It's been said by some scientists that if climate change/global warming proceeds in the next 40 years as it has over the past 20 or so years, Tucson will feel like Phoenix by the mid to late 20th century.
Now, however, the website Climate Central has gone one step further. It released an interactive map last Friday warning that by 2100, Tucson will reach Mideast-style discomfort levels.
The map is national, and is named "1,001 Blistering Cities," after the number of cities whose future temperatures it forecasts.
From an average summertime high of about 99 degrees F today, Tucson's average summertime high temperature of 2100 is expected to be 109. That's today's average summertime high temperature of the affluent Middle East nation of Abu Dhabi, Climate Central says.
Phoenix, whose average summertime high temperature is now 103.9 degrees F, will reach Kuwait City levels of 114 by 2100, the website says. Las Vegas, Nevada's average summertime high temperature is expected to reach 111 by 2100--the same as Riyadh, Saudi Arabia experiences today.
These predictions assume that greenhouse gas emissions continue rising globally as they have been over the past few decades, adds Climate Central. It calls itself, "An independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the American public."
This link takes you to a brief discussion of the research method Climate Central used to project these increases. It also warns that to some extent, we're already "locked in" to a pattern of increasing temperatures for some time to come, regardless of whether the world's governments can reach agreement on some form of fossil fuel emission cuts in the coming years.