CLEVELAND – Buffalo fans won't have to flip on the TV to see one of baseball's greatest shows this summer. They didn't need to hop on a roadie this weekend to Progressive Field. In normal times, they would have needed to drive across the Peace Bridge en route to the Rogers Centre for that burgeoning brush with greatness.
Not in the pandemic season of 2021. With the Canadian border still shut tight, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back at Sahlen Field with the Toronto Blue Jays. We don't know yet, but maybe it's for the entire summer.
Heads up on Oak Street. Heads up to the pitchers in the new bullpens in right-center field. And starting Tuesday night against the Miami Marlins, if you're one of the lucky ones in the stands – how good does that sound? – don't be caught waiting for a hot dog in the concourse and miss an at-bat.
At age 22, the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero has emerged as a bona fide star and is no longer a product of massive hype from his minor-league days that initially took him through the corner of Washington and Swan.
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If you were picking an MVP in the American League for the first two months of the season, there's not much debate.
Guerrero entered Saturday's play third in the American League in batting (.331) and RBIs (41) and as the majors' co-leader in home runs (16). He also led the AL in on-base percentage (.440), slugging (.652) and OPS (1.092).
"It's awesome, man. It's so cool to see how hard he hits the ball. It never ceases to amaze me," said Blue Jays pitcher Ross Stripling. "... It's just effortless. He's a hard worker and it's fun to watch him with his smile on his face all the time. Easy to compare him to a guy like (Fernando) Tatis that I played against in San Diego.
"Very similar personalities. They both hit the ball so hard, play the game the right way. And they're great for baseball. So it's cool to have a front row seat to it every day."
Even without the injured George Springer, the Toronto lineup has been one of the game's best all season. The Jays are second in the majors and lead the American League in home runs (75 entering Saturday). In virtually every major category, they're battling with Boston, Houston and Atlanta for the lead among clubs.
Guerrero is obviously a huge reason why.
"I'm really not altogether that excited to see him if he's hot," deadpanned Cleveland manager Terry Francona, whose club faced Guerrero over the weekend for the first time since 2019. "I'd rather see him when he's struggling because I know how good he is. The top of that lineup is really good and feeling pretty good about themselves.
"He's good for the game, I agree with that. He's not necessarily good for the team he's playing because you're trying to beat them. But he's such a talent and he certainly feels good about himself right now as he should."
With the Jays playing the first two months of home games at their spring home in Dunedin, Fla., Guerrero had a three-homer game in April against Washington as two of the blows came off Nationals ace Max Scherzer. In an extra-inning loss Monday against Tampa Bay, he singlehandedly helped the Blue Jays erase a 5-0 deficit with two bombs, one a 464-footer to left and the other a clutch two-run shot in the eighth to tie the game.
Guerrero burst out of the batter's box jumping, screaming and exhorting his dugout after that one. He doesn't consider himself a home run hitter per se and isn't trying to go deep. But in that moment, he knew what his swing meant to the game.
"Things happen in the game, emotions," Guerrero said through an interpreter. "At that moment, we already lost three games against Tampa and I had the chance to tie it up. It was a big lift for us, for myself, for the team. We want to go out there and and we're trying to win the game, no matter what. It was a lot of emotions when I hit that home run. I was looking for a pitch that I wanted, he gave it to me and I put a good contact on the ball."
Finally matching the hype
We've seen Vladdy Jr. in Buffalo before, of course, as a hot prospect and he didn't disappoint here, going .336-6-16 in 30 games for the Herd in 2018 before leaving for Toronto for good the following April.
For his first two years in the big leagues, Guerrero didn't match the hype but you had to remember he was in the big leagues at 20. In 2019, he still hit .272-15-69 and wowed the game with his 91-homer barrage in the All-Star Home Run Derby held in Cleveland.
It's hard not to put Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on fast forward.
Last year's shortened season was a turning point. Guerrero showed up at summer camp heavy. Way too heavy. Some say his weight was in the range of 285 pounds, obviously too much for a 6-foot-2 player. He was sluggish in the field, unable to play third base and struggling to learn the nuances at first. He played all 60 games as the Blue Jays got to the postseason for the first time since 2016 but the numbers (.262-9-33) were pedestrian.
When the Blue Jays arrived in Buffalo in mid-August, he was batting .222. Teoscar Hernandez was the Blue Jays' biggest slugger last season. Fellow prospects Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio seemed more polished.
While still in Buffalo last September, Guerrero decided he had to make changes to his diet and his fitness routines. Explained Guerrero during a video call with Toronto reporters earlier this year: "One day, I woke up from bed, looked in the mirror and said, ‘That’s it.'
Working with a personal trainer, the results have been enormous as Guerrero has shed more than 40 pounds. The sore knees that bothered him last September in Buffalo, especially on cool nights, are not a factor anymore. He still loves his grandmother's cooking, but portion control and cutting out late-night meals and snacking are life lessons that have made a major impact.
"There's no challenge too great for him," said Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins. "He embraces them and enjoys that. He enjoys the competition. He enjoys being out there against the best pitchers in the world with a smile on his face, with belief that he's going to be effective and it's not something you're born with. ... It's something that he's worked hard to earn. And it's a lot of fun to watch."
The Blue Jays are enthralled by the way Guerrero has quickly matured as a hitter, too. Only seven of his home runs this year have gone to left and left-center field. He's as comfortable going the other way with power as he is to his pull side.
"It's all confidence. When the ball goes the other way I'm confident, trusting my hands," he said. "That's what I think is helping me out to hit the ball the other way."
One reason it's likely to keep going is because Guerrero is not a free swinger. He entered the weekend with 32 strikeouts and 31 walks in his 217 plate appearances. Power hitters by nature have a huge strikeouts to walks disparity. Guerrero does not.
As noted by FanGraphs, 14.8% of Guerrero's plate appearances end in strikeouts and 14.4% end in walks. By comparison, the comparable figures for Yankees slugger Aaron Judge are 25.9% and 13.7% and Tatis is similar at 25.9/12.2. Los Angeles Angels phenom Shoehei Ohtani is at 29.7/7.2.
And don't think Guerrero thrived just because of the cozy and wind-swept dimensions of Dunedin either. Guerrero leads the majors in times on base (95) and runs created (53). And according to FanGraphs' Runs Created+ metric, which factors in ballpark effects, Guerrero is the majors' runaway leader with 196. Judge is next among AL hitters at just 174.
"This is something that all of us knew he was capable of so it's not really that surprising honestly," said Bichette, who has played with Guerrero at every step of the minors. "He's fun to watch. He can do something special every time he goes up there."
Easygoing is his nature
Vladimir Guerrero, right, poses with Rasmus Dahlin before the Sabres' draft pick's ceremonial first pitch in Sahlen Field on Aug. 11, 2018.
When Guerrero landed in Buffalo in 2018, he was already the talk of the minors after becoming a .400 hitter in Double-A, unheard-of even for just 60 games. His arrival in Buffalo brought a horde of reporters from Toronto – back when they could still come, remember – as well as applause and anticipation for every at-bat not seen since Jeff Manto was threatening the left-field screen every night in the late '90s.
A few weeks after the 2018 NHL draft was held in Dallas, the Bisons invited Sabres No. 1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin to the ballpark to throw a ceremonial first pitch and learned a lesson in Guerrero's easygoing personality.
"You had two top prospects in our town, two sports coming together," recalled Bisons assistant general manager Brad Bisbing, the team's longtime media relations point man. "I was super pumped to get that picture for all-time. I made sure they brought a Sabres jersey and I wanted Vladdy in a Bisons jersey."
Around 20 minutes before the start of the game, Guerrero emerged from the dugout to meet Dahlin and get the picture before Dahlin's pitch. There was one problem.
"I totally forget. It was a Superhero Night and Vladdy was wearing a Celery jersey," Bisbing said. "I couldn't have that but guys pushing that close to a game are usually in that mindset. So I told him and Vladdy was like, 'no problem.' Right before a game, he runs back in, changes into a Bisons uniform, comes out to take the photo and goes back to put the Celery jersey back on. He won me right there."
Guerrero has maintained his easygoing way in his early tour through the big leagues. Pregame dugout dances with teammates are a norm. He became a bit of a viral hit a couple of weeks ago for mimicking closer Jordan Romano's eccentricities on the mound – during the game while he was playing off first base. And Friday night in Cleveland, with temperatures in the 40s and wind-driven rain falling most of the game, Guerrero smiled as he fought off the conditions and made a pair of strong catches of high pop-ups in foul territory with his back to the plate.
Guerrero's offseason work increased his flexibility to help his defense. His stretches at first base soaked up most balls in the dirt.
"We knew that the more he plays there, the better he was going to get because he's got the hands already to begin with," said Manager Charlie Montoyo. "And I'm calling it right now, one of these days, he's gonna win a Gold Glove because he's that good. He's got those hands. He's playing great. Those plays were not easy.
"Last year was more about (learning when) to go for balls in the hole, the timing, all that stuff. And now that he is playing every day, he is comfortable."
At the plate, Guerrero was mighty comfortable last year in Buffalo. He batted .323 with five home runs and 23 RBIs in 26 games at Sahlen Field in 2020 – far above his .213 mark on the road. Guerrero's slugging (.566/.377) and OPS splits (.945/.666) were much higher in Buffalo than on the road.
"Regardless where we play it, Dunedin or Buffalo, like I always say: We all have to keep our heads up and keep working hard," Guerrero said. "Keep grinding, keep going out there trying to win some games. It is what it is. We're going to Buffalo now and then we've got to do it there."
