Permits for new-home construction in the Tucson area are on pace to meet or beat forecasts, as permits were running 25 percent ahead of 2015 through November, according to a local real-estate market analyst.

November’s showing of 208 permits represented a 55 percent increase from November 2015, said Ginger Kneup of Bright Future Real Estate Research.

Kneup said the November results “may be the strongest indicator yet of a sustained return in the demand for new homes,” given an historic dip in activity for the month because of fewer business days and holiday shopping.

In the Tucson area, a total of 2,476 new-home permits were pulled this year through November, a 25.2 percent increase from the same period last year.

Kneup figures the Tucson market is on pace for 2,701 permits for all of 2016, which would blow by her forecast of 2,500 permits and edge over the 2,700 permits forecast by the University of Arizona’s Economic and Business Research Center.

New-home sale closings were up 4 percent for November, at 173, and up 13.6 percent for the year through November.

The pricing trend for new homes was essentially unchanged in November compared with the same month in 2015, with the median price falling slightly to $269,954.

But Kneup said concerns remain over the overall acceleration in new-home prices, she said, noting that October new-home prices were the highest in any month, ever.

On the resale home side, the 1,454 sales in November was up nearly 43 percent from November 2015, and the number of sales was up 15 percent on a year-over-year basis through November.

The median resale home price was $176,250 in November, up 7 percent from the prior year.

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