The first month of the 2023 NFL campaign is now just a memory, and the oddsmakers are tracking teams from the AFC and NFC they believe are ready to win the Super Bowl.
What do we think of the odds, and which teams comprise our favorite picks to win the Super Bowl? Here are our best Super Bowl predictions, including AFC, NFC and long-shot bets.
Super Bowl predictions and best bets
The two remaining undefeated teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, both reside in the NFC. The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have both won three straight games since falling in Week 1, but will they make our list of favorite Super Bowl picks?
AFC Super Bowl picks: Kansas City Chiefs (+550 or better)
The Chiefs have not looked quite the same as in years past. Patrick Mahomes is only fourth in QBR and 10th in passing yards, both of which are well below the gaudy standards he set throughout his career. The Chiefs also rank just ninth in scoring, behind most of their Super Bowl competitors.
On a more positive note, this looks like the best defense KC has fielded during the Mahomes era. They have the youngest average starting lineup but rank fifth in points and eighth in yards allowed and have quieted strong offenses such as those of the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.
If any team has earned the benefit of the doubt, it’s the Chiefs. The Miami Dolphins also look terrible on defense, and the Bills are prone to mental lapses that make them untrustworthy in futures markets.
NFC Super Bowl picks: San Francisco 49ers (+550 or better)
What can we say? The oddsmakers got it right. The Niners are the NFC favorites and are 12-0 straight up in games Brock Purdy starts and finishes without season-ending injuries. They’re third in points scored and points allowed and have no weaknesses on their roster.
Purdy leads the league in QBR and passer rating, while Christian McCaffrey leads in total touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan is also a known quantity and has reached the NFC Championship Game in three of the last four seasons.
The Eagles might be undefeated, but they don’t look the same on either side, and the Cowboys are rueing the loss of Trevon Diggs. The Niners could come under serious threat, but they’re our favorites for now.
Check out our NFL Week 5 spreads and moneyline picks.
Long shot Super Bowl picks: Seattle Seahawks (+5500 or better)
The Seahawks are a dark horse team to monitor. Their offense can score points with anyone (sixth), and they’ll be familiar with the Niners, given they face them twice in every regular season.
The defense needs to show improvement, but it has the personnel to be better. Bobby Wagner in particular has already won a Super Bowl in Seattle and has the pedigree to lead the defense to another.
Geno Smith needs to continue to play at a top-seven level for the Seahawks to have a chance. He fell off towards the end of last year, but he’s been great thus far and ranks top five in QBR.
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Grant Mitchell is a sports and sports betting journalist for Catena Media. A member of Virginia Tech's 2021 graduating class and former NCAA Track & Field athlete, he specializes in basketball, football and soccer coverage.
