Ranking the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2020

Analysis by Jason Snyder / Lee Digital Center
May 6, 2020
May 6, 2020 Updated Jul 6, 2026

The coronavirus pandemic, a stalled economy and sinking poll numbers for President Donald Trump and down-ballot Republicans means new life for Democrats hoping to take control of the Senate in January 2021.

Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage heading into November's election, which means the GOP can afford to lose a net two seats (and the presidency) while still keeping control of the chamber. Democrats will need a net gain of three seats and a Joe Biden victory in the presidential race to wrest control. (They'd need a net gain of four if Trump wins reelection).

With momentum appearing to be on the Democrats' side (at the moment), here's a look at the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip this November. Note, though, that even the slightest shift in momentum toward the Republicans in coming months, and this list would change dramatically.

Early ballot returns in Pima County surprise election officials

Early ballots are being returned in Pima County at a fast clip that’s surprising election officials ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.

County officials have mailed a record 505,903 early ballots since Oct. 7. By Saturday, Oct. 17, 191,755 ballots — nearly 38% — had been received by the elections department. Election officials have also received 4,751 votes cast at six early voting sites.

“I’ve never seen early ballot numbers like this,” said F. Ann Rodriguez, who’s served as Pima County recorder for 28 years. “The one that is a surprise to us, really the biggest one, is our walk-in early voting sites. Our first day we had lines, that’s never happened before.”

She called for patience as the time between when a ballot is received and it being scanned into the tracking system is taking a little longer than usual.

The elections department is now running two shifts every day, including weekends, to get the ballots processed, starting at 6:30 a.m. and with a second shift at 1 p.m. until 8:30 p.m.

“I talked to Maricopa County, they’re having the same issue, they’re going to be putting two shifts on. But we’re far out enough away from the election that we’ll have time to catch up on this,” Rodriguez said.

On Tuesday, Oct. 20, the elections department will begin counting votes, a process that will be live-streamed 24/7 at web1.pima.gov/elections/livefeed.

Rodriguez encouraged voters who’ve received an early ballot to turn it in.

“If you decide that you don’t want to vote that early ballot that you received, and you want to go to your polling location, you become part of the problem,” Rodriguez said. “You have to stand in line, fill out a bunch of paperwork, because the poll worker says that you got an early ballot, (and) I don’t know if it’s been turned over yet.”

Those provisional ballots, Rodriguez said, are then counted following Election Day and after all early ballots dropped off at that location have been dealt with.

For voters taking a trip to early voting sites, the department has plans to open election sites the Saturday before Election Day, Oct. 31. Community members can catch any updates on the Pima County recorder’s Facebook page.

Rodriguez said voters should call the elections department at (520) 724-4350 for any ballot problems they face.