The NFL’s championship weekend is here.
The top two teams from both conferences will face off Sunday for the right to play in Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11 in Las Vegas.
Both No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC will host their respective conference title games, with Baltimore entering Sunday afternoon’s game as a 3.5-point favorite over the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, while the San Francisco 49ers are touchdown favorites over the visiting Detroit Lions in the NFC’s championship bout.
FrontPageBets is here to break it all down … and give our picks and predictions.
So let’s go!
AFC Championship Game prediction: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are playing in their sixth consecutive conference championship. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has never not played in an AFC title game in his career as a starter. Read that again.
What might be even more impressive is that this will be just the second road playoff game of Mahomes’ career. Last week, he won his first in Buffalo, handing the Bills yet another disappointing postseason loss.
Kansas City is 3-2 in AFC title games and 4-1 against the spread since 2018. Again, this will be their first conference championship game away from Arrowhead Stadium since this amazing run started, which has included playing in three Super Bowls and winning two.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are playing in their first conference championship game since 2012 – which was a 28-13 win over the New England Patriots to send the Ravens to Super Bowl XLVII. Baltimore and head coach John Harbaugh ended up beating the San Francisco 49ers and his brother, Jim, two weeks later in New Orleans for the Lombardi Trophy.
Looking at betting trends for this season in particular, Baltimore enters Sunday’s game 12-6 against the spread and 6-3 as a home favorite, while Kansas City is 11-7-1 ATS and 2-0 as a road underdog.
Mahomes is the best postseason quarterback since Tom Brady, having played in 16 postseason games and winning 13 of them, including two Super Bowls – where he was also the MVP.
His playoff stats are insane, throwing for 4,561 yards and 38 touchdowns with a completing percentage of 66.8%. He’s only thrown seven interceptions on 587 postseason attempts.
To count this guy out is not a smart play, even if the offense around him isn’t as explosive in year’s past.
And he’s still got tight end Travis Kelce, who caught two touchdown passes in last week’s Divisional Round win over Buffalo. That second TD catch put Mahomes and Kelce ahead of Brady and Rob Gronkowski for most touchdown passes/catches by a duo in playoff history with 16.
On the other side is Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has turned in an MVP season. While he doesn’t have the best prototypical QB numbers, it’s what Jackson can do with his legs and how he leads his team that has put him above the rest of the signal-callers in the league.
Jackson rushed for 821 yards during the regular season, the most of any quarterback, and put him 22nd among all rushers. He also threw for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns this year, playing a handful of games without his top target, tight end Mark Andrews.
And with that, Jackson led the Ravens to the best record in football (13-4) and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Now, he’s one win away from going to the first Super Bowl of his career. And to get there, he’ll have to continue to make plays with his legs.
Jackson ran for 100 yards last week in the Divisional Round win over the Texans. And that’s got to be keeping a Chiefs’ defense awake at night as they let Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen run 12 times for 72 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s playoff game.
If Jackson gets loose, that could make all the difference.
This will be the fifth time the Ravens and Chiefs have played since 2018 – the year both Mahomes and Jackson became full-time starters – and Baltimore has won three of them.
Oh, and one more Mahmoes stat: The QB is 9-1-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Do with that what you will.
As for me, we’re going Ravens to win and cover.
Sunday, Jan. 28
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
- When: 3 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110); Chiefs + 3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Ravens -200; Chiefs +165
- Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
- The pick: Ravens, 24-20
NFC Championship Game prediction: Detroit Lions +7 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are playing in their fourth NFC title game in the last five years, including three in a row. They’re 1-2 overall and 2-1 against the spread in title games over that stretch.
Detroit is playing in its first conference championship game in 32 years. The last time the Lions played for a chance to go to the Super Bowl was against Washington on Jan. 12, 1992. Detroit entered as 14-point underdogs and lost 41-10.
This season, San Francisco has been favored in every game, but is just 9-9 against the spread and 3-6 as a home favorite. In fact, the 49ers are just 1-3 against the spread in their last four games – all of which they have been more than 5-point favorites.
Detroit has the best ATS mark in the NFL at 13-6 and is 2-1 as a road underdog. This is just the fourth time this season that the Lions will be an underdog, covering twice, including the season-opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. The 7 points, however, is the largest underdog spread Detroit has faced this season.
Also, consider: This will be Detroit’s first game outside in nearly two months.
That’s right. The Lions’ last game outside was in Chicago on Dec. 10 – a game in which Detroit lost, 28-13. Matter of fact, 11 out of the Lions’ last 12 games have been in a dome. This season in outside games, the Lions are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
Of course, the temperature at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. (the home of the 49ers) will be about 63 degrees and partly cloudy around kickoff time, so weather won’t be a major factor like it would if Detroit was playing in, say, Green Bay.
But the focus will be on these two offenses, arguably the best across the board when it comes to skilled position players.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has been in this situation before, leading the Rams to a Super Bowl in 2018. This season with Detroit, Goff leads the NFL in completion percentage (74.3%) with a passing offense that ranks in the top four.
In the playoffs, Goff and the Lions have averaged more than 27 points and 362 yards per game, which is right at their regular-season average, good enough for fifth in the NFL.
Detroit’s offense will go up against one of the best defenses in the league, as the 49ers were third in the NFL during the regular season in points allowed, giving up just 17.5 per game. They also allowed just over 303 yards per game.
However, in their last five games, the 49ers have given up an average of 22.8 points and 318.4 yards per, including 21 points and 330 yards to Green Bay in last week’s Divisional Round win.
For San Francisco’s offense, all eyes will be on second-year starter Brock Purdy.
And all Purdy has done is win. As a starter, he’s 17-4, including three playoff wins. And it might have been four if he didn’t get hurt early in last year’s NFC Championship Game against the Eagles.
Purdy has turned in an MVP-like season, throwing for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns, along with a league-leading QB rating of 113.
And last week he overcame some mistakes to lead the 49ers to a fourth-quarter comeback victory.
But if Deebo Samuel can’t play, that will have significant ramifications on the 49ers’ offense. Samuel’s status for Sunday’s game is still up in the air.
Still, San Fran has enough offensive talent to win and advance to the Super Bowl. But so does Detroit.
This one should come down to the wire. The 49ers win, but don’t cover.
Sunday, Jan. 28
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
- When: 6:30 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: 49ers -7 (-110); Lions +7 (-110)
- Money line: 49ers -350; Lions +275
- Over/Under: 51.5 (-110)
- The pick: 49ers, 30-28
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 23-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
