Three reasons why the Pac-12 is down this year

SEASON-WHO-MUST-NOT-BE-NAMED 

By now, most have erased it from memory.

The-season-who-must-not-be-named. The Lord Voldemort of recent Pac-12 basketball history.

The 2011-12 season was so bad that the Pac-12's regular season champion, Washington, did not even make the NCAA tournament.

The Pac-12 tournament champion, Colorado, was a No. 11 seed. The conference only had one more NCAA team, and it wasn’t Arizona or UCLA — it was California, a 12-seed. The Pac-12 had as many NCAA tournament teams as the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

If that was the Pac-12’s apocalypse, then this season is its sort of post-apocalyptic wasteland. 

PAC-12 MIGHT HAVE JUST 3 TEAMS IN TOURNAMENT 

What this season has that 2011-12 didn’t, though, is this year’s iteration of both Utah and Arizona, and maybe Stanford.

The No. 6 Wildcats are 20-2 (8-1 Pac-12), and final four contenders. The No. 13 Utes are a surprise 17-4 (7-2), and threats to make a deep tournament run. Stanford isn’t quite on that level, but at 15-6 (6-3), and with a veteran-laden roster, they’re a likely NCAA team.

Those, ladies and gentlemen, might be your only NCAA tournament teams from the Pac-12, barring an unexpected run through the Pac-12 tournament or a miraculous late season spurt from UCLA or Oregon. 

REST OF PAC-12 A MESS

What about the rest of the Pac-12’s jumbled mess?

There’s three teams at 5-4 (Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA), two at 4-5 (Colorado and Washington State), three at 3-6 (ASU, California and Washington) and one at 1-8 (USC). Every one of those teams have seven or more losses.

“I think the league is good,” said Tad Boyle, Colorado’s coach. “I don’t think we performed extremely well in the non-conference portion of our schedules.”

A sampling of those losses: Washington (14-7) to Stony Brook, California (13-9) to Cal State Bakersfield, Washington State (10-11) to UC Santa Barbara, USC (9-12) to Portland State and Akron, ASU (11-11) to Lehigh, Colorado (11-10) to George Washington and Hawaii, and, best of all, Oregon State (14-7) to Quinnipiac.

So what’s wrong with the Pac-12, outside of the Utes, Wildcats and Cardinal?

Here’s a closer look. 

1. TALENT DEFECTION 

Six Pac-12 teams made the tournament a year ago, an three of them advanced to the Sweet 16. In other words, there was talent: Eight Pac-12 players were taken in last year's NBA draft, the conference’s biggest number since nine went in 2009, the James Harden/Jordan Hill year. Two of them were freshmen, two sophomores, two juniors and two seniors. The year before, seven players were drafted into the NBA.

“We lost some terrific players from last year,” UA coach Sean Miller said. “When you have that many players depart it’s not easy to go quickly to the next year and be the same. So, we’re not as strong right now, but I think we have three rock solid teams near the top.”

Added Ernie Kent, in his first year at Washington State: “This conference was decimated a few years back with the NBA coming in and bringing so many guys into the draft.”

Heading into this season: 

• Arizona State lost its top three scorers, two of whom (Jahii Carson, Jordan Bachynski) were all-conference selections. 
• Oregon (15-7) lost eight of its top 10 scorers, three of them via dismissal.
• Oregon State lost its top five, including all-Pac-12 pick Roberto Nelson.
• UCLA (13-9) lost five of its top eight players, including all-conference picks Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson and all-freshman selection Zach LaVine.
• USC lost its top four.
• Washington lost three of its top six, including all-Pac-12 player C.J. Wilcox.
• The outliers: Colorado and California returned four of their top five scorers, and Washington State returned five of its top seven.
• The winners: Arizona returned six of its eight best players, Utah retained its top six and Stanford three of its best six. 

2. NEW COACHES 

A few teams are in rebuild mode with new coaches coming in.

Wayne Tinkle at Oregon State and Kent at Washington State inherited the Pac-12’s worst teams from a year ago. Cuonzo Martin came into a California team with some talent, but they haven’t put it together.

USC's Andy Enfield has yet to find his footing in Year 2 of the Trojans' overhaul. Steve Alford’s UCLA team has as talented of a starting five as anyone, but the Bruins have been been inconsistent.

“Whether it be Ernie Kent at Washington State Oregon State with Wayne (Tinkle), those guys are doing a great job in their first year under tough circumstances to really get their programs launched," Miller said. "I think the future is very bright.” 

3. ROYAL RUMBLE 

The middle of the Pac is beating each other up, big-time.

Try and follow this train of thought:

• Colorado beat UCLA, then lost to them by 13 points in a rematch.
• UCLA beat Stanford and Utah, but lost to Oregon by 18.
• Oregon beat Oregon State, but lost to Washington State by nine.
• Washington State beat Stanford, but lost to Colorado by 32 and Oregon State by 15.
• Oregon State upset Arizona, but lost to ASU by 18.
• ASU beat Cal by 35, but lost to Arizona by 24, Utah by 17 and Stanford by 19.
• USC has lost to everyone they’ve played besides Cal, who the Trojans beat by 14.
• Cal lost to UCLA by 19, but beat Washington twice.
• Washington beat Oregon State by 13, but lost to Washington State.

“I think this early in conference play a lot of teams think they can compete with all the teams in the conference,” said Johnny Dawkins, Stanford’s coach. “It’s a very balanced conference where everybody is capable of beating everyone.”

The verdict: It's not quite 2011-12 level bad this year. But it's certainly not good.