Two new reports suggest Arizonans will be among the least likely to get immunized against COVID-19 once a vaccine becomes available.
A poll released Tuesday, Sept. 15 by OH Predictive Insights finds 38% of Arizonans surveyed said they would get the shots if offered.
An identical number said they would refuse, even if the shot was offered for free.
That compares with national surveys suggesting about half of Americans would get the vaccine, with about 20% saying they would refuse.
Separately, the financial advice website WalletHub finds only nine states where the rate of people already getting vaccinated for existing diseases is lower than here. Among children and teens, the vaccination rate is even lower than that, with Arizona fifth from the bottom, WalletHub says.
With the record showing Arizonans tend to be more distrustful of inoculations in general, that suggests the refusal rate here for a COVID-19 vaccine would be higher than in most of the rest of the country.
All this comes as data shows the coronavirus may once again be on the upswing in Arizona.
New numbers show the state’s R-naught figure at 1.05.
That number represents the effective reproduction rate of the virus, meaning how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a given area. Values over 1.0 mean more cases are likely; numbers below 1.0 show a declining spread.
That 1.05 is the highest in the state since June 18, right before Gov. Doug Ducey conceded he had made a mistake in allowing certain businesses to reopen and ordered many of them to shut. The state now is allowing more businesses to operate, however, albeit under certain restrictions, as the R-number slides back up.
On Monday, gubernatorial press aide Patrick Ptak sought to downplay the increase.
“The model is sensitive to days with high reports of cases or low lab numbers, which may not provide the full picture when comparing to all data,” he said.
But it was Ducey who touted the importance of the R-number in late July, highlighting it when it dropped to 0.81.
The rate has been on an upswing since then. And there are now 32 states with lower R-numbers.
Ptak pointed to other “encouraging signs” like a decreasing percentage of tests for the virus that come back positive and a low hospitalization rate of people with COVID-19-like symptoms. But he conceded the data show the virus is still circulating.
All that then goes to the question of whether Arizonans facing the risk of infection will roll up their sleeves for a COVID-19 vaccine.
The WalletHub findings in particular underline what has become a political issue in Arizona.
It looked at what is known as the “combined 7 vaccine series” which includes protection for a host of diseases including diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, hepatitis B, pneumonia, chickenpox and a certain strain of flu. It found 66.5% of Arizonans ages 35 months to 19 years were vaccinated, putting Arizona fifth from the bottom.
Part of that likely relates to state laws on what vaccines are required before a child can attend schools. All states have medical exemptions and most have religious exemptions.
But Arizona is among only 15 states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, that allows parents to opt out strictly for personal, moral or other beliefs.
Some state legislators don’t think even that goes far enough.
Last year, Rep. Nancy Barto, R-Phoenix, pushed several measures that public health advocates said could have resulted in fewer children being inoculated, including one that would have eliminated a requirement that parents sign a state-prepared exemption form that acknowledges the risk to their children for refusing to inoculate, including serious injury and death. Barto called the form government coercion.
Another would have mandated that parents be given extensive information about the risks of vaccines. A third would have required parents be told they have the option of having their children tested first, ahead of any vaccinations, to see if they already have immunity.
All the bills faltered after Ducey said he would veto them.
“The governor is pro-vaccination,” Ptak said Monday. “He encourages all parents to vaccinate their kids.”
He had no comment about the current low vaccination rates.
As to a COVID-19 vaccine, Ptak said the governor wants to be “ready and prepared” when one becomes available.
Ducey has said in the past he does not support mandated vaccines.
State Rep. Kelly Townsend, R-Mesa, said Monday concerns remain, especially now that Ducey has declared a public health emergency. One provision of that law allows the governor to mandate vaccinations to those who “may reasonably be expected to be exposed” to certain highly contagious and highly fatal diseases.
Townsend said she doesn’t expect Ducey to exercise that power.
Her bigger concern is on the commercial level.
She pointed out that businesses already refuse service to patrons who are not wearing masks. Townsend fears that would extend to those who have not been inoculated.
And if it seems like that would be impossible for business owners to enforce, she pointed to research being done at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It would not only deliver vaccines but plant fluorescent “quantum dots” beneath the skin that emit near-infrared light detected by a specially equipped smartphone to show who has been inoculated.
Tucson sees surge in vehicle, motorcycle fatalities despite virus-related decrease in traffic
Tucson’s streets have been less busy but more deadly during the coronavirus pandemic, police data shows.
Fatal car and motorcycle crashes have more than tripled so far this year compared to last year despite less traffic on the roads, Tucson Police Department statistics show.
Eighteen drivers and passengers have died so far this year in vehicle crashes other than motorcycles, compared to five such deaths in the same period last year, the data show.
Motorcycle fatalities, which are recorded separately, also have spiked within city limits to 17 deaths this year compared to five this time last year.
Traffic deaths were down slightly last year in Tucson from the previous year.
Meanwhile, pedestrian deaths have declined to 13 so far this year compared to 17 last year. And one bicyclist has died, compared to zero at this point in 2019.
Wildfires such as the Bighorn Fire north of Tucson leave the ground charred and unable to absorb water, which can increase flood risks. “Even …
Nearly a dozen U.S.states have seen death rates rise in lighter traffic, according to the nonprofit National Safety Council, though the increase has not been statewide in Arizona.
The Tucson trend came as a surprise to police Capt. Diana Duffy, the department’s traffic safety coordinator.
“I think we all expected accidents to decrease and deaths to decrease,” Duffy said in an interview. “Instead collisions are down and fatalities are up.”
It turns out that when streets are empty, some drivers tend to get lead feet.
“Excessive speed” was the top factor in most of the recent road deaths, Duffy said.
Impairment also was a factor in some cases, she said, and noted a national survey that found a 200% surge in alcohol sales this past spring.
TPD is aiming to curb the death toll by assigning motorcycle officers to patrol near crash-prone intersections, Duffy said.
It’s hard to say how much lighter Tucson traffic has become, though it “absolutely” is occurring, said Blake Olofson, a traffic engineer at City Hall.
A precise count would be expensive and impractical because a full-scale count typically is done once a year, he said.
But some trends emerged in the limited research that exists, a joint study between the city and the University of Arizona that used location data from smart phones to assess Tucson’s traffic capacity.
The research showed a noticeable decrease in traffic on Tucson streets when various stay-at-home orders were in place from around mid-March through mid-May.
The trend to higher traffic fatality rates does not extend to roads policed by the Pima County Sheriff’s Department or by Arizona state troopers, those agencies said.
Fatal crashes on county roads stand at 18 so far this year, about the same as last year, officials said.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Department of Public Safety, which polices state highways, has seen a steep decline in fatalities. The death toll so far this year is 160 compared to 200 in 2019, officials said.
At least 11 states from coast to coast have seen spikes in traffic deaths, the National Safety Council said.
The council released a preliminary estimate last month based on April data from all 50 states showing a 36% spike in fatality rate per miles, as the number of miles driven dropped 40%.
In a statement on the safety council’s website, the group’s president and CEO urged drivers to be civic-minded in the era of COVID19.
“Right now, in the midst of a global pandemic, we should take it as our civic duty to drive safely,” Lorraine M. Martin said.
“If we won’t do it for ourselves we should do it for our first responders, our law enforcement and our health-care workers who are rightly focused on coronavirus patients and should not be overwhelmed by preventable car crashes.”
Six sites throughout Tucson handed out masks to residents as a part of the citywide #MaskUpTucson campaign. Each site, located in a respective…