Facts and figures about global population and our crowded future
The United Nations estimates that up to 11 billion people could be alive in the year 2100. As we mark World Population Day, here are some facts and predictions about our crowded future, culled from reports and research.
China still the biggest
China is still the most populous nation in the world, with 1.4 billion people. A large segment of the population is located in urban areas in the eastern part of China.
India is on China's heels
By 2024, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. India now has 1.3 billion people, and the two nations make up 37 percent of the world’s population.
Nigeria growing quickly
Nigeria has the world’s fastest-growing population. Nigeria is seventh on the list of most populous countries, but before 2050 it will hit third place, overtaking the U.S., the United Nations predicts.
Fertility rates dropping
The Pew Research Center says population growth is expected mostly in Africa, and less in the Americas, Europe and parts of Asia, especially as families in more developed nations have fewer children than they used to do. In many countries in these regions, the total fertility rate has dropped below the “replacement rate” of about 2.1 lifetime births per woman. The total fertility rate in the U.S. fell to 1.86 in 2013.
Living longer
Substantial improvements in life expectancy have occurred in recent decades. Globally, life expectancy at birth has risen from 65 years for men and 69 years for women in 2000-2005 to 69 years for men and 73 years for women in 2010-2015, a United Nations report found.
Growing ranks of those over 80
Globally, the number of people age 80 or over is projected to triple by 2050, from 137 million in 2017 to 425 million in 2050. By 2100, the number is expected to jump to 909 million, the United Nations found. As huge numbers of people exit the workforce and spend many years in retirement, many of the positive trends spurred by falling fertility rates will be reversed, and economic growth will face a significant burden, Business Insider reports.
Young caregivers
Another worry about population change is whether there are enough young people to take care of the older generation as lifespans increase and fertility falls in some parts of the world. Fears about this are more common in Japan, South Korea, China, Germany and Spain, according to a Pew 2013 global survey.
Food shortages
At current rates of productivity growth, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to meet 15 percent of its food demand in 2030, which will require significant imports, food assistance and/or opening up new land to development that may not be suitable for sustainable production. The prediction comes from a report from the Global Harvest Initiative, a private sector agriculture group with members that include Monsanto, John Deere, DuPont and the World Wildlife Fund.
Biodiversity fears
As the human population grows and people need more room, animal and plant species face elimination. Biologist and Harvard professor E.O. Wilson estimates that species are vanishing at least 100 times faster than before the arrival of Homo sapiens. He adds: “Today as human populations expand and alter the natural environment, they are reducing biological diversity to its lowest level since the end of the Mesozoic era, 65 million years ago.”