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Back to the big time: Your guide to the Bills season

  • Sep 8, 2021
  • Sep 8, 2021 Updated Sep 2, 2022

The Buffalo Bills open their most anticipated season in decades when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Here is our annual season preview, including a deep look at how Sean McDermott is keeping himself and his players level-headed amid the hoopla. 

Sir Charles, Canelo and Sean McDermott? Bills coach stays himself even amid spotlight

LAKE TAHOE, Nev. – This is about the last place one might expect to find Sean McDermott.

It’s a Thursday afternoon in early July and some of the biggest names in the sports and entertainment worlds have descended on the Edgewood Tahoe Golf Course. They’ve come to enjoy the amenities of a five-star resort that promises “luxury beyond limits” while also participating in the American Century Championship – a celebrity golf tournament in one of the world’s more idyllic settings.

Amid a sea of A-list stars who command attention based on their mere presence, the Buffalo Bills’ head coach struck a more understated tone – in both dress and demeanor. Wearing a grey Travis Matthew golf polo, khaki shorts and black golf spikes, McDermott’s wardrobe matches his modest personality. His only distinguishing article of clothing was the white Bills bucket hat – one worn as a precaution against skin cancer – that has become ubiquitous to the coach.

McDermott is on the far right of the driving range, grinding away. On his right is Charles Barkley, the larger-than-life Basketball Hall of Famer. On his left is Canelo, the Mexican professional boxer who is pound-for-pound the best in the world – and famous enough to go by just one name.

The night before, McDermott walked into a welcome reception a few minutes after his wife, Jamie, and their three children arrived. As soon as his kids saw him, they came running up with an urgent update.

“They’re all going, ‘Steph Curry’s here, Steph Curry’s here!” McDermott said. “They don’t look at dad that way. I don’t expect them to. Steph’s at a different level, but I just don’t see myself like that. No matter how many games we win, no matter how much success we have, I don’t think I’ll ever see myself that way. Maybe that’s to my detriment, I don’t know, but that’s just who I am.”

McDermott might never be entirely comfortable with the idea of celebrity, but it’s something he should get used to. The Buffalo Bills are back in the Super Bowl conversation, and he’s the man largely responsible for getting them there. McDermott has overseen a turnaround that started by ending a 17-year playoff drought and has continued with three postseason appearances in his first four seasons on the job -- completing altering the course of a franchise that had lost its way.

"I remember starting on the show in 2016, and there just wasn't much Bills talk, and if there was, you were doing it to satisfy an East Coast time zone or because you were doing it out of nostalgia because we grew up Bills fans,” Kyle Brandt, one of the hosts of NFL Network’s Good Morning Football, said this week. “Now, it's like we lead the show with the Bills. Half the national media members are picking the Bills to go to the Super Bowl. It’s crazy. Personally, I just like to think we as a show were just slightly early to the party, because they're blowing up now. They're not the club band anymore. Now they're playing arenas.”

The Buffalo News made the trip west to Lake Tahoe to spend some time with McDermott away from One Bills Drive, to learn more about how the coach has evolved entering his fifth year on the job – both on the field and off.

A new challenge

For all the Bills’ accomplishments in 2020 – their first AFC East championship since the 1995 season, first playoff victory since that same year, and a franchise single-season record in points scored, just to name a few – McDermott knows none of that matters now.

An appearance in the AFC championship game means the Bills can no longer play the underdog card. Teams will be gunning for them.

“He’s done an absolutely great job,” Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel said. “Every year is different, but I know Sean will do everything he can to have them ready.”

On Monday’s episode of Good Morning Football, Brandt predicted McDermott would be named the 2021 NFL Coach of the Year.

“It's ridiculous that he hasn't won it,” Brandt said. “This guy brought the Bills to the playoffs, and not like, on the Josh Allen rocket. He brought them with Tyrod Taylor.”

In Peter King’s Football Morning in America column, he predicted the Bills will earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC and reach the Super Bowl, while also selecting McDermott as his coach of the year. That’s just a small sampling of the lofty preseason projections for the Bills from pundits and fans alike.

“If being on the map was the goal, then yeah, we’ve accomplished that,” McDermott said. “But that’s never been the goal. It should never be the goal.

“That’s what I’ve been trying to get across to our team. I don't go to work early in the morning or get home late, nor do any of our coaches, to just be in the conversation.”

In McDermott’s mind, being the best coach he can be means reinventing himself every offseason.

“Not change who you are, your core values, but just asking yourself, how can I become a better coach?” he said. “I’ve got to be better than I was the year before. If not, I didn’t put my time in.”

During that introductory reception, the resumes of those playing scrolled on projector screens set up throughout the room. As he read the bios of gold medalists, Hall of Famers, Emmy winners and champions in every major sport, McDermott reflected on his upbringing in Lansdale, Pa., just outside Philadelphia.

The dream then was one shared by so many kids – to star in the NFL as a player. McDermott’s playing career didn’t quite make it that far. He walked onto the football team at the College of William and Mary, where he became a three-year starter at free safety through sheer determination and a willingness to outwork anyone and everyone.

A coaching career didn’t become a consideration until the spring of 1998, when William and Mary coach Jimmye Laycock offered McDermott a graduate assistant role. In just more than 20 years, McDermott has risen to a level in which he’s rightfully earned a seat at the table in the company of true powerhouses – unsettled as that may make him.

“I'm looking around the room, Vince Carter is three seats down from me. Justin Timberlake is in the room. Aaron Rodgers is there,” McDermott said. “And then you've got the older guys, legends, Joe Theismann. It's humbling, and then I also try to keep perspective, because you can't chase that. Even if it's not a sport that we all play, just being around people that are either at the level of being the best or they're chasing that level, I think is really just cool to be in that environment.”

Refreshed, recharged

It’s just after 11 a.m. the day before the tournament starts. Barkley and Canelo are just getting ready to go out for a casual practice round. McDermott, however, has already gotten in his work for the day. He teed off for his practice round at 7:30 a.m., before even the most ambitious autograph hunters had gotten out of bed.

He’s supposed to be relaxing before another long season starts, but for McDermott, old habits die hard. During the season, the coach’s alarm goes off at 3:30 a.m. This week, he’s sleeping in … until 6:15 a.m.

“Unplugging for me has always been hard,” he said.

Football coaches are famous – or maybe infamous – for their 18-hour workdays. Stories are endless of coaches sleeping on couches in their offices. As his in-season wake-up time would indicate, McDermott is no stranger to those long days. He’s learning, however, that he needs to create a mental space for himself away from football, so that he can plug in even stronger when he gets back.

That’s part of what coming here is about.

“People who have gotten really good at what they do, they’ve said, ‘You’ve got to get away, you’ve got to get away, you’ve got to get away,'” McDermott said.

One of those people is Jim Boeheim. One Friday afternoon during the spring, the legendary Syracuse basketball coach returned a call from McDermott, who eagerly pulled his truck into the parking lot of his kids’ elementary school to talk.

McDermott takes every opportunity he can to chat with people who are experts in their field. He specifically wanted to know from Boeheim how he’s been able to sustain success in one place for so long.

“I was surprised. I didn't know Sean,” Boeheim said. “The Bills happen to be my oldest son's favorite team, so he was excited that I got to talk to his favorite coach. … It was an interesting call. He was asking about, ‘How can you be 76 and still coaching?’ I said, ‘It will be a lot harder for a football coach because they work a lot harder than we do.’ ”

Boeheim follows the NFL closely and had been impressed from afar by the job McDermott has done in Buffalo. When the two talked, Boeheim reiterated the importance of getting away during the season – be it something as simple as going to see a movie or taking his wife out to dinner.

“The thing I’ve always stressed is to make sure you get enough sleep,” Boeheim said. “Sometimes as coaches, we overdo it. We get caught up in the day-to-day stuff, and before you know it you’re putting in these 18-hour days. I don’t think that’s good for your ability to coach or your mental health. I know I don’t make really good decisions when I get tired.”

Boeheim also stressed the importance of entrusting others to do their jobs. When he took over as Syracuse’s head coach in 1976, Boeheim wanted to oversee everything that happened within his program. During the offseason, he would go to Puerto Rico to coach in the professional league there for a month at a time. When he returned to Syracuse, he often found that … everything was good.

“We were running our camps, getting ready to recruit,” he said. “Everything was fine. It might have even been better, but it was fine at the very least. I realized, ‘Maybe I don't have to be here every day.’ If you coach over the years, I think you do delegate a little bit more.”

McDermott is a defensive coach by trade and believes wholeheartedly in the importance of that side of the ball, but he’s been consistent about not wanting to win games 10-9 – knowing that’s hard on the heart and hairline. If he doesn’t do his job as head coach overseeing the whole operation, the whole ship could sink.

The Bills have enjoyed remarkable continuity on their coaching staff, which allows McDermott to pick his spots as to where he spends his time, knowing he can trust his assistants to have their players ready.

“You’ve got to build it,” McDermott said. “It doesn’t just show up. And so, where do I spend my time? How much do I need to be around the defense? What’s the right gas-to-brake type of approach there? That’s what I’m learning – where the team does need me. If they’re going, it’s like, ‘All right, let them go. If they’re rolling, let them roll.’ ”

A compulsive notes taker, McDermott jotted down as much as he could from his 30-minute conversation with Boeheim. By the end of the call, the respect and admiration was mutual.

“I was hugely impressed with the overall conversation and the fact that he reached out to me,” Boeheim said. “Coaches that win over a long period of time are constantly changing. There are constant adaptations from what they were 10 years ago or five years ago or maybe even last year. It shows me that that's what he wants to do – that he's going to do that. I think he looked at it as, 'That guy's been at it for a long time. He's still pretty viable, so how does he do it?'

"I tried to answer that question for him. I was really impressed with him. I think the Bills found a really great coach.”

A new pursuit

Boeheim’s advice of taking some “me time” in season is something McDermott actually started to do last year. On Fridays, he would get out of work in time to race over to Orchard Park Country Club, where he would meet his 11-year-old son to play a few holes.

“My wife is very accommodating that way,” he said. “A big part of that is trusting your staff. Listen, I get up early, but I also try and get home at a decent hour so I can see my kids, or at least see my wife before she goes to bed.”

Golf has become more of an escape than McDermott might have imagined when he was hired in January 2017. That June, the Bills started an annual golf tournament for media members who cover the team, pairing a team employee with a reporter. McDermott participated then, but the idea of spending four hours away from the team was hard to stomach. His priorities then were his family, his faith and his job … and then whatever else came after that. If he could sneak in an hour to work out, that was pretty good. Four hours on the golf course, though? Forget it.

The game has gotten its hooks into him, though. Even in this stress-free setting, McDermott wasn’t ready to leave the range until he was satisfied with his progress.

“For him, starting to get into it just now and really enjoying it, I'm never really surprised to hear when anybody's necessarily into the game,” said retired Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams, who played his practice rounds with McDermott. “Now, him coming out here and taking a week to do it is probably a bit of a surprise.”

That’s all part of “reinventing himself." McDermott was invited to play last year, but declined because of Covid-19 concerns. When the invitation came again this year, and he saw that it worked with his kids’ sports schedules, the family decided to make a vacation out of it – even if it involved at least a little work.

The day before coming here, McDermott was on the range at Orchard Park when an older member – one the coach doesn’t know by name, but frequently sees at the club – walked over.

“I can kind of see him out of the corner of my eye,” McDermott recalled, “and he comes over and says, ‘Hey coach, I can see you’ve got an addictive personality, just like I do.’ ”

Challenged on that notion, McDermott doesn’t totally go along.

“I think I have a passionate personality,” he said. “I don’t think it’s addictive, but I know I can be better. Part of that is the competitor in me. I’m never going to embarrass myself. I think a little bit of motivation by fear is healthy, too. I don’t know what it is, man, but I can’t walk away when it’s not right.

“My kids would tell you the same thing. We go hit ground balls. We practice infield, we’re going to work. I try to find that balance, too, of I know what works for me, but what works for me doesn't always work for my kids or my team or whatever. Self-awareness is huge. I could sit out here all day, but I need to get home and be a dad and a husband.

“If you're wired the right way, you get smarter as the years go. You know yourself better.”

Over a lunch of grilled chicken on a salad, McDermott is completely at ease. Truthfully, it’s hard not to be in this setting. As the sun shines brilliantly and a light breeze makes the 85-degree temperature feel comfortable, McDermott seems to soak in just how fortunate he is to be here, surrounded by his family and friends, leading an NFL franchise potentially on the cusp of something great.

“To those who much has been given, much is expected. That’s kind of how I look at it,” he said. “I’m blessed. My family has been blessed.”

He speaks freely, much more so than he will when the regular season starts Sunday at Highmark Stadium against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That’s calculated.

“I learned from Andy Reid that the No. 1 job of a head coach in press conferences is not to create distraction for his team, because it's hard enough to win in this league as it is,” he said. “The test of a team is how long it can stay together through all the distractions that come – injuries, all these other things that pull at you during the season. During the season, there's a little bit of a different Sean in front of you guys, because I am very protective of those guys.”

Given the way McDermott, now 47, and his older brother, Tim, were raised by their parents, Rich and Avis, that’s not a big surprise. There were high expectations and a low tolerance for nonsense.

That explains why McDermott is on the range after a practice round while most of the other celebrities are more concerned with the open bar in the hospitality tent.

“He has a different personality when you see how he goes through things,” said retired Bills linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who caddied for McDermott in the practice round. “Obviously, golf is a very meticulous game. You almost can't be overthinking and be in your head. … Then he doesn't have the time, being the head coach. You want to come out here knowing the competitor he is, too, you want to show well. So I was like, ‘I wonder how he's going to do, but he actually is doing really well with it, taking some good lessons. You have to humble yourself, and this game does it.”

Alexander had it pretty easy during McDermott’s round.

“I'm out here, supposed to be caddying, like, 'Hey you want me to get this?" he said. “He’s like, ‘No, I got it.’ He's still got that down-to-earth foundation. He's the same dude, even though he's getting the looks now nationally.”

McDermott’s family also keeps him in check. He asked his brother to caddy for him, but was quickly turned down.

“He thought, 'Hey, why I would carry my younger brother's clubs for three days in the sun? He thought better of it,' " Sean McDermott said.

During that practice round with Williams, McDermott’s mom texted to wish her son and Jamie a happy anniversary. He pulled out his phone to read the exact message.

“Don’t worry if you’re not playing good golf,” it read, “remember you’re a dad first and a coach second and golfer third."

“Perfect,” McDermott said with a laugh. “I’m playing with Kyle and a couple of other guys who are pretty good, so you can get pretty frustrated when you play with those guys. That’s exactly what I needed.”

Golf has given him perspective, too.

“A lot of the golfers on our staff, guys who have played longer than I have, that's what they say, that one golf shot approach or theory,” he said. “You’ve got to go onto the next shot. Reset, whatever the term is to get guys onto the next play, that's what you've got to do. There's no more game I think that it's more true for than this game right here.”

It applies to football, too. Not every play will go as designed. Neither will every game. There will be aversity along the way. That’s true even in wins.

“After a game, my dad will leave a message, ‘Hey, we got to talk,” McDermott said. “We could win 28-7, and he’s got three things you've got to get better at each week. He was a coach. That's how it is.”

Ego isn’t something that Alexander ever sees developing in his friend and former head coach – no matter how many celebrity golf tournaments he’s invited to play in.

“He realizes it kind of comes along with it when you coach in the NFL these days,” he said. “When you're a head football coach, you have a certain platform. Obviously being in Buffalo with the success he’s had, he's now able to do things like this, but he's still very grounded. It's not like 'I'm this superstar now.' He's grounded in who he is.”

Season preview: Can the Bills get to the Super Bowl?

Ask about building off last year, and the Buffalo Bills are quick to downplay the idea. What outsiders might view as picking up where they left off, they view as a restart. 

“I think our guys understand – and we've stressed that all year and all offseason – is what we did last year was really good, but it means nothing,” general manager Brandon Beane said on the first day of training camp. “We're 0-0. One of the coaches, I heard him talking to a couple players yesterday, talking about re-climbing the mountain. We don't get a start up here, we're starting at the bottom.

“Everybody's at the start line and we have to re-establish the things that we did well last year because people have tape, they're going to watch how we did some of the things that we did offensively.”

Everyone, from Beane to coach Sean McDermott to players, hits on a similar theme. They say it’s a totally new slate, and last year is all the way behind them. That’s a lot easier to say when you’re coming off a 13-3 season. Sure, things can change quickly in the NFL, but it’s much harder to start from scratch than to keep the wheels from falling off. Still, the idea of a restart is pervasive around Orchard Park. 

"Everybody I’ve talked to has that same mindset," quarterback Josh Allen said in July. "I know it’s a talking point. Everybody understands it’s a brand new season. Whatever we did doesn’t translate to what we’re going to do this year."

The Bills checked off their goal of winning the division last season and getting the home playoff game that comes with it. But even that and the AFC championship game appearance don’t mean much now to Beane unless they become the beginning of a streak.

“I think our guys understand that doing something once doesn't make you a great team. Once, you're lucky. Twice, you're good,” Beane said. “If you want to be a consistent contender, you got to back it up. And so, we talked here last year about a wanting to win the division, so we can host games here. And not only did we get to host one, we hosted two. I would have loved to have been hosting that last game that we lost, but we still have a lot of things that we haven't accomplished.

“As good as last year was, we still didn't meet some standards that we want to get to. So, until you win it, in my mind, we're still hunting.”

Top strengths

Reloading the offense: A massive contract extension during training camp reiterated the obvious: The Bills are all in on Allen. He threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns last season, adding another 421 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. In the postseason, he had 962 all-purpose yards, throwing for five touchdowns and running for one. He took the step the front office believed he would, and enters this season as a top MVP candidate after finishing second last season.

The fourth-year quarterback is coming off a record-setting season, as is his top target. Stefon Diggs already set franchise single-season records in his first year with the Bills – not a bad place to start for a year that had a fractured offseason because of Covid-19. Diggs, 27, and Allen, 25, have plenty of time to keep building. With Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and veteran Emmanuel Sanders, the receiving corps is deep, giving Allen plenty to work with. The offensive line is all back, after left guard Jon Feliciano and right tackle Daryl Williams were re-signed.

Deeper D-Line: The Bills took defensive ends in the first and second rounds of the 2021 draft with Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham, and they’ll have defensive tackle Star Lotulelei back this season. Defensive end A.J. Epenesa, a second-round pick in 2020, showed signs in the preseason of being able to contribute more than he did as a rookie. The Bills kept 11 defensive linemen for the initial roster, which Beane says is as deep as they could go. The emphasis on increasing pressure on opposing quarterbacks kept Beane and company comfortable with trimming elsewhere. 

Continuity: Continuity was listed among the team's strengths before last season, and the Bills kept it going. They retained 20 of 22 starters, and notably, all their coordinators again. The Bills know with each year of success, it can be harder and harder to retain the same coaching staff. Allen has noted how glad he’s been to have all this time with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, whom Allen says could soon be a head coach elsewhere. Until then, the Bills get to once again reap the benefits of having coaches and players who are all bought in on the same system.

Biggest worries

DNP: It is critical that the Bills have their best players on the field each game, and that is why Covid-19 protocols are still relevant here, especially for a team that is believed to have one of the lowest vaccination rates in the league. Players who are not vaccinated might miss up to five days if exposed, even if they do not test positive. McDermott and Beane have both emphasized that it is a personal decision, but there is a ripple effect if a player is missing a game. Vaccination rates can be a competitive advantage in that sense. As long as the pandemic is ongoing, it will intersect with football.

Upping the run game: The offense was not unsuccessful, but still, the run game could improve. The 1,723 team rushing yards ranked 20th in the NFL, even though the Bills were tied for second in total offense (6,343 yards) with Tennessee, just behind Kansas City. The more multi-faceted this offense can be, the bigger the problems for opposing defenses.

Offensive emphasis

Stay creative. The Bills certainly found plenty of things that worked last year. Opposing defensive coordinators have had plenty of time to break that down. Those coordinators will need more than just a good scheme to slow Allen’s abilities, but the Bills can get ahead by throwing in their own wrinkles, and creativity is among Daboll's strongest traits.

Defensive emphasis

Get that d-line going. The Bills’ intent on bettering their defensive line was clear, and now it’s time to see how successful they were. If they can pressure the quarterback and make the job of the secondary easier, they can consider that goal met.

Bills predictions: Allen TDs, Diggs TD catches, Bass from 50-plus, unsung hero and more

Looming question

How far can they go? Even if the team wants to be coy and downplay expectations, it’s clear how big the opportunity is for the Bills. Can they make it to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993? Can they satiate a tormented fan base? They’ll get a shot at the Chiefs in October, likely their biggest road block in the AFC. The Bills are talented and last year’s playoff experience was valuable. They won’t be satisfied with just experience again.

Outlook

So many of the focal points this year are about fine-tuning instead of rebuilding. That’s a strong spot to be in, and the Bills are poised to again make a lengthy postseason run. Sweeping the AFC East again is lofty, but the Bills are in a good position to defend the divisional title. All their NFC South meetings come packaged in the final seven games, when they also face the Patriots twice. They’ll be far past their 0-0 restart by then. What matters is where this year's climb ends. 

Projected record: 12-5

How we see it: Our Bills season predictions – is this the year?

Here is how News sports writers project the highly anticipated Buffalo Bills season: 

Jay Skurski

My, how things have changed in the AFC East. It's now the Bills being the hunted after so many years of chasing the Patriots. That's especially true at quarterback. The Bills have a bona fide star in Josh Allen, while New England (starting rookie Mac Jones), Miami (starting unproven second-year pro Tua Tagovailoa) and the New York Jets (starting rookie Zach Wilson) are left to hope their respective young quarterbacks develop the way Allen has. 

The Bills dominated the division last year in going 6-0. Doing so again will be a chore, but they'll be favored in every game. It will be up to coach Sean McDermott to have his team ready for that particular challenge. After that, the Bills' toughest games look to be road trips at Tennessee, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. It would not be a surprise to see the team favored in the remaining 14 games. 

Sir Charles, Canelo and Sean McDermott? Bills coach stays himself even amid spotlight

Could the Bills lose one or two of those games they're favored in? Certainly, but they might also spring an upset of the Chiefs, Titans or Bucs.

There are three main reasons for optimism for the Bills entering 2021.

The first is continuity. That's true in the staring lineup and the coaching staff. It's a huge advantage that the Bills don't have to teach a new system to players – most of whom know exactly what's expected of them. 

The second is an infusion of youth along the defensive line. First-round draft pick Greg Rousseau impressed during the preseason, offering hope that he can be an immediate contributor. Along with the expected development of Ed Oliver and the hope for a resurgence from Mario Addison, the pass rush has the potential to take a significant step forward. 

The third, and most important reason, is the obvious: Josh Allen. The Bills have one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL (at worst). The team is rarely going to be out of a game. Bills fans have waited a long time for a quarterback like Allen. If training camp is any indication, he's poised for another monster season. Enjoy the ride.

Prediction: 13-4. 

Katherine Fitzgerald

After months and months of anticipation, quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills finally take the field again, starting at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Under coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane’s guidance, a 12-5 finish in the now-17-game schedule feels well within reach. The defense should take a step forward, and the offense has plenty to build off.

The Bills should take the AFC East again, though I have the Patriots in the playoffs. Buffalo has Miami on the road early, and New England on the road late, but can easily still handle the divisional schedule. Both of those games are sandwiched by some very winnable home contests.

They get a taste of Kansas City on the road on a Sunday night, and could very well meet them again in an AFC championship game rematch, as the Chiefs will be strong again. The Bills’ stretch of New Orleans-New England-Tampa Bay is most interesting to me, with both Thursday and Monday night games mixed in. I have the Bills meeting the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, so perhaps a year of multiple dress rehearsals for the postseason run.

Prediction: 12-5.

Mark Gaughan

Bills fans can feel great about quarterback Josh Allen, coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane. That’s a pretty great combination going into a season. The offense will be very good, although I expect the schedule of defenses it faces to be slightly tougher than last year. If the front four produces as hoped, the defense will be better. The schedule of offenses the Bills face this year isn’t quite as tough as last year.  

The AFC East will be better largely because New England is better. I think the Patriots will make the playoffs. It’s hard to imagine the Bills going 6-0 in division, considering last year was the first time they did it in their history. Let’s call it 4-2 in division. Let’s call it 2-2 vs. the NFC South (the Thanksgiving game at New Orleans is a tough turn-around), and I like the Bills to go 4-0 vs. the AFC South. Call it a 12-5 finish, and I don’t think that’s being a Pollyanna.  

Can the Bills win the Super Bowl? Sure. But who knows what the health of any team will be in January? Look at the Chiefs last season. They lost their two starting tackles against the Bills. As it turned out, that blew any chance they had of beating Tampa. I’m not picking the Bills to win the AFC. Until the Bills prove otherwise, I like Kansas City in the trenches better than the Bills. I like Buffalo’s offensive line. But the Chiefs’ O-line looks better. On the other side of the ball, Bills-killer Chris Jones and Frank Clark are better than any two defensive linemen the Bills have. Maybe Ed Oliver & Co. will change that opinion. For now, I’ll take Andy Reid to win his second Super Bowl for Kansas City.  

Prediction: 12-5.

Jason Wolf

The Bills return virtually every starter and coach from a team that rewrote the franchise record book on offense while advancing to the AFC championship game. They’re primed for another deep playoff run.

Glancing at the schedule, I see losses at Kansas City, Tennessee and Tampa Bay and imagine the Bills splitting the season series with at least one division rival, either New England or Miami. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they defeat one of those first three teams on the road and lose a game they shouldn’t.

Figure a 13-4 record and another battle with Kansas City for a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

But this time, a victory in the AFC title game sets up the long-anticipated Super Bowl showdown between Josh Allen and childhood idol Tom Brady.

Prediction: 13-4.

Rachel Lenzi

The pieces are all in place for the Bills to have their best season since the glory days of the early 1990s. The term “Super Bowl” has repeatedly been mentioned in the same sentence as “the Bills,” which makes this season one of high – and deserved – expectations.

The Bills have a deep defense from the secondary to the front line, that’s only gotten deeper with the addition of rookies Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham, and free-agent signee Efe Obada on the line. Quarterback Josh Allen has enough experience under his belt to continue chemistry with his wide receivers and to command an offense.

This year, the Bills will be in the mix – well into the mix of potential Super Bowl winners – but they won’t be able to edge out proven Super Bowl contenders (and recent champions) in the Chiefs and Buccaneers. In the end, the Bills will run up against and be stopped in the AFC championship game by another that boasts a similar blueprint: The Chiefs.

Regardless, given the Pegulas’ financial commitment to Allen, as well as the seeds of youth planted on the defense, the Bills will be long-term Super Bowl contenders. 

Prediction: 14-3.

Bills predictions: Allen TDs, Diggs TD catches, Bass from 50-plus, unsung hero and more

Here are The News' predictions on some stat leaders and more for the Buffalo Bills this season.

Predictions by Jay Skurski, Katherine Fitzgerald, Mark Gaughan, Jason Wolf and Rachel Lenzi.

Category 
Skurski 
Fitzgerald 
Gaughan 
 Wolf
 Lenzi
 Allen total TDs 
  47
  47
 45
  50
 39
 Diggs TD catches 
  10 
  9 
 7  
  10 
 11
 Top rusher by yards
 Moss 
 Singletary 
 Singletary 
 Allen  
 Singletary 
 Tre'Davious White INTs
  4
  4
  3
  5
 4 
 Sack leader
 Addison 
 Addison
 Hughes 
 Rousseau 
 Oliver 
 Unsung hero 
 Wallace 
 McKenzie 
 Morse 
 Addison 
 Gilliam
 Bass FG of 50-plus  
   6 
 3 
   7
 6 
  5 

How Bills receiver Stefon Diggs spiced up his brand. It's not just with new hot sauce

Brian Manley drove a rented silver Mercedes-Benz G-Wagon down Elmwood Avenue with Stefon Diggs in the passenger seat and the Buffalo Bills wide receiver’s wardrobe in the back one day this summer in between commercial shoots for Manley’s Buffalo-based company, Imagine Staffing.

“I was sort of showing him a little bit of the Elmwood Village area because, unfortunately, when he came here last year, it was in the midst of Covid, so he wasn’t able to experience Buffalo as the city that it is,” Manley, the company’s president and CEO, told The Buffalo News. “It was a beautiful day and people were out and it was really exposing him and his team to Buffalo, which I think they loved.”

Diggs showed Bills fans and the National Football League what he was all about on the field last season after being traded from Minnesota to Buffalo, going on to lead the league with 127 catches and 1,535 receiving yards and being named first-team All-Pro while helping the Bills reach the AFC championship game for the first time since the early 1990s. Off the field, he’s just getting started.  

The rising superstar, who in some quarters was viewed as a malcontent toward the end of his tenure in Minneapolis, has rejuvenated his brand in Buffalo and has been lauded as an exemplary teammate.

Diggs signed with Jordan Brand in April, and has sat for exclusive interviews with GQ Magazine, for ESPN’s December Cover Story and for Modern Luxury DC, a national publication with a regional focus that includes his hometown of Gaithersburg, Md., often bringing his own wardrobe.

And he’s working to capitalize in the Western New York market, as well.

“The challenge that we face specifically in marketing NFL players and creating those brands is that NFL players play their sport with a helmet, so the real strategy off the field is peeling that helmet off and exposing and sharing various facets of who you are as a person,” said Alexandra Meaza, the vice president of marketing and communications for The Sports & Entertainment Group, which has represented Diggs since he entered the NFL as a fifth-round draft pick in 2015. “Therein lies the true value of those initiatives.”

Diggs this offseason agreed to become a spokesperson for Imagine Staffing, a hiring agency that is rolling out a marketing campaign that includes online advertisements, television and radio commercials and billboards. And this week he is launching his “Diggs 14”-branded hot sauce and blue cheese through PLB Sports & Entertainment, the same company behind Josh Allen’s cereal, “Josh’s Jaqs.”

The bottles are available at Wegmans and Tops Markets, and a portion of the proceeds benefit the WNY Women’s Foundation in Buffalo.

“Going into this season, one of Stefon’s objectives is to just really, really further ingratiate himself within the Buffalo community,” Meaza said. “In 2020, he wasn’t able to do that, interfacing with fans. … That, I would say, is one of his key goals this season, is really getting to know Bills Mafia. Really, really becoming even more so a member of this community and getting to know everyone there.”

Right place, right time

Diggs was voted a team captain this week for the first time since high school and spoke after practice Tuesday about how the trade to Buffalo provided him with a fresh start, an opportunity to prove himself to new coaches and teammates and was “the right place at the right time.”

Diggs cited MVP-caliber quarterback play by Allen, the pass protection by the offensive line and the Bills’ pass-heavy scheme as factors for his success on the field. The increased marketing opportunities, he said, have been “an experience in its own.”

“Playing well comes with a lot on the field and off,” Diggs said, “but as far as with the marketing and that kind of thing, I kind of let that stuff kind of figure itself out. I am focused more so on the football. I tell my agency, my marketing rep and everybody involved that, ‘Let me do my job, and I’ll make y’all job a lot easier. Y’all going to do your job. I’ll just do mine. And I stick to the football.’

“I try to get education on pieces along the way. But more so, let me just focus on what got me here, not the perks of it.”

Diggs expanded on his off-the-field ambitions in November during an interview on the "Huddle and Flow" podcast hosted by Steve Wyche and Jim Trotter, who asked the wide receiver about his appearance at the prestigious Brandweek Sports Marketing Summit run by Adweek. 

His session was called “Fireside Chat: Creating Brand Partnerships That Win – A Conversation with Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs.”

Diggs discussed the importance of being himself; aligning with brands that share his values, including social issues and charitable work; crafting long-term relationships; and leveraging social media, particularly Instagram, to connect directly with fans.

“I’ve followed a lot of guys,” Diggs said. “I did more listening more than talking when I was a rookie, or my first few years, and I learned a lot of guys do it on the back end, when they’re on their way out the door, when they start getting out of the league or doing a lot more media and media engagement stuff and branding. I took that information and held it.

“When I got some time off and football isn’t the only focus, you make sure you’re crossing your t’s and dotting your i’s with speaking engagements and doing stuff like this. It keeps you focused that it’s not just all about football, you are a businessman, you are a brand and taking those steps in the right direction early instead of trying to get on the horse late when nobody cares about you because you’re not playing football anymore. I’m trying to do the right stuff.”

Being traded to Buffalo, long viewed as an NFL outpost, didn’t hinder Diggs’ ascent to superstar status in the least.

John Cimperman, a Buffalo-based sports marketing executive and the founder of Barnstorm Sports + Entertainment, has decades of experience with pro teams in large and small markets.

“Market size does not play as big a part in national endorsements as it did, say, five, 10 years ago,” Cimperman said, “and I think a big reason for that is the sport of football and the NFL, in particular, has really grown into a national sport, versus a regional sport. Green Bay is a smaller market than Buffalo and they built a winning tradition and a winning culture and that’s parlayed into big national deals for players in a small market.

“On-field success definitely translates to off-field success, and specifically when it comes to player endorsements.”

'Beyond a natural'

Diggs said that because his reputation took a hit toward the end of his tenure in Minnesota, he intentionally shied away from media and promotional opportunities, preferring to prove himself through his actions.

“When things started going downhill, I just took a step back from it,” Diggs said on the podcast. “I know who I am and I’d rather just go put it on display as far as who I am as a player and the things that I do and planning to do in the community and continue to do more showing than talking. I still do a press conference every Wednesday to talk about football, but everything outside of football, I really wanted to take a step back for myself. …

“People are going to feel how they felt. I always took it with a grain of salt. But as a player and protecting yourself and your brand and your legacy, I gotta be a bigger person here. I gotta take a backseat here and let people feel how they feel and let the cards fall where they lay. The future is going to be the future. Only way you can kind of control it is to put the positive energy in the air and push forward.”

Manley, the president of Imagine Staffing, described Diggs as both easygoing and a perfectionist during their day together.

“We have a business relationship, so I don’t know him,” Manley said. “Like, I’m not his friend. But by the end of the day, we were laughing at each other, because when you spend that much time with somebody, you sort of get to know them.”

Diggs introduced himself to the staff working the shoot when he didn’t have to.

He helped the photographers and video crew while they were setting up at the company’s downtown headquarters and when filming moved to a field at Nardin Academy.

“There was one person walking by, carrying a bunch of heavy equipment, and he just instantly went and helped that person,” Manley said.

The wide receiver was happy to eat pizza from the restaurant next door, whereas other “talent” has been far more particular about lunch requirements, Manley said.

And once it was showtime, Diggs delivered like a seasoned pro.

“When I say beyond a natural, it was astonishing,” Manley said. “We had a lot of lines. You’ll see the commercials coming out. We have like 8,000 of them over the next four months across every single network. He’s featured in all of them and had tons of lines. And he was so good. He’s smooth. Talking for 30 seconds straight in front of a camera and walking – they had him stopping at a certain place and saying something. I felt like there were so few takes, and that’s just a credit to how good he is.”

Diggs’ marketing rep said the wide receiver pursues his off-the-field career objectives in much the same way he prepares to play football.

“Stefon is very tactical,” Meaza said. “He goes into his offseason with basically a list of objectives and the key results that he wants to see, and that relates to his on-the-field preparation for the next season and then off the field, all of his business endeavors. So his offseasons are jam-packed and he takes full advantage of them to get everything done that he needs to, both personally and professionally.

“Obviously, you want to strike while the iron is hot. You want to take advantage of that.”

Diggs on Tuesday recalled the Bills' first-round playoff game against Indianapolis last season in Orchard Park, the first home game he played with limited fans in attendance, and how he tried to hype the crowd and ended up dropping a pass. 

“I’m going to just focus on the game,” Diggs said about the upcoming home opener against Pittsburgh, the first game in a stadium packed with the fanbase he’s working to embrace. “I’m excited. I think it’s going to be crazy. It’s going to be loud. That’s what people have been talking about all week, ‘You haven’t had a game with the fans.’ I was like, ‘No, I haven’t, but I’m actually just focused (on football) because obviously I can’t do both.’ ”

Back to the big time: Your guide to the Bills season

Josh Allen, winning record and college atmosphere help make Bills a prime-time draw

On Thanksgiving night, the No. 53 TV market Buffalo Bills meet the No. 50 TV market New Orleans Saints on NBC’s “Sunday Night Football.”

The Nov. 25 matchup between two of the three smallest market teams on one of the biggest nights of the National Football League season illustrates how little market size matters in the selection of attractive matchups.

Of course, the NFL might lean toward the bigger markets of New York, Los Angeles and Chicago if it is on the fence whether a game should be in prime time.

“But you play your way into prime time,” Mike North, the NFL’s vice president of broadcast planning and scheduling, said in a telephone interview. “You don’t draft your way into prime time. The Bills have earned it and their market size doesn't matter quite as much as their 13-3 (regular season) record. If the Bills were 4-12 or 4-13, market size matters. But record matters more.”

Prime-time matchups also depend on big-name quarterbacks.

And the Bills, who finished 15-4 last season and lost in the AFC title game to Kansas City, have one.

“Aside from being a good team, which is the No. 1 factor for prime time, they have a quarterback that is very exciting who probably hasn't come close to reaching his max potential and is extremely likable,” said “Sunday Night Football” executive producer Fred Gaudelli.

He called Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs “one of the top combinations in the league.”

“I just feel like Thanksgiving night in New Orleans in the Superdome with Josh and the whole team and Diggs, it is going to be fun. We know the environment will be awesome.”

North cited another reason beyond the Bills’ record, their ascendancy and their “attractive quarterback” for becoming a prime-time draw – strong ratings for recent games in key network windows over the last two years.

“The best example is probably Thanksgiving (a 26-15 win in 2019) when they went down to Dallas,” North said. “That game is usually our most viewed game of the entire season. And to have put the Bills in that window, and have them perform as well as they did, certainly seems to warrant additional opportunities for the Bills to hit our national television schedule, not just prime time, but also the key 4:25 p.m. Sunday afternoon window.”

Gaudelli, who was here last season with SNF for a regular-season game with Pittsburgh played without fans and a playoff game against Baltimore with only 6,772 attending, wishes one thing was different regarding this season’s Bills games.

“The only thing I'm bummed about is that we don't have any games in Buffalo,” he said. “Our two Bills games are on the road, but they are two great games.”

'Phenomenal fan base'

NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth and play-by-play announcer Mike Tirico also hope SNF gets to Buffalo soon.

“Not only are the Bills good, they are fun to watch,” Collinsworth said in an email. “Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs were magical from day one. When you combine exciting young talent with a raucous fan base, it makes for great television. See you in prime time Buffalo. It can’t be long before Al (play-by-play announcer Michaels) and I are crashing through tables.”

Tirico, who calls games when Michaels doesn’t, used analytics to explain why the small market Bills are such a prime-time attraction.

“The Bills are one of only six teams to have double-digit wins in each of the last two seasons,” said Tirico. “Josh Allen is a rising star and is becoming well-known nationally. Couple the quarterback play with the exciting brand of football and the success and you have fans across the country who want to see the Bills.”

He notes that the NFL is less big-market dependent than any other league, with Green Bay (the NFL’s smallest market) and New Orleans prime-time regulars.

“So, if the Bills continue to stack more good seasons, we will have plenty of trips to Buffalo in our future … and I would love that.”

Steve Levy, ESPN’s "Monday Night Football" play-by-play announcer, will be at Highmark Stadium for the Bills' Dec. 6 game against the New England Patriots, one of two games on the MNF schedule.

He has witnessed the Bills' “phenomenal fan base” since he worked as a stringer for WABC radio in New York for Bills games in the 1980s when he attended Oswego State.

“The local television ratings for Buffalo are off the charts, it is as good as anything in the league,” said Levy. “I have had warm and fuzzy feelings for the region for a long time … I know how crazy that town is about the Bills. It's almost in a way like a college kind of setting. It's almost like a college love affair with their local university and that's not the case (everywhere). Giants fans, they love their team, but it's not the same feeling. It's not the same atmosphere at Foxboro with the Patriots. I've always maintained Buffalo is the most underrated sports market in the country.”

NBC’s announcers mentioned during the Baltimore playoff game that the limited fans attending were loud.

“They made enough noise to make it feel like a real game,” said Gaudelli. “But it was too bad that as exciting as that team was last year … what a wild scene it would have been if we had the normal fans.”

The Bills' other SNF game is Oct. 10 against Patrick Mahomes and the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who play in the No. 32 TV market.

“That’s a hump game for Buffalo,” said Gaudelli. “That’s the team they are going to have to get by to get out of the AFC into the Super Bowl.”

Once again, the game isn’t about market size.

“Just like the Bills proved in the '90s, you have an exciting, excellent football team that has a fan base that the Bills have that kind of supersedes the market,” said Gaudelli. “Would we love it if Buffalo was the second market or third market? Of course. But I don't think it matters as much as it used to. I think it's much more about attraction now. Do you have star power and are you entertaining? Those kind of things get people to watch.”

He thinks social media is one reason market size matters less now.

“Everything's less provincial,” said Gaudelli. “I may not have known as much about the Buffalo Bills in 1985 as I can in 2021. I mean, not know as much about Jim Kelly back then as I know about Josh Allen now. I just think everything is so well publicized and everything is presented. And people feel the excitement that without that constant social media, 24/7, television, all those things, you couldn't really have those experiences like in the late '80s, early '90s.”

Bills vs. Bucs 'screams national television'

Naturally, NBC would have liked to have the Bills-Tampa game. It will be the late game carried nationally by CBS at 4:25 p.m. Sunday Dec. 12.

“What am I giving up to get it?” asked Gaudelli. “Because you can't have everything that you want. Josh Allen, Tom Brady, that's a great matchup. But the Kansas City game. That's the hump Buffalo has to get over, right? So yes, would I love the Tampa game? Absolutely, but I understand why we don't.”

“That game screams national television,” agrees North of the Bills-Bucs contest. “The 4:25 time slot is essentially prime time.”

One of Tampa’s three scheduled SNF games – the max allowed – is at New England Oct. 3, featuring Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady returning to face his former team.

“It’s no shock, the game we wanted more than any other was Tampa at New England,” said Gaudelli. “I’ve been producing these games for 31 years and that’s going to be the biggest regular-season game I’ve ever done.”

The Bills could get a third game flexed to the SNF schedule since they currently have four prime-time games on SNF and MNF. The maximum number of prime-time games a team can initially have scheduled is five, but teams can get up to seven prime-time games if two additional are flexed in the final weeks.

Gaudelli agrees that you could make a case the Bills could have had a third SNF game scheduled.

“100 percent,” said Gaudelli, who noted a third Bills game could be flexed to SNF if a late-season scheduled game looks like a dud.

“And the Bills have a pretty good schedule. It’s a crap shoot every year. You just don’t know who is going to be what you thought they were in May by the end of the season.”

Buffalo was in that category last year, when nobody saw a 15-4 season happening, Josh Allen’s improvement and Buffalo becoming a happening prime-time destination in 2021.

How we see it: Division winners, Super Bowl winner, award winners

Here are The News' predictions for NFL division winners, playoffs and individual award winners:

Category Skurski Fitzgerald Gaughan  Wolf Lenzi 
AFC East   Bills Bills Bills Bills  Bills
AFC North  Ravens  Browns  Browns  Browns Ravens 
AFC South  Titans  Titans  Titans  Titans  Colts 
AFC West  Chiefs  Chiefs  Chiefs  Chiefs  Chiefs 
NFC East  Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Washington FT
NFC North  Packers  Packers  Packers  Packers  Packers 
NFC South  Buccaneers  Buccaneers  Buccaneers  Buccaneers  Buccaneers 
NFC West  Seahawks  Rams  49ers  Rams Rams 
AFC wild cards 

Colts, Browns, Chargers

 Chargers, Ravens, Patriots   Ravens, Patriots, Chargers  Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers Steelers, Titans, Browns
NFC wild cards  Saints, Rams, 49ers 49ers, Saints, Seahawks Rams, Seahawks, Vikings  Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings Saints, 49ers, Rams
AFC champion  Chiefs  Bills  Chiefs Bills  Chiefs
NFC champion  Packers Buccaneers  Rams  Buccaneers  Buccaneers 
Super Bowl winner  Chiefs  Buccaneers   Chiefs  Buccaneers  Buccaneers 
League MVP  Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Josh Allen, Bills  Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Coach of the Year Matt LaFleur, Packers  Brandon Staley, Chargers   Andy Reid, Chiefs  Nick Sirianni, Eagles Sean McDermott, Bills 
Offensive POY   Josh Allen, Bills  Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Josh Allen, Bills  Derrick Henry, Titans Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Defensive POY  Myles Garrett, Browns Aaron Donald, Rams  Myles Garrett, Browns Aaron Donald, Rams T.J. Watt, Steelers 
Top rookie  Kyle Pitts, Falcons  Micah Parsons, Cowboys Kyle Pitts, Falcons  Kyle Pitts, Falcons Najee Harris, Steelers

As excitement surges for Bills fans, so do ticket prices

Buffalo Bills fans pack the stadium in Orchard Park and travel to support their team in an ordinary year. And this is not expected to be an ordinary year.

Entering a season with Super Bowl aspirations, the Bills are becoming an even hotter ticket. According to TicketIQ, the average price for a Bills game is $414, an increase of 159% over 2019, the last time fans were allowed at full capacity. Consider that prices for NFL tickets are soaring as fans return and prices for the league overall are up 87%. The percentage increase for Bills tickets is almost double the increase.

Even with the big increase, Bills tickets rank 17th in the league in price.

In the last two seasons – 2019 and 2020 – Bills tickets have seen a 153% increase, based on the average secondary market list price, according to TicketIQ. That ranks eighth in the league in percentage increase. The Raiders, with their move to Las Vegas, have seen a 572% increase, and the Buccaneers are up 247%.

In the last 10 years, the cheapest ticket price for Bills games tracked by TicketIQ was $109 in 2013.

The Bills also have some desirable travel destinations for fans on the 2021 schedule, including Miami, Nashville, Tampa Bay and New Orleans for a Thanksgiving night game with the Saints. Tickets to the Tampa Bay game are among the top 10 most expensive tickets for any game in the league this season on the secondary market, with an average price of nearly $900. In case you’re wondering, the most expensive ticket is Tom Brady’s return to New England on Oct. 3, at more than $3,000 apiece.

PlayAction: Bills on alert for Chiefs' trick plays near goal line

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Erik Brady: Don Beebe shares memories of 4 TD game against Steelers 30 years ago today

Don Beebe broke his leg in a game against the Miami Dolphins a couple of days before Christmas 1990. Weeks later, he watched the Buffalo Bills lose their first Super Bowl. He had a 14-inch rod in his left tibia.

“I thought maybe my career was over,” he says.

It was not. And the next season – 30 years ago today – he proved it for all to see.

Beebe caught four touchdown passes as Buffalo beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 52-34 at Rich Stadium. It was the Bills’ second game of the 1991 season; they beat the Dolphins in the season opener 35-31, also at Rich.

“I had a decent game against Miami,” Beebe says. “And then the second game it was like, ‘Boom! He’s OK.’ It was kind of a relief for me, and everyone in the organization.”

Beebe caught touchdown passes of 34, 14, 11, and 4 yards. It is the team record, tied with Jerry Butler, who caught four against the New York Jets in 1979. (Only three players in NFL history have caught five touchdown passes in one game: Bob Shaw for the Chicago Cardinals in 1950, Kellen Winslow for the San Diego Chargers in 1981 and Jerry Rice for the San Francisco 49ers in 1990.)

Jim Kelly threw six touchdown passes for the Bills on that balmy day three decades ago.

“The Steelers were Jim’s favorite team as a kid, so he always liked playing good against them,” Beebe says. “It was one of those things where he just got hot with one receiver – and really he was just hot altogether. I think he had one to James and one to Andre as well.”

Beebe’s memory is correct: James Lofton’s touchdown catch came from 54 yards. Andre Reed’s came from 14.

Beebe remembers each of his four like it was, well, not yesterday, but maybe the day before yesterday.

“Two of them were slants in the red zone. One was a go route when Jim saw the corner pressed up on me. And here is what people don’t know: Three of the four touchdowns were ad-libbed. Jim looked out at me, saw the coverage, called the play, and then gave me an individual route when he saw I could beat the corner.”

Kelly called his own plays in the Bills’ no-huddle offense and sometimes gave hand signals to a particular receiver to run a different route from the one that the receiver would normally run on the called play.

“He would yell out, or usually just give me a signal,” Beebe says. “That’s how good Jim was in that offense.”

Beebe was pretty good in it, too. He thinks that’s because defenses felt they had to key on Reed and Lofton and running back Thurman Thomas.

“Think about the guys I was blessed to play with: Two Hall of Fame wideouts. A Hall of Fame running back. A Hall of Fame quarterback.” He pauses to laugh. “It was a fun offense to play in, that’s for sure.”

These days, Beebe is running his own no-huddle offense as head coach of Aurora University, in Illinois. The Spartans, in the NCAA’s Division III, lost 39-33 in the final seconds of their season opener Saturday against sixth-ranked St. John’s in Collegeville, Minn. And this Saturday they will face No. 3 North Central College in Naperville, Ill.

“My motto is always play teams that are better than you,” Beebe says. “We get to face the No. 6 and No. 3 teams in the country before we even start conference play. I wouldn’t have it any other way.”

He led the Spartans to a 9-2 record in his first season, in 2019, and was named regional coach of the year. (Last season the team did not play, except for three games in the spring.)

How much of Beebe’s coaching philosophy comes from Marv Levy, his Hall of Fame coach on the Bills?

“A lot. He’s one of the greatest men I ever met, to be honest with you," Beebe said. "I think what makes him great is his humility. To be a great leader you have to be a humble guy, and that was Coach Levy through and through.”

When he got the job at Aurora, Beebe called Levy to ask for advice.

“I kind of knew what he was going to say, but I wanted to hear him say it anyway. He said, ‘Surround yourself with character. Find players with character.’ And, boy, was he right.”

Beebe is known for the character he displayed in Super Bowl XXVII, when he ran down Leon Lett of the Dallas Cowboys, who was about to score a touchdown in a game that was already decided.

How many times a week does Beebe hear about that play, even now?

"Every day,” he says. “That might sound strange, but it’s the truth. It comes up every day. And I’m OK with that now. Initially, I wasn’t, because we got killed and I was not happy. But as time has gone on, it has given me an opportunity to coach kids and speak at banquets and talk about never giving up.

“We live in a world right now, with everything going on, where so many people give up. And I think people can relate to me and listen to me when I tell them, ‘Hey, man, we can’t ever give up.’ ”

The Bills of his era never did.

“When you go back to four Super Bowls,” he says, “that’s a team that never gives up.”

The Bills lost all four, of course. Beebe played in two more for the Green Bay Packers. And when at last he won one, he thought of Buffalo.

“I’m looking at the clock and watching those last 10 seconds click off and I’m thinking to myself, ‘Oh my God, I’m finally going to win this crazy thing.’ And the thoughts just flooded me and I became emotional and I thought about all the guys I played with in Buffalo, and Marv and Ralph (Wilson) and Bill (Polian). And I know this is going to sound strange, but I felt guilty. I thought, ‘Why me?’

“And I wished all those people could have been right there with me. So my thoughts really truly did go back to all of the people and all of the fans in Buffalo.”

Now he hopes the coming season is one that ends just that way for the Bills.

“Do you know why teams win? Why the Kansas City Chiefs are winning now?" he asked. "They have an owner who cares about the players. They have a head coach everyone loves to play for. They have a general manager who, same thing. They have a great quarterback. And that’s what we had in Buffalo. And then you throw those fans in on top of that? I mean, come on, you can’t find a better situation than what we had in Buffalo.”

The Bills might have a similar situation percolating in Orchard Park today.

“Time will tell. I’m not saying they don’t have that now, but that’s a hard thing to replicate. I hope they do. That would mean glory days for all of us Bills fans. They certainly have the talent. But it takes more than talent.

“Now that I’m coaching, I understand that. When you’re a player, you don’t realize it. It takes great chemistry. And what we had in Buffalo, the chemistry and the love we had for each other, that’s what made us great. And hopefully Buffalo has the same thing going right now.”

Last week, the Minnesota Vikings waived Beebe’s son, Chad, to injured reserve with a severe ankle injury.

“He had a great camp and was going to be their third or fourth receiver,” Beebe says. “The poor kid, he tore all four ligaments on the inside of his ankle. I feel so sorry for him.”

Chad is a slot receiver who will hit the open market when he’s healthy. Beebe believes his son will play somewhere in the league again next season. Who knows? Maybe the Bills or Packers might sign him.

“Wouldn’t that be something?” Beebe says.

One thing is sure: The son need look no farther than his father for an example of an NFL receiver who came back from a terrible injury.

Before that Steelers game 30 years ago, Bebee had caught just three touchdown passes in two seasons. And then four in one game.

“It was just one of those special days,” Beebe says. “I’ll never forget.”

Air Allen: How Bills' offense merges elite talent with excellent scheme

Former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky reaches for a golf analogy to describe the challenge facing Josh Allen in 2021.

“Golf is one of my favorite games, and the hardest thing to do in golf is follow a birdie with a birdie,” said Orlovsky, an ESPN analyst. “I want Josh Allen to follow a birdie with a birdie. That’s my realistic expectation. I want to see him have another dominant season. I want to see him have another MVP-worthy campaign. They kept their offensive coordinator, their offensive line and their skill position guys. So that should be something that I don’t even think is unrealistic. I believe that’s fair to expect.”

Former NFL quarterback Tony Romo thinks basketball when assessing what’s ahead for Allen.

“I relate this to Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan,” the CBS analyst and former Dallas Cowboy said, referring to the San Antonio Spurs’ championship coach and center. “Josh has a great coaching staff. Sean McDermott is incredible. Brian Daboll is incredible. If you get one of the top players in the league, like Duncan, who was in the top five in the season every year he played, I think that’s what you’re seeing that and you’re going to see that with Josh.”

High praise is everywhere for Allen after what he and the Buffalo Bills’ offense accomplished last season.

The Bills ranked No. 2 in the NFL in scoring at 31.3 points a game and No. 3 in passing yards, at 288 a game.

Allen accounted for 45 touchdowns passing and rushing, the second most in the league behind the 51 of NFL Most Valuable Player Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay.

The Bills became only the second NFL team ever to produce at least 20 first downs in all 16 games, joining the 2012 New England Patriots.

“Honestly, this is the most prolific, powerful, dynamic, seasoned offensive group that we’ve seen since the Jim Kelly days,” said former pro quarterback Jim Kubiak, director of the Western New York Quarterback Academy, who has been analyzing Allen's play for The News for three seasons.

Let the good times roll.

“Air Allen” is a marriage of elite talent with an excellent scheme.

The franchise

It would have been easy to imagine Allen getting drafted in 2018 and being placed in a run-first, play-action-heavy, deep-passing offense. That’s what Carolina did when it drafted big-bodied Cam Newton in 2011.

Or a team drafting Allen might have “protected” him by putting him in a run-first, highly schemed Gary Kubiak-style offense, the kind Minnesota runs for Kirk Cousins and Cleveland runs for Baker Mayfield. Excel at outside zone runs. Get the quarterback out of the pocket on bootlegs. Design clearly defined throws on a lot of crossing routes.

But that’s not the background of Daboll, who was part of Tom Brady’s dynamic pass attack in New England.

Daboll had faith that Allen could be a master distributor, reading the full field and slicing up the defense with possession passes.

“You look at what Brian Daboll is doing, and that is a precision passing attack,” said Jim Miller, the former Bears quarterback and SiriusXM NFL Radio host. “To me, the whole playbook is open to him. He can do the deep stuff because he has a hose for an arm. He can do the precision stuff because he took it to heart, worked on his motion and the stroke of his throw. He’s the precision passer now.”

To some degree, the national perspective on Allen is his breakthrough last season came out of nowhere. That’s not the case.

Allen’s completion percentage on throws less than 20 yards downfield rose from 59.7% as a rookie to 66.3% in his second year. Last year, it was his deep passing that greatly improved, going from 29th in the league on throws of 20-plus yards in 2019 (30.9%) to sixth (47.2%), according to Pro Football Focus.

Overall last season, Allen’s completion percentage (69.2%) ranked fourth in the NFL.

“I agree 100%, he has gotten better each and every year,” said Ken Dorsey, the Bills' quarterbacks coach. “You see it with all the great ones throughout time, it’s a constant drive to get better and a constant drive to win. The only way to do that is to work hard and continue to be open to hard coaching when you do make a mistake. Josh is fantastic with that.”

Obviously, improved skill at wide receiver has allowed Allen’s arm talent to blossom. The Bills had the most completions in the NFL to wide receivers last year, headed by Stefon Diggs’ NFL-best 127.

Allen’s ability to attack all levels of the defense takes full advantage of the receiving talent.

“They haven’t limited Josh, because he has no limitations,” Miller said. “When he came out of Wyoming, everybody talked about the completion percentage. I remember watching him on tape. He could do things no other quarterbacks could do because he’s that physically gifted.

“In their bowl game against Central Michigan, he ran what’s called a 135 play-action,” Miller said, referring to a fake run off left tackle. “So you’re backing out to your left. You’re faking like a ride 35, and he’s got a backside skinny post. It’s probably the most difficult throw you can make as a quarterback. He makes the fake, drops back 5 yards and rifles a backside skinny post for a touchdown. That’s something you don’t see just any quarterback being able to do.”

Allen’s arm talent was on display all training camp this summer.

“The day I was there for practice this training camp, he threw a corner route over Tre’Davious White that was unbelievable,” Miller said. “I interviewed Tre’Davious after practice and he said, ‘Dude, that guy looked me off to the right and then he carried the receiver all the way to the back corner and put it in the top spot above the defensive back for a touchdown.’ He’s a precision thrower now. He can carve you up underneath. It’s something special to watch.”

At 6-5 and 240 pounds, Allen also has the ability to “play above the scheme.” That means overcoming a perfect call by the defense or a busted assignment by a teammate.

A prime example last season was the playoff victory against Indianapolis, which executed a great game plan with the No. 5-ranked defense in the league but still lost, 27-24. Allen made two amazing throws to Gabriel Davis on scrambles outside the pocket to produce a critical touchdown drive.

“He did so many great things for us in that game to help us win,” Dorsey said. “That’s obviously one of the huge advantages of a guy like Josh – his ability to improvise and create and do things when things break down or do things when defenses have the right call. There’s going to be times where they may have a better call than we do. At the end of the day, it’s our job to either make it right with the read by making a good decision and throwing the ball away. Sometimes that’s the best decision you can make. Or extend the play and get out of the pocket and make something happen with your arm or your feet, which obviously he’s excellent at.”

Helping the quarterback

The Bills used three receivers, one tight end and back – 11 personnel – on 72.8% of the plays last year, according to Buffalo News charts. That ranked sixth in the NFL. The Bills used 10 personnel (four wide receivers and no tight ends) on 13.3%, second in the league to Arizona.

Overall, the Bills spread the field with three or more receivers on a league-high 87% of their plays.

On paper, the receiving corps could be even better this year, because everyone is back except for John Brown. And newcomer Emmanuel Sanders is expected to be a slight upgrade over Brown, who was limited by injuries to nine games last season.

“They trust that those skill position guys can utilize space so well,” Orlovsky said. “Stefon Diggs uses space so well, so give it to him. Cole Beasley uses space so well, give it to him. Gabe Davis uses space so well. Allow those guys space.”

Daboll helps give the passing game more space with play-action run fakes. The Bills led the NFL last season by running play action on 36% of pass plays, according to Football Outsiders.

The Bills also are one of the most pass-first teams in the NFL.

On first down in the first three quarters of games last year, the Bills passed a league-high 63.6%, according to Sharp Football. On all downs in the first three quarters, the Bills were fourth in pass percentage, at 63.9%. (We don’t count the fourth quarter, because good teams often are running to protect a lead and run the clock late in games.)

“Obviously, we try to tailor everything we do to Josh,” Daboll has said repeatedly. “Try to make the quarterback’s job easier.”

“First down, defenses aren’t scheming to stop the pass, so why not throw it every single first down?” Kubiak said. “It’s much harder to throw against nickel and dime defenses on third-and-8 than it is on first-and-10.”

Some of the versatility in the Bills’ attack comes from the ability of receivers with different skill sets to play different positions.

“Under Daboll, the Bills’ offense has continued to build and diversify its group of wide receivers, making it all but impossible for defenses to hone in to limit any one player,” Kubiak said. “This balance and interchangeability gives Daboll the freedom to adjust formations and personnel without sacrificing production. This gives the Bills multiple offensive option route weapons, at any time, anywhere on the field.”

Daboll further stresses the defense – and limits its blitzing options – by running empty sets about 10% of the time. With five receivers split out wide, most teams want one safety deep, which means Allen knows there probably is only five or fewer men rushing.

“You’re trying to always attack the defense’s weakness, but you have a blueprint,” Romo said. “You have something you’re always going back to that you know we can rely on this. I think a lot of coaches sometimes just throw darts at the board. They say this week we’re going to do this or this.

“What you want to do is have a scheme and say. 'We live in this world,'” Romo said. “Then we’re going to live a little more over here in this 20% this week because this defense does this. That’s instead of saying, 'OK, we’ve got these brand-new plays this week.' No. This is our scheme. We’re just going to live more over here this week because this defense does this. I think Brian does a really good job of that. I think you’re seeing the result of really talented people coming together.”

“It never ceases to amaze me how unorthodox Daboll is,” Kubiak said. “Take last week’s game against Green Bay. Who comes into a preseason game with a $258 million quarterback and throws the ball every single time in the first quarter? I think it’s spectacular.”

Defending Air Allen

One challenge Allen is sure to face this season is the testing of his patience.

A basic tenet of defending any potent offense: Don’t give up the big play.

Defenses must respect Allen’s big arm.

“We saw this a little bit last year, and I think we’re going to see it again,” Orlovsky says. “We’re going to dare them to play boring football. We’re going to dare Josh to just play boring, not jaw-dropping, not sexy football. That’s hard for guys that are ridiculously talented because anybody can do that.”

Orlovsky served as a backup to former first overall pick Matthew Stafford in Detroit from 2014 to 2016.

“I remember being with Matthew Stafford and having this conversation,” he said. “I asked him, ‘Hey Dude, why won’t you just take that checkdown? I know we’ve got four verticals on. But they’re playing soft Cover 2 and everybody’s dropping back. Why won’t you just take the checkdown? He looked at me and said, ‘Because you can make that throw.’”

“It was an eye-opening thing because guys who are that talented, they’ve done it, they know that they can and they always want to. I think defenses are just going to play soft – almost like a Bill Belichick style of defense. Make him go 10 plays over the course of that series. Over the course of four quarters, can you do five 10-play drives of really disciplined, boring football?”

Allen showed he can take what the defense gives him last year. The Bills had 28 touchdown drives last season of eight or more plays, including four against New England in a Week 16 victory.

This is a big reason why a more efficient running game is important. The Bills had the fourth highest percentage of runs (41%) last season against “light boxes,” meaning six or fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage. If defenses are going to sit back in coverage, the Bills must make them pay on the ground.

“That would be the way that I’d play him,” Orlovsky said. “Go hand the ball off. I believe teams are going to dare Josh to do that.”

“At the end of the day for us it’s all about making good decisions,” Dorsey said of Allen’s ability to play with patience. “Whatever the play call based on the defense you’re seeing. It’s about making good decisions and playing the game like that. If we make good decisions, a lot of times then good things will happen and things will fall into place.”

The other key to defending a great quarterback: speed him up. That means getting pressure, but it doesn’t mean all-out blitzing. That’s usually too dangerous against a top QB.

Allen has improved dramatically against the blitz. Against pass rushes of five or more men in 2019, Allen completed 53.5% for 6.0 yards per attempt with six TDs and one interception (counting playoffs), according to Buffalo News charts. In 2020 against the blitz, he completed 66.5% for 8.3 yards per attempt with 16 TDs and two INTs.

The team that did the best job of speeding up Allen was Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Allen did not show enough patience in that game.

“I felt, especially early on in that game, that he was trying to prove how good he is,” Orlovsky said of Allen. “He played in a hurry and he was almost trying to prove that fact. That’s how he got himself into a little bit of trouble. He didn’t trust the things he was seeing.”

"There's a lot of mistakes looking back at that last game that we could have cleaned up, I could have cleaned up," Allen said. "And it’s something that I've been, like I said, chomping at the bit to get back on the field. So I think everybody in this locker room has the same type of mentality." 

Dorsey said every blitz Allen sees goes in the memory banks, and his mental library of defensive looks will get better every year.

“The more you play as a player of his caliber, the more you know what to do,” Dorsey said. “You are reacting because it’s becoming second nature based off of looks and your knowledge of your system. A goal obviously for a quarterback every year is to keep improving and keep building that library of knowledge from the different teams you’re facing. You’re going to see some different coordinators and teams. The more you see defenses and different schemes, the quicker you react on the field.”

“I think all of those things played a major factor in executing against pressure. It’s one of those things where the defense has two objectives – affecting the quarterback and creating confusion. If you’re on top of it making good decisions, then you can operate and find ways to take advantage of it.”

Allen faced a blitz by a defensive back more than any QB in the league last year – 21%, according to Football Outsiders. Because the Bills play so much spread offense, it’s no surprise defenses would blitz one of the slot cornerbacks off the edge. It’s something the Bills will continue to frequently see.

Great expectations

Dorsey knows that success in the NFL is hard-earned. There are going to be bumps in the road for Allen and the Bills this year, just like every season.

“No quarterback is going to go out and be perfect,” he said. “It’s too hard of a game, defenses are too good and you’re playing some of the best athletes in the world. You’re going to make mistakes. You’re going to have good games. You’re going to have bad games. You’re going to have games in between. It’s constantly learning from those things that I think really helps guys excel.”

"We as a team know that what we did last year is not going to carry over to this year," Allen said.

Nevertheless, expectations are very high.

“I think the coaching staff with McDermott and Josh together, and Brian, they’re going to be hard to beat year in and year out because they’re good in coaching, they’re good in scheme and they’re good with talent at that position,” Romo said. “It’s why the Spurs were so good for a long time, and I think the Bills are going to be just like them.”

“I want another repeat performance,” Orlovsky said. “I think they should be in the AFC title game. I do believe it would be a disappointment if they’re not.”

Western New York in the NFL entering Week 1

Here are players with Western New York ties on NFL rosters, injured reserve or practice squads entering Week 1: 

Rosters

TE Jody Fortson Jr., Kansas City Chiefs, South Park, ECC

TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Williamsville North

P Brett Kern, Tennessee Titans, Grand Island

LB Malcolm Koonce, Las Vegas Raiders, UB

LB Khalil Mack, Chicago Bears, UB

TE Chris Manhertz, Jacksonville Jaguars, Canisius College

LB Isaiah McDuffie, Green Bay Packers, Bennett

DE Steven Means, Atlanta Falcons, Grover Cleveland, UB

WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings, UB

RB Jarret Patterson, Washington Football Team, UB

C J.C. Tretter, Cleveland Browns, Akron High

Injured reserve

TE Stephen Carlson, Cleveland Browns, Jamestown

TE Tyree Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles, UB

Practice squads

OL Kayode Awosika, Philadelphia Eagles, UB

LB Demone Harris, Kansas City Chiefs, Bishop Timon-St. Jude, UB

OL Ryan Hunter, Los Angeles Chargers, Canisius High

OL Evin Ksiezarczyk, Washington FT, UB

CB Cam Lewis, Bills, UB

TE Tyler Mabry, Seattle Seahawks, UB

RB Qadre Ollison, Atlanta Falcons, Canisius High

TE Mason Schreck, New Orleans Saints, UB

OL Tyrone Wheatley Jr., Chicago Bears, Canisius High

Related to this collection

Bills Mailbag: Why this year's home opener promises to be unforgettable

Bills Mailbag: Why this year's home opener promises to be unforgettable

Jay Skurski answers readers' questions as the Buffalo Bills prepare for a "legendary" home opener.

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