How Republicans' chances stack up for 2014

2013-08-07T00:00:00Z How Republicans' chances stack up for 2014Ramesh Ponnuru Bloomberg News Arizona Daily Star
August 07, 2013 12:00 am  • 

In the past few weeks, the U.S. Senate races of 2014 have started to take shape.

Elizabeth Cheney, daughter of the former vice president, announced that she would take on Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi in a Republican primary. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky got a challenger, too, in businessman Matt Bevin. And Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., has decided to run against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor.

What's going to get the most attention, appropriately, is whether Republicans can retake the Senate. (More on that in a bit.) But there are other questions at stake in the election, and we'll find out some answers as the races develop.

First, is President Obama's health-care law going to be a hit or a flop? And will Republicans finally offer an alternative? Liberals think that as the law is put in place, people will appreciate their new benefits and support for it will rise. Conservatives think the start will be something between a disappointment and a disaster. If they're right, the best bet for Democrats will be to change the subject to Republicans' lack of a plan.

If red-state Democrats such as Pryor and Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana start running away from it - declaring their support for delaying some of its provisions, for example - we'll know conservatives are winning the argument.

Second, is there going to be a resurgence of hawks in the Republican Party? Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has pulled the party in his direction; it's more skeptical of foreign interventions and worried about civil liberties than it was during George W. Bush's presidency. Cotton and Cheney are as youthful and energetic as Paul but on the other side of these debates.

Third, how do conservatives really feel about Republican leaders? A vocal contingent of them considers McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and the rest worthless sellouts who are at odds with grass-roots sentiment. This group is backing Bevin. The Kentucky primary will show us how many troops each side of this intraparty feud really commands.

Fourth, has the GOP learned from the races it threw away in 2010 and 2012? It could have won several Senate seats had it nominated merely mediocre candidates rather than disastrous ones. Rep. Paul Broun, running for the Senate in Georgia, has a habit of mentioning Obama in close proximity to words like "Hitler" and "Soviet," and says the big-bang theory and evolution are "lies straight from the pit of hell." If Republicans pick him, they will show they've learned nothing - and that they no longer have any safe Senate seats.

Fifth, will there be a "wave" in which most of the competitive races break to one party or the other? It may be that Republicans now have a strong advantage in midterm elections, in which a lot fewer Americans vote than presidential elections. If Democrats can bring their edge in turning out voters from 2012 to the midterms, on the other hand, we could see a wave for them.

Sixth - the big one - will control of the Senate flip to the Republicans? The map favors them: Twenty-one Democratic seats will be up for election in 2014, compared with 14 Republican ones, and Republicans need a net gain of only six to get a majority. But the map favored Republicans in 2006 and 2012, too, and they managed to lose ground both times.

Republicans are well-positioned to win seats from Democrats who are retiring in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. But they aren't running heavyweight candidates in Iowa or Michigan, where Democratic retirements have also created opportunities.

Republicans also have no strong candidate yet in Minnesota, where Sen. Al Franken is nearing the end of a first term he barely won in the 2008 Democratic landslide. Alaska Democrat Mark Begich, another bare winner in 2008, doesn't have a challenger worth sweating over yet, either.

Based on the way the races look now, then, a GOP Senate takeover is unlikely. Too much would have to go just right for it to happen. But that assessment is subject to revision - especially if Obamacare stays unpopular and the Republicans get their act together.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a Bloomberg View columnist, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior editor at the National Review.

Copyright 2014 Arizona Daily Star. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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