Oregon, Georgia, Miami and OSU are projected 1st round byes in opening CFP rankings

Undefeated Oregon got top billing. The selection committee liked Ohio State just a touch more than Georgia in its top 25 — the first of six weekly polls the committee will put out.

Other than that, the panel’s top 12 looked exactly like the top dozen in the most recent AP poll, which has been shaken up almost weekly thanks to a bundle of upsets that left the mighty SEC, of all conferences, without a single undefeated team.

The near mirror image of AP and the College Football Playoff polls meant Alabama, despite its two losses, would be in the bracket at No. 11 if it came out this week, as would Boise State, the leader of the Mountain West Conference, which came in at No. 12 and would earn an automatic spot as the fifth-best conference champion.

“The summary is, Boise State is an impressive team,” said Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, who serves as chair of the selection committee.

Maunel explained Ohio State was ranked No. 2 because its only loss came by one point to Oregon. Both the Buckeyes and third-ranked Bulldogs were rated ahead of undefeated Miami most likely thanks to strength of schedules that were much tougher than that of the ‘Canes, who were ranked fourth.

“We’re splitting hairs as far as looking at two great teams,” Manuel said.

The rankings will come out each week through Dec. 8, when the final list will decide the bracket for the playoffs. Those start Dec. 20-21, with the 5-12 seeds in action at the better seed’s home field, and close with the national title game in Atlanta on Jan. 20.

The rankings don’t directly correlate to where the teams would fall in the bracket. The four best-ranked conference champions receive first-round byes, which according to this ranking would belong to Oregon (ranked 1), Georgia (3), Miami (4) and BYU (9).

The committee chose Alabama over a handful of one-loss teams, but the Tide’s strength of schedule clearly helped them leap over teams like No. 13 SMU (ACC), No. 17 Iowa State (Big 12) and No. 18 Pitt (ACC), who play in weaker conferences.

The rest of the teams in the fictional first-week bracket and their rankings: No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Indiana and No. 10 Notre Dame.

First team out was No. 13 SMU while Army, with an 8-0 record and leading the American Athletic Conference, barely squeaked into the rankings at No. 25.

First-round matchups

ESPN is paying billions to televise these games, so it got exclusive rights to the bracket reveal, filling the show with analysis and lots of references to “America finally finding out” — a nod to the opening rankings being released on election night. The network chose to fill in the bracket as it went along, which made things a little confusing — a second-ranked team really seeded third, and so-on. But here’s what those first-round games would be (with seedings, not rankings):

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State: Would be the Broncos biggest postseason game since beating Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

No. 11 Alabama at No. 5 Texas: Longhorns win over ‘Bama in 2023 punctured myth of Tide invincibility.

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State: Feels like we need Keith Jackson for this one. Anyone remember the 1992 Snow Bowl?

No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee: Hoosiers entry to the big-time (football) would come in front of 100,000 on Rocky Top.

What will change?

LSU is ranked 15 and hosts Alabama on Saturday in what feels like an elimination game for the loser.

Also this week, Georgia plays at No. 17 Ole Miss; the Rebels two losses have both come by a field goal — to Kentucky and LSU.

Indiana hosts Michigan and is favored by 12 1/2, barreling toward a Nov. 23 matchup against Ohio State.