In what’s shaping up to be the biggest college football weekend of the 2023 season, there are two top-10 games taking place that could reshape the College Football Playoff race.
And with that in mind, FrontPageBets takes a look at the top three games and best bets of Week 11.
(All below odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)
No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 10 Penn State predictions: Nittany Lions +4.5 (-110) & Under 44.5 (-110)
The biggest game in the Big Ten is also the biggest game in the country.
As third-ranked Michigan heads to Happy Valley to face No. 10 Penn State, look for this one to be a defensive battle.
The Wolverines (9-0) have the No. 1 defense in the country, leading the nation in scoring defense (6.67 points per game) as well as total defense (231.4 yards per game).
The Nittany Lions (8-1) aren’t far behind, giving up less than 12 points per game – good enough for third-best in FBS – as well as 234.2 yards per game, which is No. 2 in the nation.
This one will come down to which offense can find a way to move the ball, even if it’s for only one drive. And both teams have quarterbacks to do it.
Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, who is a potential Heisman favorite, is second in the nation in QBR (92.3) and has thrown 18 touchdowns to just three interceptions. PSU’s Drew Allar has thrown for just under 2,000 yards this season with 20 touchdowns and just one pick.
Penn State is 7-2 this season against the spread, which is one of the best marks in the country. The only game the Nittany Lions have been the underdog in was to No. 1 Ohio State, where they were +4. They lost that game to the Buckeyes, 20-12.
On the other hand, Michigan is 4-5 ATS and has been favored in every game this season. Saturday’s game against Penn State will be the first time the Wolverines aren’t at least a three-score favorite. Michigan has been higher than a 17-point favorite in every game so far.
The Wolverines should win this one, but won’t cover the spread in a low-scoring game.
- Kickoff: Noon, Saturday
- TV: FOX
- The pick: Michigan, 20-17
No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Georgia predictions: Rebels +10.5 (-110) & Over 58.5 (-110)
If any team has the chance to beat the two-time defending champion Georgia Bulldogs this season, it’s Ole Miss.
The Rebels (8-1) have played – and won – some big games, including a 55-49 barnburner against LSU. Their only loss is to Alabama, 24-10, in a game that the Rebels seemed to hurt themselves more than the Crimson Tide could.
Being battletested will only help Ole Miss between the hedges this Saturday night.
Sure, Georgia (9-0) is the better team, but the Bulldogs have struggled this season, especially to teams they should have handled easily – Auburn comes to mind.
Both Ole Miss and Georgia rank in the top 12 in offense, but it’s defensively where the Dawgs have the edge. While the Rebels are averaging close to 39 points per game, the UGA defense is giving up 15.44, which is seventh-best in the nation.
Georgia should win, but the 10.5 points might be too much to cover.
Consider: Despite being favored by at least two touchdowns in every game so far this season, the Bulldogs are just 2-7 against the spread. The Rebels are 6-2-1 ATS. This will be just the third game this season where they are underdogs.
- Kickoff: 7 p.m.; Saturday
- TV: ESPN
- The pick: Georgia, 34-28
USC vs. No. 6 Oregon predictions: Trojans +15.5 (-110); Over 73.5 (-110)
If Oregon (8-1) has any hopes of making the College Football Playoff, the Ducks must finish the season undefeated … and get a little help.
While they can’t control what happens to No. 5 Washington, which beat Oregon earlier this season, and the other five teams ranked ahead of them, the Ducks can control what happens when they take the field.
And this Saturday night, they’ll need to focus everything they can on a USC team that has nothing to lose.
Despite being 7-3, the Trojans still have one of the best offenses in the country with one of the best quarterbacks, reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, who is No. 1 in FBS with 28 touchdown passes.
Oregon’s Bo Nix is in the running this season for the Heisman, and is also one of the top signal-callers in the nation, throwing for more than 2,700 yards and 25 touchdowns against just one interception.
Both offenses are 1-2 in scoring, with Oregon averaging 47.4 points per game to USC’s 45.5.
The Ducks take care of business in this one, but not without a fight from Williams and the Men of Troy.
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m.; Saturday
- TV: FOX
- The pick: Oregon, 42-38
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 23-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
