Cardinals find a franchise QB, Patriots land a Sun Devil in Star's annual NFL mock draft

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. recently said there’s a 99.9% chance the Arizona Cardinals will select Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray with the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft, which begins Thursday in Nashville, Tennessee.

The .1% chance that it doesn’t happen is what makes this draft so intriguing.

What if the Cardinals — after all the talk linking new coach Kliff Kingsbury to the electric but undersized Murray — decide they’d rather keep Josh Rosen? Chaos would ensue. Teams could try to trade up to No. 2 to snag Murray, whose closest comp might be Michael Vick. Or Murray could slide to teams like the Raiders or Buccaneers, who currently aren’t considered to be in the first-round-QB market.

No one outside the Cardinals’ facility knows for certain what will happen — and if you believe Kingsbury’s comments from earlier this week, even they aren’t sure.

Fortunately, you don’t have to wait until 5 p.m. Thursday to find out what might happen. Four members of the Star sports staff — Michael Lev, Ryan Finley, Justin Spears and Dominic Baciocco — gathered to conduct a four-man, first-round mock draft Wednesday.

Finley had the first pick, Lev second, Baciocco third and Spears fourth. They rotated that way through the first round.

The MO for each virtual GM was taking the players we thought teams SHOULD select given their needs and who was available. To keep things simple, no trades were allowed.

With the real draft taking place in Nashville, we wanted to do our mock somewhere that felt simultaneously old school and hipster. We settled on the Welcome Diner.

Welcome to our 2019 first-round mock draft:

Finley says: New coach Kliff Kingsbury gets the player he considers the best in the draft, and the Bird Gang gets a face of the franchise to replace the aging Larry Fitzgerald. So what if the team drafted a quarterback in the first round last year and Murray comes with a pile of concerns? Arizona has to do this.

Lev says: When Ryan took Murray, the choice became easy. Bosa is the consensus best player available, and he fills a need. Some rank Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams higher, but I just can’t see the 49ers drafting another interior defensive lineman with a first-round pick after they did so in 2015, ’16 and ’17. Trading down is only an option if the Cardinals take Bosa instead of Murray.

Baciocco says: The Jets are in the “draft-the-best-available” business, but not for the right reasons. They have a ton of room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Williams will draw extra attention from opposing offensive lines, which should help create opportunities for Leonard Williams to get into the backfield while Williams plugs the interior lanes for uphill rushers.

Spears says: A year ago, the Houston defensive tackle was universally projected to be the top pick in the draft. Oliver has all of the tools and intangibles to become one of the top NFL defensive players in less than three seasons. Think of him as Aaron Donald 2.0. Oliver is 6-2, weighs 287 pounds and can play anywhere on the defensive line. Let’s just hope Jon Gruden doesn’t trade Oliver to the NFC North in four seasons.

Finley says: Bruce Arians gifts defensive coordinator Todd Bowles a playmaking linebacker in the first round. White, he of the 4.4-second 40-yard dash, is the definition of the word “swarming.”

Lev says: Unless everything we’ve been hearing lately is an elaborate misdirection — which is entirely possible — this isn’t what the Giants will do. But it’s what they should do. Haskins is a traditional pocket passer who possesses the arm strength to power the ball through the wind at MetLife Stadium. He left school after his redshirt-sophomore season with only one year of starting experience, but that’s fine; he can sit and learn during Eli Manning’s sendoff season.

Baciocco says: Gary, at 6-4, 277 pounds, has the speed and athleticism to be an exceptional addition in Sacksonville. The Jaguars logged just 37 sacks last season, ranked 22nd in the NFL, just a year removed from finishing second in the league with 55. Gary ran a 4.58 40-yard dash, second among defensive lineman at the NFL combine, and so he should help the Jags’ defense return to form.

Spears says: Sweat is a 6-6, 260-pound defensive end that ran the 40-yard dash in 4.41 seconds. That’s not a typo. Sweat had one of the most impressive combine performances, but his production on the field will place him in the top 10 on Thursday. In two seasons at Mississippi State, Sweat earned All-SEC honors and recorded 22 sacks combined in back-to-back seasons.

Finley says: Alabama’s hulking tackle told ESPN recently that playing in Buffalo would be “awesome.” For that reason alone — OK, and the fact they need protection for QB Josh Allen — the Bills grab the 300-pounder at No. 9.

Lev says: Denver has many needs, and you could put quarterback on that list if you don’t believe Joe Flacco is the long-term answer (which he isn’t). But if Missouri’s Drew Lock is truly Jay Cutler 2.0, the Broncos have been down that rocky road before. Bush makes much more sense. Georgia’s Roquan Smith thrived in Vic Fangio’s defense last year in Chicago. Bush has a similar profile.

Baciocco says: The Bengals have strong, young talent on offensive in Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, but Andy Dalton needs to be healthy and upright for Cincinnati to reap the benefits. Taylor is the best available to help those efforts.

Spears says: The Packers need weapons for Aaron Rodgers — and protection for their franchise quarterback. Wide receivers like N’Keal Harry and D.K. Metcalf will be available for Green Bay at pick No. 30, so the safe bet is to pick arguably the best lineman in the draft in Dillard. Since he played in a pass-happy system under Mike Leach at Washington State, his run blocking is a question mark. But who needs to run the ball when Rodgers is slinging it?

Finley says: Miami spent its offseason both shedding contracts — bye, Ryan Tannehill, Danny Amendola and others — and signaling its intent to “Tank for Tua,” the prospective No. 1 overall pick in 2020. What better way to build for the distant, distant future than by drafting a player who likely won’t see the field for another 18 months? Simmons is a good value play, even with his torn ACL, and his pick could set the Fins up for long-term success.

Lev says: There’s talk that the Falcons could trade into the top 10 to take Oliver. In lieu of that, we went for the best defensive tackle on the board. Atlanta ranked in the bottom third of the league in run defense and sacks last season. The Falcons have invested in speedy, undersized edge rushers. Wilkins gives them bulk (6-3, 315) and playmaking ability (40.5 career TFLs).

Baciocco says: Jordan Reed’s contract in Washington runs through 2021, but he’s as injury-prone as they come so it wouldn’t hurt to start looking ahead now. Hockenson will provide reliable and consistent output for a Redskins offense with a less than exciting quarterback situation.

Spears says: Carolina needs to replace nine-time Pro Bowler Julius Peppers, and the Panthers will do that with Burns. Burns only weighs 249 pounds, which isn’t the ideal size for an NFL edge rusher, but his versatility as an outside linebacker/defensive end hybrid makes him an intriguing prospect.

Finley says: Kyler Murray isn’t the only Sooners star with electric skills and a short stature. New York will draft — and then fall for — “Hollywood” Brown, who has the talent, charisma and speed to make fans of the G-Men forget all about Odell Whatshisname.

Lev says: Pretty simple draft strategy here — take the best offensive lineman available. It wasn’t an easy choice between Bradbury and Oklahoma’s Cody Ford, who has more size and position versatility. But while Ford has a higher upside, he also has a lower floor. The Vikings are in win-now mode, and Bradbury is a plug-and-play starter who could do for Minnesota’s shaky line what Ryan Kalil did for Carolina’s a decade ago.

Baciocco says: It wouldn’t be a bad idea to draft another weapon at wide receiver or restock the defensive line here, but Tennessee’s work building an offense for fifth-year QB Marcus Mariota goes to waste if he can’t stay healthy. Derrick Henry and Corey Davis will only get better, and the addition of Adam Humphries gives Mariota almost everything he needs. But the Titans haven’t drafted O-line help since 2016, and Mariota has never played a full season. Marcus, meet Chris.

Spears says: Although the Steelers need to replace Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, wide receivers and running backs don’t stop Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and A.J. Green twice a season. Williams is considered one of the top defensive backs in this draft class for a reason, and he should be a Day 1 starter the moment Roger Goodell calls his name.

Finley says: Seattle gave Russell Wilson a big raise, and they’ll take care of him further in the draft — just not now. Ferrell is an All-American, a Ted Hendricks Award-winner and one of the surest things in the draft. He’ll help shore up the “Legion of Boom,” or what’s left of it.

Lev says: The Ravens’ biggest need is wide receiver. But I’m not a big fan of Ole Miss’ D.K. Metcalf, the consensus No. 1 wideout whose physique and 40 time (4.33) bely flaws in his game. I considered his more productive college teammate, A.J. Brown, who has some Anquan Boldin to his game, before settling on McCoy, a low-profile recruit whom Kevin Sumlin and his staff unearthed and developed.

Baciocco says: No quarterback in the NFL was sacked more often last season than Deshaun Watson. That’s scary news for a quarterback who tore his ACL as a rookie. He’s one of the top young talents in the league right now. Priority Nos. 1, 2 and 3 for Houston fall on the offensive line.

Spears says: If Oakland drafts Ya-Sin and starts him in a secondary of Karl Joseph, Lamarcus Joyner and Gareon Conley, the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders will have a gritty group of defensive backs for at least the 2019 season.

Finley says: Philly didn’t have to travel far to scout Thornhill, who led UVa in tackles (98) and interceptions (six) in 2018. He should fit nicely on an Eagles defense that desperately needs safety help.

Lev says: Was really hoping Simmons would fall to this spot, but that turned out to be a pipe dream. Another potential match for Metcalf, but the Colts can find better value at wideout with one of their two second-round picks. Lawrence, who’s listed at 6-4, 342, gives the Colts something they currently lack: a true space eater in the middle.

Baciocco says: The Raiders on average were outscored 29-18 last season; their offense ranked 28th in the league. They can’t rely on Derek Carr and Antonio Brown to consistently make up for that margin. Oakland needs to keep putting weapons around Carr, and the versatile, 5-10, 220-pound Jacobs is a great fit.

Spears says: At 6-6, 325 pounds, Little is not, well, little. With quarterback Philip Rivers, 37, another year older, LA’s franchise player needs protection, and Little is one of the best tackle prospects in the draft. Even if he doesn’t find himself in the rotation in San Diego’s — whoops — Los Angeles’ season opener, he can remain ready on the sideline just in case either Russell Okung or Sam Tevi go down with injury.

Finley says: See, I told you Seattle would help Russell Wilson out in the first round. Risner is a 6-foot-5-inch, 312-pound tackle-slash-guard who played five seasons of college ball. And Wilson? Here’s guessing the franchise QB will by happy to throw a little Amazon stock Risner’s way.

Lev says: What a glorious outcome for Green Bay. With Justin wisely taking pass-blocking wizard Dillard at No. 12, the goal became to add a pass catcher to Aaron Rodgers’ arsenal. Fant never will be as good a blocker as Iowa teammate Hockenson, but that’s not the point here. Fant is a dynamic athlete who can line up wide and create mismatches. It’s a perfect fit.

Baciocco says: The Rams need to replace Ndamukong Suh, and they may be better off trading up to do so. But should they stay put at No. 31, one of the best available pass-rushers or lane-fillers could be Collier. He had five sacks as a senior at TCU, and his physicality won’t go unnoticed around the NFL.

Spears says: Let’s reward the defending Super Bowl champions with possibly the biggest playmaker in the draft. The Patriots have holes on offense, most notably on the offensive line and tight end. Replacing Rob Gronkowski is nearly impossible, but the Patriots patched that gap by adding Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Tom Brady is about to go from throwing to a Wildcat, to playing catch with a Sun Devil. Hopefully Harry doesn’t use the Lombardi Trophy as a baseball bat like Gronkowski.