Arizona home-price surge leads US

It's mostly because of 3Q strength in the depressed Phx. market
2012-11-28T00:00:00Z 2012-11-28T07:22:12Z Arizona home-price surge leads USHoward Fischer Capitol Media Services Arizona Daily Star
November 28, 2012 12:00 am  • 

PHOENIX - New figures Tuesday show that the price of an average home sold in Arizona during the third quarter of this year shot up more than 20 percent from the same period in 2011.

That not only tops the list nationwide but is at least twice as high as the rate of increase of any other state - and five times as high as the national average.

Most is due to strength in Phoenix prices. The actual increase in what all homes are worth, though, is a bit smaller.

That calculation by the Federal Housing Finance Agency is made by computing not just changes in sales price but also looking at the value of homes when they are appraised at the time of refinancing. Factoring in that number trims the overall year-over-year increase in Arizona home values to just 6.1 percent.

And even that figure is not reflective of the state as a whole.

Home values continue to climb sharply in the Phoenix metro area, which includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. But several counties, including Pima, Coconino and Yuma, still are struggling to bring values into positive territory.

Nonetheless, the recovery situation for pure home price remains brighter in Arizona than the rest of the nation, if for no other reason than the market had fallen so far, said economist Michael Orr of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

"We took much more of a hit in pricing than almost anywhere else," he said. "So it's reasonable to expect the sharp bounce back."

Orr foresees continued price increases - but not as rapid. "We can't keep going up at 2 percent per month," he said.

Simple answer is elusive

So if sales prices are increasing at double digit rates, why aren't all home values following suit?

Andrew Leventis, principal economist for the federal agency, said there's no simple answer.

Some of it may have to do with which homeowners are taking advantage of the low interest rates to refinance, he said. Leventis said if the new loans are occurring in areas of a community where real estate values remain distressed, then there will not be much change in the value of their homes from when first purchased.

He also said appraisals done on homes being refinanced may be coming in too low. And that, in turn, drags down the overall index.

By contrast, the index based on sales prices is much simpler: How has the price of a house changed from when previously sold?

Phoenix: Investor's paradise

Orr said it is not surprising that home values have not bounced as much outside of the Phoenix area.

Home prices had slid so sharply in and around Phoenix that it became an investors' paradise, he said. Investors realized that the rock-bottom sales prices presented a huge opportunity for a profit with little risk.

"Tucson didn't go down as fast and it hasn't got as much to bounce back," Orr said. "I think they're on the road to recovery. They're just on a more gentle track than Phoenix."

Even with the latest good news, the report still shows Arizona has a long way to go to recover: Homes are still selling for at least a third less than they were just five years ago. And overall values - sales plus refinancings - are about what they were in 2003.

The FHFA indexes are designed to factor out sharp adjustments based on what just happens to sell in a given quarter by looking only at repeat sales or refinancings on the same single-family properties. Nationwide, the sales-price-only index is based on more than 6 million repeat transactions; the broader index including refinancings has data from more than 46 million such deals.

Both indexes are based on data obtained from federally backed mortgages going back 37 years.

While Arizona led the pack, the report shows other states in the region also with strong gains in home prices.

Nevada posted an 8.7 percent year-over-year increase, with Utah a tenth of a point behind. California prices went up 7.2 percent.

But New Mexico weighed in with an anemic 1.5 percent annual change in prices.

Average home prices

Area Last quarter Year over year 5 years ago

U.S.* 1.1% 4.0% (15.4%)

Arizona* 5.4% 20.1% (36.7%)

Arizona** 3.7% 6.1% (39.1%)

Coconino** 2.4% (2.0%) (31.8%)

Maricopa & Pinal** 4.6% 9.5% (42.3%)

Mohave** 0.4% 3.2% (40.0%)

Pima** 1.5% (0.5%) (35.0%)

Yavapai** 3.4% 4.4% (37.0%)

Yuma** 0.0% (1.1%) (35.1%)

Notes: Negative numbers in parentheses * Purchase price comparison only; ** Includes both purchase price and appraisals on refinancing Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

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