FrontPageBets GM/Content Director Mike Szvetitz gives his picks for Week 1 of the NFL season.
After a hectic offseason that included Russell Wilson saddling up under center for the Denver Broncos, Von Miller signing a six-year, $120 million deal with the Buffalo Bills and Davante Adams reuniting with his college quarterback, NFL football is back.
FrontPageBets looks at three of the best bets we found for Week 1:
The pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-110 DraftKings, -105 FanDuel, -110 BetMGM)
Playing the Dolphins on the road has been New England’s kryptonite for quite some time now, as the Patriots have lost four of their last five and seven of their last nine in Miami Gardens, Fla.
New England will also be the first team tasked with trying to slow down a revamped Dolphins receiving corps that now features Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson Jr. alongside Jaylen Waddle.
Its secondary just isn’t ready for that type of challenge.
The Patriots are now without Pro Bowl cornerback J.C. Jackson, so Jonathan Jones will be taking his place out on the perimeter. He appeared in six games last season, making just one start, so expect Tua Tagovailoa to utilize the airways often to expose the lack of experience.
If those factors weren’t convincing enough, New England also looked abysmal in its final preseason game, losing 23-6 to the Las Vegas Raiders. Bill Belichick might have something up his sleeve to keep this one close, but it won’t be close enough, meaning you should take Miami to cover -- and feel good about doing so.
The pick: Allen Lazard -- Anytime touchdown scorer (+220 DraftKings, +210 FanDuel)
With Davante Adams gone, Aaron Rodgers is going to have to throw to someone, and there’s a good chance that Lazard could be his new No. 1 option.
Lazard is the second-longest tenured receiver in Green Bay, just behind Randall Cobb, who’s had two stints in the Packers’ system. He also hauled in eight touchdowns last season, and did so while competing with Adams and Marquez Valdez-Scantling for looks.
Minnesota’s defense also allowed 252.9 yards per game through the air last season. In four career games against the Vikings, Lazard has caught 15 of his 19 targets for 180 yards and a pair of scores.
The Packers have scored at least 30 points in three of the last four meetings with Minnesota, so Sunday should be a high-scoring affair as well.
In this week's FPBcast, Gerry Ahern and Mike Szvetitz wrap up the top FBS games and pick their best NFL games of the week.
The pick: Over 45.5 points (-110 DraftKings, -112 FanDuel, -110 BetMGM)
Houston’s defense gave up the second-most yards per game last season with a whopping 384.4. The Colts upgraded at quarterback by bringing in Matt Ryan and Jonathan Taylor is going to run rampant following his MVP season, so points shouldn’t be hard to come by for Indianapolis.
This bet is going to hinge on the Texans’ offense, led by second-year quarterback Davis Mills.
Assuming Houston ends up trailing early, Mills is going to have to take on the bulk of the workload. He might not have the most efficient game, but he should be able to throw for one or two scores based off the sheer amount of pass attempts he’s likely going to have to throw.
The Texans were outscored 62-3 between these teams’ two games last season, so it’s pretty hard to imagine their offensive performance getting any worse.
All Houston needs to do is put up double-digit points, and the Colts will do the rest of the work to make sure the over cashes.
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