The generation growing up today may recall the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and be more likely to pursue careers and live in less-densely-packed places like Tucson, a report from Moody’s Analytics says.
Tucson has been named among the top 10 cities best positioned to thrive following the pandemic.
The report, from Moody’s Analytics, argues that the generation growing up today may recall the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and be more likely to pursue careers and live in less-densely-packed places.
In addition to population density, the report takes into consideration the share of jobs requiring a college or graduate degree in 100 metro areas — an indicator of an economy’s ability to provide high-paying jobs to would-be residents.
It also looked at cities’ share of residents with a college degree or higher.
“Tucson is high on the list because of its very low population density and relatively high levels of educational attainment,” said Adam Kamins, senior regional economist at Moody’s Analytics and author of the report “The Next Recovery: A Regional Perspective.”
Tucson is the only Arizona city in the top 10 list, joined by locations like Washington, D.C.; San Jose, California; and Salt Lake City, Utah.
Though Washington, D.C., is among the more densely populated metro areas in the country, its extremely high educational attainment and lower density than other big northeast metro areas put it in better shape than the rest of its region.
Cities ranked as the 10 worst-positioned to thrive include Los Angeles; McAllen, Texas; New York City; and Miami.
“There are no winners when a global pandemic sends the economy into recession, but it is already clear that some parts of the country will be more deeply scarred,” Kamins wrote.
“New York City’s greatest asset is a large, skilled workforce that is drawn to the fast-paced and highly interactive nature of life in the Big Apple. But activities such as riding the subway, dining in crowded restaurants, and attending Broadway shows may be viewed as inherently risky for some time, consistent with the city’s status as the single most economically exposed metro area or division.”
While places like New York City, Boston and San Francisco are resilient and will eventually recover, the report says out-migration could pick up in the medium term, something firms may want to take note of.
“Firms will need to follow those workers, which could sustain a shift in regional patterns,” the report says. “Places that are more spacious, rely more heavily on car travel, and provide ample access to single-family housing are likely to emerge as more attractive as a result, especially among those who choose to bypass the highly urbanized Northeast.”
Cities identified as being well positioned to thrive may have been poised to, or were already leading the way in 2020, the report says.
A similar sentiment was shared by George Hammond, director of the Economic and Business Research Center in the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management, late last month.
Assuming the virus is under control by year’s end — which isn’t clear as many scientists predict a resurgence of the outbreak this fall or winter — recovery from the COVID-19 recession locally is expected to be more rapid than the slow crawl back from the depths of the Great Recession, Hammond said.
“Once we get past the shock this year, the recovery should be solid,” Hammond said. “Arizona was in very good shape before the outbreak and once the outbreak is under control, growth will accelerate significantly.”
Tucson, coronavirus
Erika Munoz, owner of Seis Kitchen, hands over a bag of meals to Michael Gallagher Carondelet, a registered nurse at St. Joseph's Hospital, to distribute to other nurses and hospital workers, on April 23, 2020. The donation was made in conjunction with A+C (Athletes/Artists+Causes) Foundation's “Project Frontline.” In two deliveries, 400 meals (200 poc chuck chicken and 200 puerco verde burritos) will be given to medical personnel at Carondelet St. Joseph’s Hospital. The particular donation was made possible by the Houston Astros' Pitching Coach Brent Strom, who lives in Tucson.
Tucson, coronavirus
Hospital workers wheel in carts full of catered meals donated by Seis Kitchen to Carondelet St. Joseph's Hospital, on April 23, 2020. The donation was made in conjunction with A+C (Athletes/Artists+Causes) Foundation's “Project Frontline.” In two deliveries, 400 meals (200 poc chuck chicken and 200 puerco verde burritos) will be given to medical personnel at Carondelet St. Joseph’s Hospital. The particular donation was made possible by the Houston Astros' Pitching Coach Brent Strom, who lives in Tucson.
Tucson, coronavirus
Kristi Hall, a sixth grade teacher at Desert Sky Middle School, participates in planning a lesson with a fellow teacher on Zoom, at her home on April 17, 2020. Schools in the Vail School District are supposed to open in July due to their year-round school calendar. Plans are being made for the possibility of students returning to the physical classroom.
Tucson, coronavirus
Bry Kelley, a warehouse assistant, places a pallet filled with food down next to other items donated to the Community Food Bank of Southern Arizona on on April 21, 2020. Forty-one thousand pounds of flour, pasta and canned goods were donated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The donation is part of an ongoing global effort by the church to address immediate needs of people and orgainzations due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
Tucson, coronavirus
A pallet of food is placed down next to other items donated to the Community Food Bank of Southern Arizona on on April 21, 2020. Forty-one thousand pounds of flour, pasta and canned goods were donated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The donation is part of an ongoing global effort by the church to address immediate needs of people and orgainzations due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
Tucson, coronavirus
Christian Bergman, 4th year University of Arizona medical student, takes the temperature of a patient outside the Z Mansion, 288 N. Church Ave., in Tucson, Ariz., on April 19, 2020. Medical students from the University of Arizona and other universities volunteer to help the homeless population with the growing concerns of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) within the homeless population. “This is a vulnerable population in our community; they can’t defend themselves in a society already running short on supplies and resources,” said Bergman. Medical students and medical personal help by giving out food, drinks with electrolytes and masks to the homeless. Those who are sick, medically impaired or have been exposed to those with COVID-19 are isolated outdoors in tents on the property. As of Sunday April 19, there were 13 individuals whom are isolated in tents.
Tucson, coronavirus
Lekha Chesnick, 1st year medical student at Burrell College of Osteopathic Medicine, talks with a homeless man (whom choose to not give his name) outside of the Z Mansion, 288 N. Church Ave., in Tucson, Ariz., on April 19, 2020. Medical students from the University of Arizona and other universities volunteer to help the homeless population with the growing concerns of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) within the homeless population. Medical students and medical personal help by giving out food, drinks with electrolytes and masks to the homeless. Those who are sick, medically impaired or have been exposed to those with COVID-19 are isolated outdoors in tents on the property. As of Sunday April 19, there were 13 individuals whom are isolated in tents.
Tucson, coronavirus
Christian Bergman, 4th year University of Arizona medical student, checks on a patient outside the Z Mansion, 288 N. Church Ave., in Tucson, Ariz., on April 19, 2020. Medical students from the University of Arizona and other universities volunteer to help the homeless population with the growing concerns of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) within the homeless population. “This is a vulnerable population in our community; they can’t defend themselves in a society already running short on supplies and resources,” said Bergman. Medical students and medical personal help by giving out food, drinks with electrolytes and masks to the homeless. Those who are sick, medically impaired or have been exposed to those with COVID-19 are isolated outdoors in tents on the property. As of Sunday April 19, there were 13 individuals whom are isolated in tents.
Tucson, coronavirus
Elliott Dumont, owner of Roadrunner Bicycles, 6177 E. Broadway Blvd., works on a customer's bike on April 22, 2020. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has not slowed down bike shops. With many people at home, they are bringing bicycles for repairs and buying new ones for exercise. Dumont says he's booked out till the first week of May for tuneups on bikes.
Tucson, coronavirus
Elliot DuMont, owner of Roadrunner Bicycles, 6177 E. Broadway Blvd., far left, helps Ethan Sasz, far right, and his son, Evan, 10, with a mountain bike purchase on April 22, 2020. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has not slowed down bike shops. With many people at home, they are bringing bicycles for repairs and buying new ones for exercise. Dumont says he's booked out till the first week of May for tuneups on bikes.
Tucson, coronavirus
Marcella Montoya waits in her vehicle as general manger David Kessler brings out her order, as Bear Canyon Pizza serving their customers despite COVID-19 restrictions, April 22, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
Tucson, coronavirus
Kitchen manger Koa Hoffmann tosses dough while working up a crust for a call-in order as he and few others keep cooking at Bear Canyon Pizza despite COVID-19 restrictions, April 22, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
Tucson, coronavirus
Alvaro Enciso, a local artist, works in one of his studios at his home on April 9, 2020. Every Tuesday Enciso travels into the Sonoran desert to post crosses where migrants have died after crossing illegally over the U.S./Mexico border as part of a project he's titled Donde Mueren Los Suenos / Where Dreams Die. With the outbreak of the coronavirus disease his six year project is on hold and instead he works on other artwork at home.
Tucson, coronavirus
Dolly Spalding works on a pen and ink drawing in her apartment at the Redondo Tower Apartments on April 7, 2020. During her quarantine, Spalding has been creating drawings of all the Greek goddesses. She is collaborating with Emlyn Boyle, an artist from Ireland, and plans to publish a book with Boyle's writings.
In this Series
May's Tucson-area coronavirus coverage: Cases rise, judge rules that state can keep nursing home data from public
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