New Year’s Day will once again boast the best college football games of the season, as the College Football Playoff semifinals will ring in 2024 on the first day of the year from two of the most iconic venues in all of sports.
First, from the Rose Bowl, Big Ten champion and top-ranked Michigan (13-0) will take on SEC title holder No. 4 Alabama (12-1), with the Wolverines currently a 1.5-point favorite.
Then, from the Superdome in New Orleans, Pac-12 champ and second-ranked Washington (13-0) will face Big 12 winner No. 4 Texas (12-1) as a 4-point underdog.
The winners will then play Jan. 8 in Houston for the national championship.
Below, FrontPageBets takes a look at each CFP semifinal and makes its picks and predictions.
(All below odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama predictions: Wolverines -1.5 (-110) & Over 44.5 (-110)
Let’s get this out of the way, right away: This semifinal matchup in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day is going to be for the national championship.
The winner of this game will be the favorite going into the College Football Playoff finale, and will most likely win it.
These are the two best teams in college football – at this point in the season – led by the two best coaches. Regardless of what you think of them, Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh aren’t here by accident. Not this season.
How good has Alabama been under Saban?
Other than its six national championships in the last 14 years, this will be just the fifth time since 2010 (that’s 194 games) that Alabama has been an underdog. And the Crimson Tide is 3-1 in that role. Michigan will be the first team other than Georgia to be favored over Alabama during that stretch.
Pretty incredible when you think about it.
Here’s another crazy stat: Nick Saban is 8-2 against No. 1-ranked teams. Read that again.
Speaking of Saban, the last time Alabama lost a non-New Year’s Six bowl game was the 2006 Independence Bowl. That was the year before St. Nick came to Tuscaloosa.
Saban, for what it’s worth, is 19-11 as a head coach in bowl games throughout his college football career.
While Alabama has virtually ruled the college football world with Saban at the helm, Michigan hasn’t been so fortunate in postseason play since Harbaugh’s arrival in Ann Arbor.
The Wolverines have lost their last six postseason games and eight of their last nine.
As a college football head coach, Harbaugh is 2-7 in bowl games, including last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal loss to TCU, 51-45.
This year’s Michigan team, however, is built different. And that gives them the edge over an Alabama team that hasn’t been as dominant as other Saban squads.
We’ve seen Alabama struggle against inferior teams, and if it wasn’t for a fourth-and-goal-from-the-31 miracle, the Crimson Tide would have lost to rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl and wouldn’t even be in the CFP.
Michigan has been consistent all year and even without Harbaugh for more than half its games while suspended two separate times, the Wolverines kept it going with a stout running game and tremendous defense.
A defense that ranks second in FBS in total yards allowed per game (239.7) and No. 1 in points allowed per game (9.46). For comparison, Alabama is 19th (313.3) and 16th (18.38) in those categories, respectively.
Michigan’s offense relies on its running game, led by senior Blake Corum, who leads the country with 24 rushing touchdowns (which is also a single-season Michigan record), and the experience and efficiency of junior J.J. McCarthy, who is third in college football in QBR (89.3) and sixth in passing efficiency (170.25).
But the X-factor in this game will be Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, who, quite frankly, is special.
The gifted athlete has turned into an incredible dual-threat quarterback, who is actually more efficient that McCarthy. Milroe is fourth in the nation in QB efficiency (177.48). The sophomore, who was benched after Alabama’s loss to Texas in Week 2, has thrown for 2,718 yards and 23 touchdowns, while also rushing for 468 yards and 12 scores.
It’s Milroe’s ability to create and make plays – with his legs and arm – that could make the biggest difference for the Tide on New Year’s Day.
If Michigan’s defense truly is the best in college football, it’ll have to prove it against Saban, Milroe and Alabama.
- Kickoff: 5 p.m.; Rose Bowl
- TV: ESPN
- The pick: Michigan, 24-21
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas predictions: Longhorns -4 (-110) & Over 63.5 (-110)
The College Football Playoff semifinal nightcap won’t have the hype as the opener, but if you like scoring, this one should scratch that itch.
Second-ranked Washington and third-ranked Texas enter as two of the top offenses in the country, boasting two of the best quarterbacks.
Huskies senior quarterback Michael Penix Jr. finished runner-up in this year’s Heisman Trophy voting, leading the nation in passing yards with 4,218 and tied for third with 33 touchdown passes.
In his two years at Washington, Penix has thrown for 8,859 yards and 64 touchdowns. For his entire college career, the transfer from Indiana has racked up 13,056 passing yards and 93 touchdowns.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers doesn’t have quite the stats that Penix does, but the sophomore knows how to win. The Longhorns were the only team to beat Alabama this year. And as a starter, Ewers is 16-5 in two years in Austin.
This season, Ewers has thrown for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns; and he’s completing nearly 71% of his passes, which is eighth in FBS.
Both quarterbacks lead top-20 scoring offenses, as the Huskies are averaging 37.7 points per game to the Longhorns’ 36.2.
The difference here will be the defenses.
Playing in the Pac-12, Washington struggled to stop teams – the Huskies just outscored them. Washington ranks 90th in total defense, giving up nearly 400 yards and 24 points per game.
Texas is 24th in total defense, giving up 321.7 yards and just 17.5 points per outing.
Hence the reason the undefeated Huskies are 4-point underdogs.
Washington has to figure out a way to stop Texas if it wants to win. That won’t happen.
- Kickoff: 8:45 p.m.; Sugar Bowl
- TV: ESPN
- The pick: Texas, 42-35
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 23-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
