Your guide to Sunday's Bills game against the Chargers

When the Bills run: Coach Sean McDermott said the team did a “deep dive” during the bye week on why the running game has been stuck in mud all season. It will be interesting, then, to see what changes. The first step could be to return Jon Feliciano to right guard, the position he played last year. The Bills have struggled running to the right side this season, averaging less than 3 yards on carries behind either right guard or right tackle. Feliciano is a rugged run blocker who could help fix that problem. The Chargers are the ideal opponent in attempting to fix the running game. Los Angeles ranks 27th in the NFL on a per-rush basis, allowing an average of 4.65 yards per carry. EDGE: Even.

When the Bills throw: The absence of John Brown will hurt the Bills. With him in the lineup, it would have been a challenge for the Chargers to figure out how to cover the trio of Brown, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. That becomes easier with Brown out, but in the process, rookie Gabriel Davis has a huge opportunity. Looking forward to 2021, the Bills will surely want to know if Davis is capable of taking on a much larger role in the offense. For as good as Brown has been in two years with the team, he’s 31 years old and has dealt with a variety of leg/ankle/knee/foot injuries this season. For a receiver who relies primarily on his speed, that’s problematic. If the Bills were to cut Brown after this season, the team could save $8 million against the 2021 salary cap. That’s a significant savings, so the idea can’t be outright dismissed. The Bills will have to pay extra attention to Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa, who can dominate a game. Los Angeles, though, will be without cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. and edge rusher Melvin Ingram III, two big losses. EDGE: Bills.

Bills Mailbag: Explaining the origins of the 'Bills Mafia'

Jay Skurski answers that and more in this week's mailbag.

When the Chargers run: On a per-rush basis, Los Angeles ranks just 27th in the NFL with 3.83 yards per carry. That means they are not quite as good a rushing team as their No. 10 overall ranking would suggest. The big question for the Chargers has centered on running back Austin Ekeler. He’s eligible to return from injured reserve, but as of Friday evening had yet to be activated. Ekeler had 47 carries for 236 yards in four games before getting hurt. EDGE: Even.

When the Chargers pass: The future is bright for rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. His numbers – 238 of 350 (68%), 2,699 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 104.7 passer rating – are stellar for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. He is on pace to set NFL records for a rookie quarterback in completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns. Herbert isn’t afraid to throw the ball into tight windows, trusting that his receivers will make plays. Keenan Allen is Los Angeles’ top threat. He’s one of the more precise route runners in the NFL. Tight end Hunter Henry also poses a problem for a Bills defense that has struggled at times this year to cover that position. EDGE: Chargers.

Inside the Bills: How Stefon Diggs' personality shines through – on his feet

The Buffalo Bills’ star receiver was in the dentist’s chair getting a root canal when he learned something new. “Boom,” Diggs said. “Cleat idea.”

Special teams: Rookie kicker Tyler Bass earned the trust of Bills Mafia by burying three field goals of 50-plus yards in the first half of the Week 10 loss to Arizona. With Bass and return man Andre Roberts having a strong season, the Bills have a big edge here. The Chargers have been a disaster on special teams, currently dead last in Football Outsiders’ rankings. They’ve been called for numerous penalties and had three punts blocked in the last five games. Things have gotten so bad that the Chargers reassigned special teams coordinator George Stewart on Wednesday. EDGE: Bills.

Hot read: Cody Ford's injury hurts, but Bills' O-line can overcome loss

Coaching: It’s a matchup of the Bills’ last two head coaches. Anthony Lynn worked one game as the Bills’ interim head coach at the end of the 2016 season after Rex Ryan was canned. Lynn is a good football coach and a better man. His team plays hard, although it has yet to find a way to pull out close games. Nine of the Chargers’ 10 games have been decided by less than eight points (one possession). McDermott's team has the benefit of extra rest coming out of the bye. The Bills are 3-0 in that situation in his first three years. EDGE: Bills.

Prediction: Bills 30, Chargers 21

Jon Feliciano was about six weeks removed from left shoulder surgery when the Bills’ offensive lineman was filmed roughing up some guy he’d never met in the hallway of a private residence in downtown Buffalo.

Then he did it again.

And again.

“Which was so hilarious to me, personally, because Jon is just a massive human being and the actor that they picked for this particular scene looked like just a little rag doll next to Jon,” said Feliciano’s publicist, Frances Reimers, recounting a day of filming the pilot episode for an unreleased mafia-themed TV show in late February. “In no reality would this human being ever be able to take on Jon, so for me personally, I was sitting off set while they were shooting that scene and kind of laughing hysterically because it just looked like Jon was throwing a child, even though it was a grown man.”

Feliciano, listed as 6-foot-4 and 325 pounds, has started at right guard, left guard and center since joining the Bills in 2019, and is expected to move back to guard Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers after playing center for most of the last three games.

His versatility on the field has been mirrored, if not exceeded, by his many exploits outside of football.

The 28-year-old heavily tattooed husband and father of two is a budding actor, model, gamer, philanthropist, cook, social media influencer, creative consultant and aspiring author, blossoming from a teenager living in a condemned trailer in South Florida into the Bills’ somewhat reluctant Renaissance Man.

“Honestly, I get ideas and then I tell Frances and then she is the driving force that makes me do all this,” Feliciano said. “It’s always that thing where, ‘Ahhh, do I really want to do this?’ Because I don’t love talking. I don’t love being in the public eye. But then, like the acting thing, the night before I was like, ‘Ahhh, I don’t want to do this.’ I was all nervous. And then I get there and I do it and I had a ball. I had a great time.”

Last offseason, Feliciano was cast for a speaking role in the pilot episode of “For Nothing,” a proposed television series based on a crime novel of the same name by Buffalo native Nicholas Denmon, who said the project is being shopped to studios.

Days later, in early March, Feliciano was photographed in spandex tights by renowned New York City photographer Howard Schatz for his project, “The Shape of the NFL,” which won first place in sports photography from the International Photography Awards and might become a coffee table book.

While he was in town, Feliciano filmed an unreleased cooking segment with acclaimed New York City chef and Bills fan Allison Fasano, who has appeared on the Food Network shows “Beat Bobby Flay” and “Chopped.”

Earlier this month, Feliciano was named the first U.S. influencer for Fortmen’s, a U.K.-based online fashion retailer that sells “big and tall” men’s clothing for sizes 2XL to 8XL from premium European brands. Customers can save 15% by using the code JON15.

Feliciano described his style as “relaxed but sexy.”

As for the best-dressed player in the Bills’ locker room?

“Me. But if I wasn’t going to say me,” Feliciano said, “I’d say the guy who dresses the best but also dresses the worst is Trent Murphy. Because Trent will dress like a freakin’ redneck from the boonies and then the next day come in with like a suit. Last year, when we went to away games, the first away game I was so surprised to see Trent in a freakin’ suit and pull it off the way he did.”

What does Feliciano know about fashion?

Not much. But he carries himself with a natural confidence and a style all his own.

“There’s different type of people, right?” Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “There’s people that are swaggy. There’s people that really don’t care about swag and they’re just like a default, clean cut, just-get-the-job-done, classy, honestly. And then you have guys that try to add a little spice to it, naturally. And Jon is one of those guys that is just a natural spice guy.

“You can just tell, ‘OK, he has an edge to him.’ When he walks around, when he talks to you, he speaks from the heart, and what he’s saying, he means. A lot of guys can’t be like that. A lot of guys try to, but they fake it. A guy like Jon is just natural. He cares. He’s a family man. And he likes video games. It’s the best of all worlds.”

Feliciano has made charity a priority.

At the start of the pandemic, Feliciano funneled $25,000 to Feeding South Florida and Meals on Wheels of South Florida. He donated more than $4,500 to Latinos in Action. In September, while on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle that forced him to miss the first seven games of the season, he hosted an esports tournament that raised $3,500 for the Hispanic Scholarship Foundation.

Josh Allen, who helped care for Feliciano while he was injured, participated and contributed signed merchandise for the cause.

“He brings some nasty when he’s on the field, for sure,” Allen said. “He’s a relentless effort type of guy, a guy that’s not afraid to step up for his dudes. He’s shown that to me a few times. I love him.”

As for why they’re such good friends?

“It’s hard to describe,” Allen said. “I just think that he’s always in a good mood, for one. He’s always trying to find light situations. I think we have very similar humor. So he’s just easy to talk to, easy to joke around with, his laugh is infectious. He’s got a lot of bromances with a lot of the guys in the locker room.”

Feliciano also recently collaborated with 26 Shirts for a “Felic Navidad” T-shirt, which bears his likeness and will generate proceeds for The Belle Center, a community center and human services agency in Buffalo. It’s available through Dec. 3. 

“I love it,” Feliciano said. “They were trying to do ‘Feliciano Navidad,’ and I was like, ‘No, no, no, we’ve got to do ‘Felic.’’ I saw the design and I was like, ‘Dang, dude that is perfect.’ It’s definitely the best Christmas shirt out this year.”

Feel cozy and festive over the holidays with a "Felic Navidad" crewneck sweatshirt! Made in partnership with @MongoFeliciano to benefit @TheBelleCenter. Get it before it's gone! https://t.co/052SNwKSbJ #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/jYVUsHJbVY

— 26shirts: Buffalo (@26shirts) November 26, 2020

‘Off to the races’

Feliciano met Reimers through his accountant, former Miami Hurricanes teammate Tyler Horn, shortly before he signed with the Bills.

“He was like, ‘I have a guy, he’s really ready to really buckle down and focus on his brand and start cementing his legacy for his football career and beyond, and I think that you guys would work really well together. Would you like to meet him?’” Reimers said.

“And I was like, ‘Absolutely.’”

Reimers has been in public relations and marketing for nearly two decades and founded her own company, Firestarter, in 2016. Her clients have included the Denver Nuggets, the NFL Alumni Association, Aaron Donald’s AD99 Solutions Foundation and Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s JR Motorsports.

Reimers flew to Tampa to meet with Horn, Feliciano and his wife, Shannon, and listened intently as he shared his story.

“We sat and talked for probably a little over two hours,” Reimers said, “and I just got a really great feel for everything that Jon is passionate about, what he enjoys doing … and as he was talking, I was just seeing so many verticals and niches and people and topics where Jon could fill in and be part of that narrative.”

Feliciano was born on Long Island in 1992, the middle child of three brothers, and his parents, of Puerto Rican and Sicilian descent, divorced when he was 10. His father drove a bus in New York. His mother, who moved the kids to Florida, worked at a nightclub and twice survived cancer. His older brother was violent and abusive. His younger brother, one of his inspirations, was born deaf.

Feliciano turned to video games and sports as an escape from his home life.

When his mom’s finances crumbled and she moved back to New York, Feliciano remained behind to finish his junior and senior years of high school while living at his friend Sean Cole’s house in the King’s Manor Trailer Park in Davie, Fla.

Feliciano played four seasons at the University of Miami, where he graduated with a degree in human resources management. Feliciano said he was a business major because he wanted to own a restaurant, a dream he might yet resurrect.

“I like making people happy,” Feliciano said. “When you cook a big meal and everyone’s eating and everyone’s smiling – the best part is when everyone’s quiet and everyone shuts up, because they’re just trying to eat. That brings me some joy.”

He was drafted in the fourth round by the Oakland Raiders in 2015.

Cole, the best man at Felciano’s wedding and namesake for his daughter, died after a single-car accident in 2016. He had been in a coma for four months when he was taken off life support. He was 22.

Feliciano’s entire right leg is tattooed in his memory. It includes the words “born sinner but I’ll die better than that,” lyrics from their favorite song by J. Cole, as well as planets, stars and an image of his friend climbing a stairway to heaven.

That was his first leg tattoo, but he already had both arms and his chest and back filled. His other leg includes tributes to Pokemon, Dexter's Laboratory and the Fresh Prince of Bel Air.

“When I look back at it, I wouldn’t trade my upbringing for anything,” Feliciano said, “because it made me – no one can mess with me. People can’t really get in my head.”

Reimers left the meeting enthused and eager to get to work.

“He’s just so approachable,” Reimers said. “He’s so real. And he really puts himself out there in a way that I think anyone from East Coast, West Coast, upper class, lower class, middle class, there’s something about him that is very versatile to just a myriad of different audiences.”

But there was nothing but radio silence.

“A couple of weeks went by and I didn’t hear anything and I reached out to him again and I’m like, ‘Hey, do we want to get something started here?’” Reimers said. “And he was like, ‘Oh, yeah. Sure. Yes.’ And we were off to the races after that. And that was literally right before he got picked up to come to Buffalo.”

‘See which ones stick’

Feliciano didn’t earn a full-time starting job in the NFL until he signed with the Bills in 2019, following offensive line coach Bobby Johnson’s move from Oakland to Buffalo.

Feliciano is in the final year of a two-year, $7.25 million contract and is slated to become an unrestricted free agent after the season. It seems a foregone conclusion that the Bills will try to bring him back, but Feliciano knows that football won’t last forever.

“Honestly, I’m dipping my toes in a lot of different areas so I know what to do after football, really,” Feliciano said. “Besides diving into my kids, which I will do, I’m going to need some kind of hobby or thing to keep me motivated throughout the day-to-day.”

That’s how Feliciano ended up practicing lines of dialogue with Reimers in an idling car one freezing day in February, before stepping on set for a long day of filming a TV pilot.

Denmon, a massive Bills fan, wanted local cameos in his production and reached out to Reimers to gauge Feliciano’s interest in participating, despite his lack of acting experience.

“I knew that the limited lines wouldn't be a huge issue,” Denmon said. “And the fight choreography was easy enough – plus he is a massive guy so he fit the part we were casting. Then he showed up on time, prepared, and really did a great job. We couldn't have been more pleased.”

Reimers said she pitched the idea to Feliciano late last season, when the Bills were playing in Pittsburgh and she was in the area working for Donald's charity in his hometown.

She said Feliciano trusts her judgment.

“I’m not opposed to telling him if I think something is going to be a waste of his time or if somebody’s using his visibility to raise their visibility,” Reimers said. “We have those conversations. But by and large, I know what he likes and what he doesn’t, and so I usually filter things to what I know he’s actually going to like, and I try to make it as digestible as possible and easy for him to get himself involved in, if he’s interested.

“And he’s not opposed to pushing back and saying, ‘No.’ Or, ‘Could we get this?’ Or, ‘Can I do this instead?’ He’s very vocal and very good at putting his two cents in. And by and large, he trusts that whatever I’m bringing his way, I’ve thought through and vetted and we have a pretty quick ‘yes/no’ conversation about a lot of the things that I put in front of him.”

In that moment, he said yes, even though he had second thoughts the night before filming. But he followed through on his commitment, and just like on gamedays, showed up prepared.

Denmon said Feliciano “brought a lot of joy and energy to the set,” but didn’t inform his colleagues that he played for the Bills.

“I didn't want the focus to be on his career versus the work he was doing,” Denmon said.

The scene where he roughed up the guy in the hallway took about three takes.

Another scene, where he was playing cards at a kitchen table, took almost 20, for various reasons.

It was sweltering on set, with so many people present, despite the windows being open.

“It was a great time,” Feliciano said. “People don’t understand how long days – they only needed me for one day – but that one day was one hell of a long day. Overall, I had a great experience.”

Since the presence of a Bills player wasn’t announced, Feliciano ended up going unrecognized for much of the day, even though a chunk of the cast and crew were from Buffalo.

“At the end of the day when the director or one of the producers was like, ‘Hope you and the Bills have a really good season,’” Reimers said, “people were like, ‘What? What? What?’ You could tell the light bulbs finally turned on in their head and they were like, ‘Oh my God! Oh my God! And they finally connected the dots of the whole day.’ It was really funny.

“That’s a perfect example of Jon. He’s just not a person that is like, ‘Hey, check me out, I play for the Buffalo Bills.’ He’s just an everyman. And so approachable.”

It’s uncertain whether the show will be picked up by a studio, and if it is, whether the studio will retain the same actors and actresses.

But there’s a chance Feliciano could get another phone call.

He’d be just fine with that.

“I guess I’m a marketable guy,” Feliciano said. “Let’s just throw everything on the dartboard and see which ones stick. Football has turned into a lot of other opportunities and I would be silly not to take them.”

Four matchups to watch for the Bills' game Sunday vs. the Los Angeles Chargers:

Daryl Williams vs. Joey Bosa. Bosa ranks No. 1 among full-time edge rushers in pressure percentage (10.4), according to Pro Football Focus. He has 4.5 sacks. Bosa was the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL draft in 2016. He’s a two-time Pro Bowler. He has 40 sacks in 51 career games. He has the elite combination of power and bend off the edge. He rushing off right tackle 75% of the time. Williams is having a stellar season. If he plays well vs. Bosa, this could add significant dollars to the free-agent windfall he’s likely to score in March.

Keenan Allen vs. Taron Johnson & Co. Allen spends 50% of his time playing out of the slot, so that’s a problem for Johnson, who is capable and tough, but not elite in coverage. Allen leads the NFL in catches with 81, and 36 have come out of the slot. He also leads the NFL in third-down catches. The Bills are not shutting down Allen no matter what they do. Expect a lot of zone coverage, so it certainly will not always be Johnson on him. Will the Bills match up Tre’Davious White on Allen whenever possible? It’s a distinct possibility.

Stefon Diggs vs. Tevaughn Campbell. The Chargers generally do not match up on the outside, and they’re a heavy zone team, so matchups are going to vary at wideout. But they're without their top corner, Casey Hayward, who plays on the left side. Veteran Chris Harris, a quality slot corner, is back from injury this week. Campbell, who spent four years in the CFL, is in his first NFL season. He has been filling in for Harris in the slot but seems like the obvious choice to move outside. It will be a big challenge for him, regardless of who he faces. 

Sam Tevi vs. Mario Addison & Co. The right side of the Chargers’ offensive line is pretty solid with Brian Bulaga at tackle and five-time Pro Bowler Trai Turner at guard. The left side is where the Bills need to win. Sam Tevi is a former sixth-round pick who has good size for a left tackle but not enough athleticism. Left guard Forrest Lamp and center Dan Feeney are not top-end starters, either. Feeney is starting because Mike Pouncey is out for the season due to injury. Whoever is playing 1-technique spot for the Bills should cause problems for the Chargers in the middle.

Here are my five takes on the Buffalo Bills’ game Sunday at 1 p.m. against the Los Angeles Chargers at Bills Stadium.

1. The disappointment over the loss at Arizona cannot linger.

As bitter and excruciating as it was, that last-second heartbreaker against the Cardinals must be pushed aside by now. That’s much easier said than done, of course, because of how the Bills allowed a sure victory to be ripped from their grasp on a play that drew media attention beyond the NFL and even sports in general.

Two weeks have passed since Kyler Murray’s miraculous touchdown throw to DeAndre Hopkins 32 seconds after Josh Allen’s spectacular TD connection with Stefon Diggs gave the Cards a two-point win. Either that is a enough time for the players and coaches to have gotten over the crushing nature of the defeat, or too much time to think about it and allow it to become a distraction.

Members of the defense, and especially the three players who failed to prevent Hopkins from making the catch on a jump ball in the end zone (cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer), would figure to have the toughest time getting over it.

“In our league, you have to be able to move on,” defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier told reporters on a video call earlier in the week. “Whether we would have won that game, or, in this case, we didn’t come away with the win, you have to be able to move on. Seven wins or eight wins don’t get you a whole lot in the National Football League, so for our guys, it’s all about moving on from that game and put all our attention and focus on the L.A. Chargers. Period.”

2. Find a way to overcome another game without John Brown. That means a much bigger contribution from rookie Gabe Davis.

There is every reason to expect the Chargers will generate some points, and this game could go the way of the other back-and-forth type the Bills have had several times this season. Therefore, the Bills’ offense must be at its prolific best.

This will be the third game that Brown, who the Bills list with an ankle injury and who has been bothered by knee and ankle problems for most of the season, will miss. When he is out of the lineup, the Bills’ passing game loses something that Davis so far has fallen short of providing.

Allen still has been able to get production from his other two main targets, Diggs and Cole Beasley, but there just isn’t the same level of explosiveness without the added dimension of Brown, both in terms of his play-making and ability to draw deep coverage from Diggs. The previous two games Brown missed were the Bills’ Oct. 13 loss at Tennessee and their Oct. 25 victory against the New York Jets.

Against the Titans, Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets for 106 yards and no touchdowns, followed by Beasley with six catches for 53 yards. Davis caught five of nine targets for 58 yards. Against the Jets, the Bills had no TDs. Beasley led the team with 11 catches for 112 yards, followed by Diggs with six receptions (on 11 targets) for 48 yards. Davis had only one catch for 11 yards on three targets.

3. Remind Justin Herbert that he is, in fact, a rookie.

Nothing in the way the Chargers’ quarterback is performing would indicate that he only has nine NFL starts. He has completed 68 percent of his passes (238 or 350) for 2,699 yards and 22 touchdowns, with only six interceptions. He has a passer rating of 104.7.

The Chargers have lost seven of those games, but Herbert isn’t the reason. They have many other shortcomings and have developed a habit of losing close games against upper-tier opponents.

The Bills have been able to study plenty of NFL video of Herbert in action. Plus, they have had extra time to devise a scheme to take advantage of his inexperience. Expect plenty of pass-rush combinations with a variety of blitzes and fake blitzing. There also likely will be different coverage looks with disguising designed to prompt Herbert to make throws to areas he shouldn’t.

As usual, pressure will be paramount in the Bills’ efforts to prevent him from making the most of Keenan Allen and other pass-catchers.

4. Is there any chance the problems with the running game were solved during the bye?

Maybe. There was a lot to fix, given the mostly dreadful work the Bills’ ground game has done for 10 weeks to put it 27th in the NFL. Assuming all the repairs could be made in a matter of days (with game-specific work taking precedent this past week) is probably unrealistic, especially now that highly athletic left guard Cody Ford has been lost for the season with a knee injury suffered in practice Wednesday.

That the Bills’ offensive profile this season is that of a pass-first team that sprinkles in the run occasionally is hardly a revelation. The question is, are there going to be times when offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will see the need to lean more heavily on the run as he did in one game, the Nov. 1 victory against New England? The obvious reason why Daboll leaned on the run game then was the Patriots’ terrible run defense.

However, what about when the Bills go against an opponent capable of piling up points with a quick-strike attack? The Chargers are such a team. They also have the league’s 15th-ranked run defense.

What will it take to get the Bills’ run game in gear?

“I think it comes as the game flows. Just having more reps at it during the game and things like that,” rookie Zack Moss told reporters Friday. “It’s kind of a rep thing. You’ve kind of have got to get into a rhythm, and that works for the offensive line and that works for the backs and everything like that.”

5. Is there any chance the problems with the run defense were solved during the bye?

Again, maybe. There is even more to fix here, considering the Bills rank 28th in the NFL against the run and have yet to demonstrate they can handle average backs, let alone elite-level players at the position.

The Chargers are tied for 10th in the league in rushing. Their coach, Anthony Lynn, believes in more of a power-oriented offensive approach. He will likely try to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible to take advantage of the vulnerability in the Bills’ run defense, while also being mindful of the need to minimize the time Allen and Diggs spend on the field.

• • •

Game details

TV: CBS. Announcers: Greg Gumbel (play-by-play), Rich Gannon (analyst).

Radio: Bills Radio Network. Buffalo-WGR 550 AM; Toronto-Fan 590 AM; Rochester-WCMF 96.5 FM and WROC 950 AM; Syracuse-WTKW 99.5 FM and WTKV 105.5 FM. Announcers: John Murphy (play-by-play), Steve Tasker (analyst).

Series history: The Chargers lead the series, 25-12-2 (including postseason).

Bills injury report: Out: WR John Brown (ankle).

Chargers injury report: Out: DE Melvin Ingram III, LB Uchenna Nwosu, CB Casey Hayward Jr. Questionable: RB Kalen Ballage.

Point spread: The Bills are a 5 1/2-point favorite at vegasinsider.com.

Did you know: The Bills have generated at least 20 first downs in all 10 of their games this season. If they do so Sunday, the 11-game streak will be the longest in team history.

Next: The Bills play the first of three prime-time games remaining on their schedule when they face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, Dec. 7, at Levi’s Stadium.

Micah Hyde likes to use the phrase “deepest of the deep” in describing deep-safety responsibilities.

The Buffalo Bills will need to keep that in the forefront of their minds Sunday against Los Angeles Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert.

Herbert has elite arm strength, so much so that some compared it with that of Josh Allen before the draft. And he has been using it to stick daggers into opponents.

Herbert has six passes of 50-plus yards, most in the NFL.

He’s fourth in the NFL in deep passing yards with 692, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s yards gained on throws that travel 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage. He has 10 TD passes on throws 20-plus yards, which is second to Seattle’s Russell Wilson. He has 19 completions of 20-plus yards, tied for fourth. Josh Allen has 18.

“His accuracy throwing the football downfield has really been off the charts,” said Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. “I mean, those guys really don’t break stride. They’ve hit a bunch of explosives, and their underneath work with Keenan Allen really stood out this past weekend against the Jets. But those shots they take down the field, he does a really, really good job of putting the ball where only his players can make a play on the football. So, credit to his accuracy and his arm strength. He’s done a heck of a job.”

The Bills’ defense will have to be careful about the Chargers taking play-action deep shots. Herbert made a great throw on a second-and-1 play-action for a 49-yard gain in Week 5 against the Saints.

Here's the play, in which the Saints' safety fails to stay deep in a three-deep zone:

Herbert also has shown the arm strength to stand in against the blitz and go over the top without fully stepping into the throw. He did it on a 72-yard TD pass against Tampa Bay in Week 4.

“I told Anthony [Lynn] after the game, you’ve got a great one,” Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians said after the Bucs’ 38-31 win over the Chargers. “That looked like [Patrick] Mahomes, where we had an all-out blitz, and he just kept retreating. Then he threw a dime down the field. For rookies to make plays like that, you know they’re special.”

“Young kid was out there taking a lot of hits today," Saints defensive end Cam Jordan said after New Orleans’ 30-27 win. "Our front seven got after him pretty well. He made a lot of great plays down the stretch. ... He may be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.”

Herbert has been good against pressure, too. He shredded the Jets last week, hitting 15 of 19 for 120 yards against blitzes. The Jets are having big problems in the defensive secondary.

Two teams that caused Herbert some problems in recent weeks with disguised looks and pressure were Miami and Denver.

Herbert is the fifth rookie in NFL history with five 300-yard passing games. He has five three-TD games, the most by a rookie ever in the NFL.

Here was part of the pre-draft evaluation on Herbert from NFL Network producer Greg Cosell: “Herbert will be a fascinating evaluation and will likely be polarizing. He has many desirable traits: Size, arm strength, excellent movement and mobility, but there are questions and concerns about his lack of timing and anticipation and consistent ball placement. There were times watching Herbert’s senior tape that he reminded me of Josh Allen, big, physical, strong, powerful arm, excellent movement and mobility.”

Defending Allen: Expect a lot of zone coverage from the Chargers as they try hard to limit explosive plays from the Bills’ attack. Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley made his reputation in the NFL as defensive chief in Seattle from 2009 to 2012. Head coach Pete Carroll and Bradley built the Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” secondary, which helped the team win the Super Bowl in 2013. That Seattle team played a ton of Cover 3 zone and used “NASCAR” edge rushers to wreak havoc.

Bradley still prefers zone coverage and varied four-man rushes, and he has two star edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. His defensive backfield does not compare with the old Seahawks, especially since big-hitting safety Derwin James is out for the year.

The Chargers blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL last season, 11.2%, according to Football Outsiders. The league average was about 26%. This year, the Chargers are among the lowest in blitzing again, at 14.2%, according to Pro Football Focus.

Los Angeles might be getting slot cornerback Chris Harris back. He has missed seven games with a foot injury. He’s a good slot man. The expectation is the Chargers will try to copy some of what Tennessee did to the Bills, mixing zone coverages after the snap and trying to take away some quick throws to Cole Beasley with either Harris or bracket coverage.

The downside of playing a lot of one type of coverage, like Cover 3, is the opponent knows what to expect. The upside is your players are used to seeing a lot of the same passing concepts used against them and they get good at the coverage. Of course, it all comes down to the quality of the players executing the scheme.

The 30,000-foot view: The Chargers have been a snake-bit franchise the past two years in close games. Los Angeles is a ridiculous 4-16 since the start of 2019 in games decided by one score. That includes 2-9 last year and 2-7 this year. Earlier this season the Chargers became the first team in NFL history to blow leads of 16-or-more points in four straight games. They were up 24-7 on Tampa and lost, 38-31. They were up 20-3 on New Orleans and lost, 30-27. They were up 16-0 on Jacksonville, fell behind and won, 39-29. They were up 24-3 on Denver and lost, 31-30. San Diego fans will tell you it’s a long-standing trend. The Chargers have lost 72 games by seven points or fewer since 2006, the most in the NFL. ... The progress of Herbert might help the job security of the Chargers’ brain trust. Lynn is signed through the end of the 2021 season. It’s believed General Manager Tom Telesco, the St. Francis High graduate, has a contract through at least the end of 2021. Telesco signed an extension early in 2019. Telesco picked Herbert. Lynn can argue he got the QB’s development off to a good start. Still, the Chargers are going to miss the playoffs. They’ve made the playoffs once in four years under Lynn and twice in eight seasons under Telesco (although four of those seasons have been winning years). In the NFL, that puts them on thin ice.

Stats for the road: In a scheduling oddity, Jim Kelly never faced the Chargers. The Bills didn’t play San Diego between 1985 and 1998. ... The Bolts have a 9-5 record in the East or London in the regular season since 2017, trailing only Seattle and the Rams (11 wins) over that span among Pacific Time Zone teams.

Here are predictions for Sunday's Buffalo Bills game from members of The News' sports staff.

Vic Carucci

For most of the final six weeks of the season, the lone potential barrier between the Bills and the AFC East championship will be themselves.

This is not to suggest the Bills have things locked up, but there's some space between them and the closest challenger, the Miami Dolphins, thanks to a head-to-head victory and a better division record. And after the Dolphins' surprising loss last week against Denver, and the strange quarterback shuffling they insist on doing, it's clear they're not ready to lock in for the stretch run.

On the other hand, the Bills should be ready. The way to demonstrate that is to win the games they should win, and this, as with all except their Sunday night showdown against the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers, is one of them.

The Bills' priority is to keep Josh Allen upright against a strong pass rush and making Justin Herbert perform like the rookie he is. Bills, 34-20.

Jay Skurski

The Bills have no excuses in this one. They are well-rested coming off a much-needed bye week. As a result, they are as healthy as they've been in a long while – although the ankle injury to receiver John Brown is a bit of a concern. Most importantly, they are the better team, playing at home. At 7-3, the Bills are in good shape in the race for their first AFC East title since 1995, but they still have to take care of business. 

That means beating a 3-7 Chargers team starting a rookie quarterback, albeit one as promising as Justin Herbert. The Chargers have played in a bunch of close games – a 10-point win against Jacksonville was the only one of their 10 results that has been more than one possession – but haven't figured out how to pull those games out. That shouldn't be a possibility for them Sunday. The Bills have more talent on both sides of the ball and need to show it in a convincing win. Bills, 30-21. 

Mark Gaughan

You look at the roster of the Chargers, and there is more talent than one would expect to see on a 3-7 team. They have some studs. Look at the close games they’ve lost to good teams: Kansas City, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Las Vegas. Yet their defense is not playing up to preseason expectations and looks like it can be vulnerable to the Bills’ passing attack.

It’s fortunate for the Bills that safety Derwin James is out for the season due to injury. I see another tense, close game. I think it's good news for the Bills, actually for both teams, that the weather looks promising for late November.

I think the Chargers will be able to score, but the Bills’ defense will limit big plays. Bills, 31-27. 

Jason Wolf

By the time the Bills take the field, they will have had two full weeks to sit and stew on their last-second loss to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.

And two full weeks to prepare for rookie Justin Herbert, who’s incredibly gifted but only 2-7 as a starter, thanks in large part to the Chargers’ inconsistent defense and special teams. Special teams coordinator George Stewart was reassigned this week and assistant special teams coach Keith Burns was promoted. 

Sean McDermott is undefeated in the first game after a bye since becoming coach of the Bills in 2017. That trend continues. Bills, 31-24.

Rachel Lenzi

As the window starts to close on the regular season, the Bills have more at stake here.

The Chargers’ shortcoming has been making the most of their talent, which they haven’t. They have skill players – including quarterback Justin Herbert and receiver Keenan Allen – but they don’t have the wherewithal to pull out close wins. Their 34-28 win against the Jets last week was either an indictment of the Chargers or an illustration of the Jets maybe not being as awful as some would think.

This is a matchup of two dynamic offenses, particularly in the pass game. Bills quarterback Josh Allen continues to have plenty of receiving options, and Herbert averages almost 300 yards a game passing on team a that’s third in the NFL in passing (279.6 yards per game) … ahead of the Bills (278.9 yards per game).

It will be another high-scoring affair, but bank on the Bills rebounding after some time off and a stunning end to a loss to the Cardinals. Bills, 34-27.

Inspiration struck Stefon Diggs in a rather unusual spot recently.

The Buffalo Bills’ star receiver was in the dentist’s chair getting a root canal when he learned something new.

Funk legend Rick James was born and raised here, Diggs was told.

“Boom,” Diggs said. “Cleat idea.”

The following week, Diggs’ white Nike cleats featured an image of James – well, comedian Dave Chappelle’s legendary impersonation of him from “Chappelle’s Show” – when the Bills played the Seattle Seahawks.

“It's been going on for a few years now,” Diggs said of his weekly customized cleats. “I can't give you all the secret sauce to the recipe, but I try to do it based on the city we're in or the team that we're playing. When we were in New York last year, I did ‘Coming to America.’ We were at home, so Rick James was perfect.”

Bills fans know what they have in Diggs on the field since he came over in an offseason trade with the Minnesota Vikings.

The team’s No. 1 receiver is on pace to finish with franchise single-season bests in catches (a projected 117) and yards (1,450). His 73 catches for 906 yards through 11 weeks rank second in the NFL.

Off the field, however, it’s been tougher to know what makes Diggs tick. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has done more than just keep fans out of Bills Stadium. Players have basically been relegated to the workplace and their homes. If not outright prohibited, going out in the community has been highly discouraged.

Diggs typically speaks to the media just once a week, and while he has been illuminating on a variety of topics, it’s hard to truly get to know someone via video conference. The one space that Diggs has flashed his personality, though, is on his feet.

Almost every week, the receiver wears a pair of customized cleats that are made in collaboration with sneaker-artist-to-the-stars Dan “Mache” Gamache. A Poughkeepsie native, Gamache, 41, owns and operates Mache Custom Kicks, making one-of-a-kind sneakers or cleats for a client list that includes not just Diggs, but also LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Steph Curry and several other of the biggest stars in the NBA, NFL, MLB and WWE.

Gamache has gone from working out of his mother’s basement to operating an empire. He has more than a half-million followers on Instagram, and his website cautions customers that the wait time for an order can sometimes be up to six months with a cost toward $500 depending on the intricacy of the design. 

“It's highly detailed stuff,” Gamache said. “My goal is never to have a million guys on my roster. It’s a quality-over-quantity deal. I like to focus on a couple guys who really do appreciate the artwork and just put all my energy into that.”

Cousin of 'Bills Mafia'

A former college baseball player, Gamache had designs on a professional career before a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder ended those hopes. He fell back on a combination of his master’s degree in garment design from SUNY Oneonta and a talent inherited from his grandmother, a former art teacher, when he started to customize sneakers. Through trial and error, he got comfortable enough to charge for his designs, drumming up business through showing the finished products in barber shops around Poughkeepsie.

Gamache’s first big break came in 2008, when he convinced a security guard to hand-deliver a customized pair of sneakers to rapper Pharrell Williams, who was in New York City on tour with Kanye West. Williams loved the sneakers so much he sought out Gamache to invite him to that night’s concert and posted a picture of them on social media.

While that created a surge in business, Gamache still wasn’t ready to leave his day job. His next big break came in 2012, when James took notice of a pair of custom LeBron X Transformers-inspired sneakers Gamache had posted to social media.

James contracted Gamache to customize a pair of LeBron X Iron Man-inspired sneakers, which the artist hand-delivered before the 2013 NBA All-Star Game in Houston. After James posted a photo of the sneakers, Gamache gained nearly 20,000 followers overnight and his career path was set.

Diggs and Gamache met in 2016, when the artist was delivering a pair of cleats to Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph as part of the NFL’s first “My Cause, My Cleats” campaign, an initiative that has allowed players to raise awareness for a wide variety of charitable endeavors that are important to them. Rudolph gave Gamache a tour of the Vikings’ locker room, and that’s when he first met Diggs. A friendship soon followed.

“I'm a Vikings fan. That's how the whole relationship with Stefon started, but obviously now that he's out there, I've become a cousin of the ‘Bills Mafia,’ ” Gamache said. “I do root for him no matter what. It's funny, because my mom is a Bills fan, so she's ecstatic that Stef's out there. We just clicked ever since we first met. We did one pair and it just kind of grew over the years. Now he's in Buffalo, so there's a whole lot less purple in the cleats now.”

Diggs’ designs this season have stayed true to his city theme. When the Bills went to Nashville in Week 5, Gamache painted an image of Elvis on a pair of silver Nike cleats. When the team made its first trip to Las Vegas the previous week, a pair of red cleats featured characters from “The Hangover.”

“The process is very, very fluid. Very organic,” Gamache said. “Sometimes he'll have an idea or sometimes I'll have an idea and he'll just trust whatever I do. His music taste, I'm a 40-year-old white guy from New York who listens to Wu Tang and things like that. He listens to stuff, that I have no idea who it is.”

In Week 2, Gamache did the album artwork for rapper Action Bronson’s “Only for Dolphins” on Diggs’ cleats before the Bills’ game against Miami. Gamache joked that Diggs had no idea who Bronson was, but the red, white and blue colors worked.

“I showed Stef the artwork. He was like, ‘Yo, that's dope, what is that?’ I was like, 'You have no idea who Action Bronson, do you?'” Gamache said. “But he liked it. He's like, ‘I trust you.’ He likes what he likes. He's definitely someone who marches to his own drum, no matter what, but he definitely has a lot of trust in my own vision or ideas, because I guess I haven't steered him wrong yet.”

Diggs is on a very short list of Gamache’s weekly clients. Typically, the artist will do from three to 10 sets of cleats for players a week. Diggs and Gamache will text back and forth Sunday night or Monday morning and come up with a plan. From there, Gamache does his magic and in a day or two has a unique pair of cleats ready to ship.

The artist has developed a relationship with the Bills’ equipment staff, headed by Jeff Mazurek, making sure to meet any deadlines. If the Bills have a Sunday home game, Gamache can send the finished product Friday. If they’re on the road, it has to arrive at the team facility by Friday.

Fashion forward

Any of Diggs’ followers on social media know he has a passion for clothes and sneakers. Last year when Diggs visited New York with the Vikings, Gamache came down from his studio in Connecticut to hand-deliver the “Coming to America” cleats. While they were together in Manhattan, they went to the stylish SoHo section of the city to do some shopping.

“It is something that's important to him,” Gamache said. “He's not a party guy. He does his own thing. It's a great thing about him. I think people think, ‘young, successful guy, they're out there being crazy,’ and he's not that type. He's more of a family guy.”

Almost every one of Diggs’ posts on Instagram is either him on the field or in a fashion shoot of sorts.

“He’s big into the ‘look good, play good’ stuff,” fellow receiver Cole Beasley said. “He’s definitely going to have some kind of new gear each week – something for people to gawk at a little bit. As long as he’s making plays, we’re all good.”

“Cole be swaggin'. I be trying to tell him, ‘I've got to look how I want to look in order to feel good so I can play well,’ ” Diggs conceded. “That's what I do when I've got some free time, when I'm not all about football, I like to dive in a little bit, but I'm at work right now. We can talk about that on our own time.”

Until then, Diggs’ cleats will continue to show a side of him few in Buffalo have seen much of.

“Especially being a sport, where 95% of the time they have a helmet on their head,” Gamache said. “It's a lot tougher for NFL players to get that personality out. The NBA, it's a lot easier. They're out there for everyone to see. They can show their emotion. I think that was one of the things that got this started, not just for my custom cleats, but just in general was to get their own personality out. The NFL has certainly accepted it a lot more and kind of put their toe in the water with ‘My Cause, My Cleats.’ That was good. It can open it up more for people to express themselves. It makes the game a lot more fun, for sure.”

Gamache said that Diggs, who will celebrate his 27th birthday Sunday, is still acclimating himself to Buffalo.

“As soon as I heard he was going to Bills, I was like, 'He's going to kill it with Josh Allen,' ” Gamache said. “Stef's one of those guys, he's a competitor. He doesn't want to lose. I think sometimes people kind of misconstrue that passion for being a diva, which isn't how he is. ... It's great to see. I knew he would do well out there.”

As for what they’ve got cooked up this week, Gamache said it’s a bit of an understated selection.

“Stef's pair was simple this week,” he said. “He just asked for a real basic pair because they are wearing the throwback uniforms this week. His taste style has evolved a little bit, too. He's a little bit more low key with the cleats than he was in Minnesota. I don't know if that's being a little bit more mature or what, but I'm learning his style and taste a little more. I learn a little more about him every year.”

Kudos to Los Angeles Chargers rookie Justin Herbert who became the first rookie in league history with at least two touchdown passes in seven consecutive games in last Sunday's win against the New York Jets. In that game, Keenan Allen set a Chargers single-game record with 16 catches. And for what it’s worth, ESPN Stats & Info reports that NFL rookie quarterbacks from California teams are 1-14 straight up since the merger in the Eastern time zones. Yikes. 

With that you know how we love to fade players and teams coming off record-breaking performances, and what better week to do it against than this with the well-rested Buffalo Bills who own the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff race. The Bills are 4-1 against the spread coming off a bye week when facing AFC West opponents.

Setting the table is QB Josh Allen’s 7-2 straight up and against the spread career mark against nondivision foes coming off a win (and by win, we mean for wagering purposes), including 6-0 against the spread before the 13th game of the season.

All of which leads us directly to the clincher: The Chargers are 1-9 straight up and 0-10 against an opponent coming off a bye.

Prediction: Buffalo over LA Chargers by 14.  

Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at Playbook.com or @MarcLawrence.

Before we get to another Bills Mailbag, an apology …

A couple of weeks ago, I was asked where I think Josh Allen ranks among Bills quarterbacks in franchise history. After talking it over with Mark Gaughan and Vic Carucci, both of whom have decades of experience covering the team, I felt comfortable putting Allen in the top three with Jim Kelly and Jack Kemp.

I also mentioned Tyrod Taylor, Doug Flutie and Ryan Fitzpatrick as candidates for being in the top five. I didn’t include Joe Ferguson … and a lot of you were quick to point that out.

Ferguson played well before my time, but that’s not an excuse. He played in a different era, which explains why he threw more interceptions (190) than touchdowns (181). So did Kemp.

Ferguson belongs in the top five, and leaving him out is an oversight on my part. On to this week’s mailbag …

Joe asks: I'm a lifelong Bills fan, been going to games for over 50 years, and am a season-ticket holder for over 20 years. Please explain to me what "Bills Mafia" means. I hate that term, and I'm not even 1% Italian. It just makes no sense as a term to describe Bills fans. I have no idea what it means in that context – that we fans stick together and will eliminate any opposition? That we demand absolute loyalty? That Terry Pegula is the Godfather?

Jay: Here’s the shortened version: Ten years ago this month, Stevie Johnson infamously dropped what would have been a game-winning touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers. After the game, he tweeted at God (yes, God) and appeared to blame the creator for the drop. Not surprisingly, that tweet became a big deal. The next day, as the commotion started to die down, ESPN’s Adam Schefter retweeted Johnson’s original tweet, reigniting the firestorm. A bunch of Bills fans then jumped on Schefter, who blocked most of them on Twitter. A few weeks later, Del Reid, one of the ‘Mafia’s’ co-founders, tweeted out some people to follow using the hashtag #BillsMafia. Fast forward to training camp in 2011, and the Bills were in the running to sign linebacker Nick Barnett as a free agent. Barnett took notice of the #BillsMafia hashtag on Twitter and responded saying he liked it. From there, the phrase took off.

Reid is one of the co-founders, along with Leslie Wille (@leslieanne94 on Twitter) and Breyon Harris (@FreeBre_88).

A more complete explanation of the origins of “Bills Mafia” can be found on the group’s website, buffalofambase.com, under the “about us” section. One line in particular stands out: “What it comes down to is, this entire endeavor is about unifying Bills fans across Twitter, Facebook, and the world.”

Long embraced by fans and current and former players, the team itself finally got on board this season, filing for a trademark of the phrase after years of seemingly distancing itself from it.

“Bills Mafia is part of our family. It’s who we are,” Ron Raccuia, executive vice president of Pegula Sports and Entertainment, told The Buffalo News last month.

Some fans worried that the Bills trademarking the term might suck the fun out of what has been an organic, fan-friendly endeavor. Nothing is worse than when a corporation tries to force something on people (cough, One Buffalo, cough, cough).

Reid indicated on Twitter, however, that he did not share those concerns.

"The Buffalo Bills understand that #BillsMafia is a community of fans, not just a clever brand," he wrote. "Really looking forward to seeing what the future has in store."

Hopefully, the Bills Mafia will continue to be what it has been since the start – a rallying cry of sorts for fans who love their team, and more importantly, their community.

Grant Weber asks: Why isn't T.J. Yeldon in the lineup more often? With the Bills struggling to run the ball, Yeldon averages 3 yards more per carry than either Zack Moss or Devin Singletary. He is also bigger and more powerful for short-yardage situations. Also, when Sean McDermott wins the coin toss, he always defers to the second half. Yet we are outscored by more than a 2:1 margin this year in the third quarter. Should McDermott change his strategy?

Jay: That stat is true about Yeldon, but we should mention he had just 10 carries this season for 70 yards. Almost exactly half that total – 34 yards – came on one garbage-time carry in the dying minutes of a blowout loss to the Titans, so take that yards per carry with a grain of salt. That said, I wouldn’t be against the Bills giving Yeldon more of a shot, but I’ve been saying that for the two years he’s been here. It’s obvious by now offensive coordinator Brian Daboll feels differently. Barring injury, I don’t see Yeldon getting back in the lineup.

As for the coin toss, I wouldn’t change the strategy – both the offense and defense are underperforming in the third quarter. In that case, I would want the ball after halftime any time I could get it.

TNFP69 asks: How do you grade our first pick each from the last three years of the draft? (First player we picked no matter what round it was).

Jay: A.J. Epenesa: C. Ed Oliver: B-. Josh Allen: A. Now, the explanations. It’s really too soon to put a grade on Epenesa, so a "C" seems fair. That means average, which is the best way to describe the pick so far. Epenesa was always going to have a bit of a tough time getting on the field this year with Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy ahead of him on the depth chart. With Murphy scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after this year, there is an easy path to more playing time for Epenesa. Even with that being true, it’s been an underwhelming first 10 games for the defensive end from Iowa. Epenesa has been a healthy inactive a couple of times, and even with the expectation that playing time would be hard to come by, he’s received even less than originally thought. Unfortunately for Epenesa, he suffered a concussion against the Cardinals in Week 10. He was off to a good start in that game. It’s way, way too soon to say this is a failed pick, but Epenesa clearly will need to produce more in the seasons ahead, if not the final six weeks and playoffs of 2020.

Oliver has just one sack this season, but we can’t just box-score scout his game. McDermott is quick to point out that defensive tackle is often a thankless role in his defense. Oliver is someone defenses have to account for, but you won’t get an argument from me if you make the case that a top-10 pick should be doing more to impact the game on a weekly basis.

As for Allen, he’s made huge strides in his third season. The Bills will need success in the postseason before some are 100% comfortable in proclaiming the successor to Jim Kelly has finally been discovered, but there is no doubt Allen is the closest thing to that the team has had in the last 20-plus years. I’d still take Lamar Jackson as the top quarterback of the 2018 class – he did win the MVP last season, after all – but Allen is at worst a close No. 2 and ahead of fellow first-round picks Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.

bk asks: Has the performance of Mitch Morse declined that much that he deserves this treatment? Is McDermott just sending a message? If we cut him, how much does it save under the salary cap?

John Jarzynski asks: What’s up with Mitch Morse. Can they get out of that contract?

Jay: In my eyes, no, but I also freely admit grading offensive linemen is not easy to do. I don’t know the play call, and thus the responsibilities. There has not been anything obvious to me that would suggest Morse should have been benched. Perhaps it’s as simple as the coaching staff prefers Jon Feliciano at center. I also don’t think this is McDermott’s way of sending a message. He has always said that the best players will play. Everyone on the roster is well aware of that. If Morse were to be released after this season prior to June 1, he would count $5.5 million against the 2021 salary cap, with the team saving $4.875 million. If the Bills designated Morse as a post-June 1 cut, he’d count $2.75 million against the cap the next two seasons, with the team saving $7.625 million in 2021. Don’t rule that out given what has happened in the last couple of weeks.

Arron K. Brown asks: If Josh Allen is the team MVP thus far this season, who is second in voting?

Jay: Easy – Stefon Diggs. I wouldn’t argue against Allen as the MVP too hard, but a very strong case can be made that it’s Diggs, who is on pace to set franchise single-season records for catches and yards.

Luigi Mike Speranza asks: All the NFL teams seem to have some flaws, so I’m thinking the Bills and Steelers have the best shot to go to the Super Bowl from the AFC. Am I comatose?

Jay: You’re not comatose, but you’re sleeping on the Chiefs. The defending Super Bowl champions are still the favorites in my book. For some reason, I’m having a tough time thinking the Steelers are as good as their undefeated record would indicate. I’m very much looking forward to seeing them against the Bills in Week 14.

Gary Gruber asks: With the running game struggling, is it Devin Singletary and Zack Moss struggling or the offensive line? You would think the O-line would love to run block more than pass block.

Jay: I hate to be indecisive, but the truth is, it’s both. Far too often, Moss and Singletary have been contacted at or beyond the line of scrimmage. That’s on the offensive line for not setting up better holes to run through. At other times, though, Singletary and Moss have not been decisive in their runs. Instead of going north-south, we’ve seen both of them go east-west too often in an effort to make a bigger play instead of taking what’s available to them. Daboll shares some of the blame, too, for the design of the running plays.

Robert Goodwin asks: Ate too much stuffing on Thanksgiving. With that in mind, who was the Bills’ best run stuffer: Ted Washington, Pat Williams, Kyle Williams?

Jay: Combining Thanksgiving, power rankings and a Bills question is quite the hat trick, Robert. Bravo. If we’re talking purely run stuffer, it goes 3. Kyle Williams, 2. Pat Williams, 1. Ted Washington. All three were terrific players. One of former Bills President Tom Donahoe’s biggest mistakes was letting Pat Williams get away in free agency. In terms of their Bills career only, the ranking would be 3. Pat Williams (he flourished with the Vikings after leaving Buffalo). 2. Washington. 1. Kyle Williams.

Chris Mazella asks: Happy Thanksgiving! Which Bills player historically, or even today, could eat the most? Bonus: Favorite Thanksgiving dish. Most overrated Thanksgiving dish?

Jay: So, the biggest player in NFL history, Aaron Gibson, spent the 2006 offseason with the Bills, but didn’t make the final roster. He tipped the scales at 410 pounds! The biggest player to spend time with the Bills is Michael Jasper, who was 375 pounds when he played for the team in 2011 (spending most of the season on the practice squad). Amazingly, that was 75 pounds less than Jasper's listed college weight.

Favorite Thanksgiving dish is stuffing. Most overrated? Mashed potatoes.

Louis Stromberg asks: Jay, Happy Thanksgiving. The Bills should be well rested for the Chargers this Sunday after being off last Sunday, so please rank the following offs: "Ferris Bueller’s Day Off," "Office Space," coffee, Jared Goff, playoffs?! (Jim Mora voice). Thanks. Go Bills!

Jay: Man, some heavy hitters here. 5. Jared Goff. He’s actually pretty good, but this is a tough list. 4. Coffee. I’m good for a cup a day in the morning, but I don’t feel an addiction. 3. "Ferris Bueller’s Day Off." It’s almost sacrilege to put it here, but again, tough list. 2. "Office Space." A “stop what you’re doing and watch when it’s on” movie for me – easily one of my five favorites. 1. Playoffs – Both the Mora clip, which is a classic, and the actual thing – which, believe it or not, we’re about to experience for the third time in four years.

The Buffalo Bills bet big on Dion Dawkins this offseason.

Although it’s been just 10 games since the team gave him a contract extension that could be worth up to $60 million over the next four years, it’s so far looking like money well spent by General Manager Brandon Beane.

Dawkins has now started 50 straight games at left tackle for the Bills, solidifying one of the offense’s key positions. He’s also in his second year as a team captain, which is an honor voted on by his teammates.

“Nothing has changed from him getting that deal,” wide receiver Cole Beasley said. “He still plays as if he’s hungry to try and get another deal. He's been doing a good job for us. He's a very vocal guy when we're out there. He keeps us going in the huddle throughout the game, the highs and lows. It's good to have players like that.”

Dawkins has been a mainstay at a time of significant shuffling up front. The Bills have used five different starting lineups along the offensive line this season, even though Dawkins and right tackle Daryl Williams have started every game.

“Any time one of your brothers goes down ... it's hard,” Dawkins said. “As an offensive lineman, we have to play as one. Going through routines with the same guys, we kind of know what to expect. When somebody new comes in, it just changes that routine just a little bit. Nothing drastic, but just a little bit, and honestly in this world, just a little bit is kind of a lot. It's always hard, but it's nothing that can't be done. In this league, we know the injury rate is 100%. We deal with it as we go and handle it like pros.”

Dawkins is currently No. 15 in Pro Football Focus’ rankings of offensive tackles, with an overall grade of 79.1. As subjective as that ranking can be viewed, it’s a fair representation of how his game has grown.

Dawkins, though, doesn’t talk like a player who has “arrived.”  

“With the type of person that I am, I can always do better. If I have 99 plays correct and one play wrong, I'm hard on myself, because as an offensive lineman, you can have a million good plays and one bad play, and that's looked at as bad,” he said. “Honestly, I think in the position that I'm in ... just because you sign on that line, it doesn't just elevate you from, ‘OK, he was average to now he's this super human.' Like, no. I still have to grind all the way through it. I think that I'm still grinding through it. I'm still learning every day. I'm still learning every play. I'm still working on perfecting my craft.”

A focus on fitness in the offseason has helped Dawkins take 653 snaps and counting this year. Dawkins’ preferred cardio workout was riding a bike. He got up to a 52-mile ride.

“I never thought I could do it,” said the 6-foot-5, 320-pounder. “I honestly think it was a different part in my process in the offseason that gave me that little bit of kick for the season. It’s definitely cardio – strength, we’re all strong, we’re all pretty fast – but that cardio is literally what separates you from an elite to a great. That’s what I’m trying to adapt in every part of my game. If you can outlast somebody, then you’re going to be dominant in the fourth quarter.”

Dawkins has showed that athleticism in the past, making a touchdown catch in each of the past two seasons.

“He’s a little guy in a big guy’s body,” Beasley said. “I think his calves are the size of my waist. Dude is a freak athlete.”

Dawkins will need to continue to be sharp over the closing six weeks, starting Sunday when the Los Angeles Chargers come to town. The Chargers’ Joey Bosa is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Even if Bosa lines up against the Bills’ right tackle, which he does more often than not, Dawkins will still have go up against Melvin Ingram, who has had at least seven sacks in each of the past five seasons.

In Week 14, Dawkins will have to deal with either T.J. Watt or Bud Dupree, both of whom are having excellent seasons for the Steelers. The ability to match up with those premier pass rushers is why the Bills made Dawkins a key part of their future.

“It’s never perfect, but there’s certain things you can just see in an athlete and as a player that you’re doing differently and that you’re doing at a higher level,” he said. “It’s a lot of mental stuff that comes with it, as far as looking at defenses and knowing what they’re going to do before they do it. But overall, hey, I’m not really the judge I guess. That’s what everyone else does. I’m just me. I’m going to go out there, I’m going to play hard, I’m going to mess up, I’m going to do things right. I’m going to run around and support my teammates. I’m going to keep focusing on me and my team and I’ll be alright.”

…

The Bills now know when they’ll be playing in Week 15. The NFL announced Tuesday that the Broncos will host the Bills at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 19. It will be the second straight season the Bills have played on a Saturday, following a Week 16 game last year at New England.

Of Buffalo’s remaining six games, just two of them have customary 1 p.m. Sunday starts – this week at home against the Chargers and the Week 17 season finale at Bills Stadium against Miami. In between, the Bills play on Monday Night Football twice (in Week 13 at San Francisco and Week 16 at New England) on Sunday Night Football (in Week 14 at home against Pittsburgh) and on Saturday against the Broncos.

…

The Bills practiced Tuesday coming off their bye week, but the team is not required to submit an official injury report until Wednesday.

Unofficially, wide receiver John Brown and tight end Dawson Knox were not seen participating during individual positional drills. Defensive end A.J. Epenesa, who suffered a concussion in the Week 10 loss to the Cardinals, was in a red, non-contact jersey.

The Bills will practice Wednesday and Friday this week, taking Thanksgiving Day off.

Shawne Merriman makes no attempt to hide the fact his loyalties are with the team for which he spent the first five and a half of his eight seasons as an NFL linebacker.

“My heart's always going to be with the Chargers,” he told The Buffalo News this week by phone from Los Angeles. “I'm a Charger until the day I die.”

It makes sense, given that San Diego was where Merriman began his career in 2005 as a first-round draft pick from Maryland and that he enjoyed all his success in the league with the Chargers until they waived their three-time Pro Bowler midway through the 2012 season.

But Merriman also feels a strong attachment with the Buffalo Bills, who face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday at Bills Stadium. Despite having been with them for only two-and-a-half losing and mostly injury-filled years, he has fond memories.

“Playing in Buffalo was a privilege, because you don't get a chance to see a fan base like that,” Merriman said. “And I got a chance to experience another organization, another locker room. It was very family-oriented out there, man. I loved that.”

Of course, he will be happy to see the Chargers win, but he said the football fan in him would be equally happy “to see a competitive football game with guys just getting after each other, period. And as long as that's happening, you're like, ‘Man, I'm satisfied this day.’ ”

In the latest edition of One-on-One Coverage, The News spoke with Merriman about his time with the Bills and Chargers, his thoughts on the current editions of the teams, his diverse sporting interests that also include mixed martial arts and auto racing, and how he intertwines the three sports he follows closely on his “Lights Out” podcast on Fox Sports Radio.

Buffalo News: Your time with the Bills was an up-and-down experience, to say the least, beginning with the season-ending Achilles injury you suffered in your first practice.

Shawne Merriman: I had a partial tear my Achilles in 2009. It started to tear a little bit, then a little bit more. By the time I got waived by the Chargers, I had a 30% or 40% tear in my Achilles, which the (Bills) knew about. I said, "Man, I've been playing on it, but it's not right, I'm not me. And the thing is going to tear at some point."

I was kind of running around like a pirate for a year. No one got a chance to really know about it because I just crossed it out. It was painful and some days, in the mornings, I couldn't walk, and I had to get a warm shower just to walk straight because my Achilles was so inflamed when I got up.

I want to compare this to what's going on right now like with Klay Thompson (of the Golden State Warriors). You see he had the knee injury, then he came back and what's first thing he tears? He tears his Achilles. That was what happened with me. I got to a point where I was overcompensating. I was trying to come back from a knee injury (he had suffered with the Chargers) so much, I was putting so much pressure on my other leg.

Coming to the Bills, I just had so many big aspirations because I knew that, if you play well in Buffalo, one thing that's going to happen is the fans are going to love you. And I went out there and, literally, one of the first practices, I suffered an extra little tear, and that was pretty much it. Honestly, I wish there was something I could have done to have the surgery earlier. Nobody would fix it. They almost, in a sense, wanted it to completely tear before they did anything.

BN: In January of the next year, the Bills gave you a contract extension. But the Achilles never fully cooperated, you landed back on the injured-reserve list in 2011 and then you were waived in training camp in 2012.

SM: I got pretty much healthy, but an Achilles injury, you don't get back healthy for nine to 12 months to be 100%. You see Kevin Durant and all these guys that tear their Achilles, they're gone for four years before they try to put them back out there. So, right at that nine-month mark, I started to feel good, but I wasn’t myself. I came to camp, and my Achilles would swell up and my knee would swell up after a week and a half of practice. I knew that (the release) kind of was coming because they had Kyle Moore and they were paying him a lot less. I knew they might actually have to make a move because of what I was getting paid that year and I just wasn't back to myself.

It was tough for me because I knew I was coming right around the corner (to full recovery). I was able to at least practice every single day and make it through practice with no complaints and no big problems. But I was probably a little bit more torn up leaving Buffalo than I was the Chargers because when I talked to Chan Gailey, Chan was literally in tears when he when he told me. I was, too. I was just like, “Man, I'm just starting to kind of get over that hump. I need like another month before I really feel confident in pushing off of this thing and turning it and twisting and bursting without it being the mental part of it. I was getting there.”

BN: And the Bills would give you yet another chance when they re-signed you in mid-October of 2012.

SM: When they let me go, I went down to Miami and I was training with Pete Bommarito. I was determined to get this thing at least back to where I could go out and play without any problems. I spent a month or so, working out with Pete, and I finally felt close enough to myself again. And that's when I got the call from the Bills to come back. I was so thankful, man, to get that call because I knew that I was close enough to being bad where I could make some noise again.

BN: When you retired after that 2012 season, was there a greater sense of closure, just because you were able to get an opportunity to finish out feeling healthier than when you got to Buffalo?

SM: Actually, there were a couple things that gave me closure. If you go back and watch the very last game I had there, against the Jets, it was probably my best game I had there, period, where I had an all-around complete game. I was explosive, getting after the quarterback. I think it had six or seven tackles. I started to feel like myself again a little bit.

Doug (Whaley), the GM, came in and he said, "Man, that was awesome. We want you to come back." And at the time I told him that I was thinking about coming back and I wanted to, but I had to really think about what I wanted to do. My dad, who I wasn't close with for almost 20 years I didn't see, came to our game against Jacksonville. I went through a period where I didn't talk to my dad from maybe age 10 until I retired. That gave me closure, too.

The Bills had gotten rid of the coaching staff, which was another big thing. I was like, "Man, I just got back on the field, I started feeling like myself again and then you have another coaching staff coming in that was probably going to want me to do something else." So, at that point, I was done. I was kind of at peace with my decision. I was ready to move on to other things.

BN: How much fun are you having with the podcast?

SM: The thing about the podcast and why I love it is because I've been fortunate being in so many different fields. Obviously, playing in the NFL, having a college career in Maryland, but also over the last 12 years, I've probably been at 20 different NASCAR tracks, maybe more if you include the short tracks. I've also been training MMA for the past 14 years. So, I get a chance to bridge all this together on the podcast and bring in different guests. I've had Joey Logano. I've had Chase Elliott after he just won the (2020 NASCAR Cup Series) championship. I just had Tyron Woodley, who's a multiple champ with the UFC.

BN: How did your involvement with MMA come about?

SM: Through Jay Glazer of Fox Sports. I grew up boxing. I have family members who were professional boxers growing up. So, on the East Coast, where I grew up, in Maryland and D.C., boxing was huge. But MMA wasn't. So, Jay convinced me that MMA would help me with football. I said, "OK, cool. If it's going to help with my hand-eye coordination and explosion and being able to open hips and my endurance and stuff. I'll try anything to be a better football player.”

And it did. My first day coming into the gym with Jay Glazer, Randy Couture was there, along with Tyron Woodley. I also trained with a couple of football players, Richie Incognito and Clay Matthews. I just really fell in love with the sport. I started to get really good at the boxing. I started learning jiu jitsu after I retired. I love combat sports.

BN: How helpful was that training while you were playing?

SM: You're going against some monsters out there, so you have to be able to use your strength and leverage in being able to bend the corner. I would advise a lot of defensive players – cornerbacks, defensive tackles, outside linebackers – and offensive linemen to really pick up some type of combat sport. Not to spar or fight; you don't want to get anybody hurt. But to pick up the hand speed and the hand-eye coordination, the hand placement, all those things that are so important.

BN: And now you have your own MMA venture, Lights Out Xtreme Fighting.

SM: Yes, and that takes up most of my time. We're on hiatus right now because of the pandemic. We'll be starting up at some point. We got picked up by Fox Sports regional television networks back in May. We're really excited about that.

BN: How did you get involved with auto racing?

SM: In 2008, I went out to be the grand marshal for the Spring Cup series in Fontana, Calif. I had been watching NASCAR on TV growing up. I knew about Dale Earnhardt, some of the bigger guys, but I didn't know about the sport. I just watched it on TV. I had no idea about the excitement and adrenaline rush that was there at the track. I got to the track in 2008, and I've never left the sport since. Jimmie Johnson invited me down to his pit and Richard Petty's group had me out to the Richard Petty Driving Experience (which, for a fee, allows adults to drive or ride in a NASCAR race car at one of many speedways throughout the country). And after that point, I just stuck around the sport.

In 2017, I actually teamed up with Jesse Iwuji, who's one of two African Americans in the sport, and I became a car owner and the team owner of his on the Can-Am Series. For two years, I spent a lot of time at tracks, sometimes until midnight in drivers' meetings and owners' meetings. I love the sport.

BN: What are your biggest takeaways from your Charger years?

SM: We had a confidence about us that we wanted to dominate. That was our attitude. That was what we preached. And I can tell you that, sometimes the competition in practice was a little bit harder than the game, because we really, really got after each other. The cat's out the bag about Philip Rivers and how much he talks. Not even in a bad way. People around the NFL love to talk with him and get in these back-and-forth, sparring matches with him because he's just that type of player, he's fun.

You could imagine, every day in practice, it was a completely competitive practice. Sometimes, depending on who we were playing, it was more competitive than the games because we didn't want the offense or defense to win. Especially when Marty Schottenheimer was the coach. He was more of a defensive-minded coach and the defense that we had would beat the offense every day. And then Norv Turner came and there was more of an offensive mindset. So, the offense had to win every day and we just weren't going to let that happen. It was fun, man.

BN: What do you make of this current Bills team?

SM: Let's take it back to when I went there. They were 0-7. You always look at those teams like, "Man, these guys (stink), these guys are terrible." And then I get in that locker room and I meet Fred Jackson and Kyle Williams and all these other guys. And I was like, "How in the heck could you be 0-and-anything? I mean, it doesn't make any sense."

So, you always had a feeling, with the teams they had the '90s and some of the teams they had there with (Takeo) Spikes and some of the other guys, they had good teams there. And you almost had a feeling at that time that, sooner or later, it was coming. Then, they got a Josh Allen and you knew, as soon as they got Stefon Diggs, that they were going to be able to turn it around. And it's happening. So, when everybody's shocked and making noise about Buffalo around the country, I'm like, "If you looked at it, they've been on the brink for years."

You can't help but think that this game Sunday is just going to be a great game. Obviously, I support the Chargers. I still talk great things about the Bills, too. I can't bag on my boys out there. But at that point, you want to see a great football game, because I'm a fan of the game in general.

BN: What are your thoughts on the season Justin Herbert, the Chargers' rookie quarterback, is having?

SM: What they're doing with him and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Hunter Henry, they have some pieces there that, no matter what their record is, they're going to keep everybody in tune. Their record is not displaying what they could be. I mean, they lost three or four games within six points. Unfortunately, they’ve got to look back after the season and say, "Man, we really blew this one up because we had something there. We just didn't finish some football games."

And when you look at this week coming up, it's like, man, you're looking at Josh Allen and you're looking at Justin Herbert. You're looking at what the NFL is going to be for the next five or 10 years.

Just when it looked as if the Buffalo Bills were about to get some continuity back on their offensive line, more disruption struck.

On Friday, while announcing that Mitch Morse would return as the starter at center for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Chargers, coach Sean McDermott also revealed that left guard Cody Ford would miss the rest of the season with a knee injury he suffered in practice Wednesday.

Ford tore a meniscus and is expected to need surgery, according to a report from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. 

"Thank you #BillsMafia for the love and support," Ford tweeted Friday afternoon. "I'll be back and better in no time. Excited to watch the team continue great things this season."

Ford has had a difficult stretch of injuries, including offseason shoulder surgery, and then knee and ankle issues this season. He was listed as limited in practice this week with an ankle injury. Ford most recently played against the Seahawks, leaving the game early with the ankle injury.

"You miss a guy that's very athletic," running back Zack Moss told reporters. "He knows the offense pretty well, being in his second year, and knows how to work with those guys down there as well. He's a big blow to have gone the rest of the season ... We've just got to go out there and continue to battle (with a) next-man-up mentality."

McDermott has stressed continuity on the offensive line, but this season has been anything but, with a series of injuries and adjustments. 

“Yes, that’s frustrating, but it happens sometimes and it just so happens it’s with our offensive line this year,” he said. “But I appreciate the resiliency of the group and the way they’re approaching this.”

McDermott said Brown, who has dealt with knee and ankle injuries this season, did not suffer a setback. However, the coach was not specific on when he expected the receiver to be able to return to action.

"I'm going day-to-day and week-to-week with him," McDermott said, adding he would have an update next week.

No other player is listed on the Bills' game status report for Sunday. Other than Brown and Ford, tight end Lee Smith was the only other player not to practice Friday. He was listed with an illness.

The pendulum in the Buffalo Bills’ backfield has started to swing toward rookie Zack Moss.

It will be interesting to see if that trend continues this week as the Bills try to get more production from their running game against the Los Angeles Chargers.

The past three games, Moss has played 54% of the snaps and Devin Singletary has played 47%.

They both had 14 carries in the ground-and-pound win over New England. In the two games since, Moss has had 16 carries for 38 yards and Singletary has had just six for 16 yards.

The push is on to do better, because the Bills currently rank 27th in rushing and – more importantly – 25th in yards per rush.

“I feel like the bye week helped clear up some things,” Singletary said after Tuesday’s practice. “Let us reset. The run game is a big emphasis on getting it going. We’ve been working on it since Week 1. Of course, it hasn’t been going the way we’ve wanted it to, but we’re still working towards it.

“They put an extra period in for the run game. We’re going to see if it works.”

Moss runs through tackles better than Singletary. Singletary is shiftier than Moss. When the blocking is less than ideal, Moss seems to be doing a better job of running through defenders and grinding out some extra yards.

Both backs have been excellent in blitz-pickup protection.

The ideal solution is to run more effectively, regardless of which back is carrying the ball. Singletary averaged 5.1 yards per carry last year. There should be a way to get him going.

However, there is less variety in the Bills’ run game this year, due to the fact they run out of three- and four-receiver sets on 93% of their plays, according to Buffalo News charting. The Bills haven’t shown any desire to power up with two tight ends and try to run from tighter formations.

That might not change.

The offensive identity under coordinator Brian Daboll is clear: The Bills are a passing team, relying on their most talented players – quarterback Josh Allen and the corps of wide receivers. They called 32 passes and two runs in the first half of the Seattle game, and it worked. They scored on their first four possessions of the game.

“It’s a week-by-week league,” Moss said in a recent interview. “Sometimes it’s going to be run heavy, one week it’s going to be pass heavy, that was evident against Seattle. It’s all about being unselfish and doing what the team asks you to do. I think me and Motor do a good job of that, just being ready to catch passes out of the backfield and picking up the blitz.

“We have a lot of people who can do a lot of good things on this side of the ball. You really can’t guard one guy. This offense is very versatile. I think we’ve shown that.”

The Chargers rank 15th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.

Everyone agrees that having a productive running game – even if it’s mostly a complement to the pass game – is beneficial when the weather gets colder and windier.

“We want to get this run game going,” Singletary said. “Take away the pre-snap penalties. That’s pretty much been the message when we came back. Take it one week at a time.”

New England invited the Bills to run the ball, and the Bills rushed for 190 yards and 5.0 yards a carry.

Singletary acknowledged that it is helpful for running backs to get into a rhythm during a game with repeated carries.

“Kind of, you could say that,” he said. “Playing running back is kind of getting in a rhythm. But at the end of the day, when it’s called, we’ve still got to execute it. We’ll see how it plays out on the back end of this season. It does help when you get in a rhythm.”

Moss on what he has learned about running in the NFL: “I think it’s all about you have to be patient at the end of the day as a back and try to set up blocks. These guys do a really good job of re-directing, getting off blocks. If they get chopped down, they get backup very fast. ... With that being said, you definitely have a mindset of being north and south. You’re never trying to dance and things like that as a back.”

Singletary is eager for the offense become even more dynamic.

“Six weeks left,” he said. “We’ve got a chance to do something special, so we’re definitely hungry and you can feel it around the building.”

"Autumn in New York. Why does it seem so inviting?"

That's how the lyrics go of a Vernon Duke song for a 1934 Broadway musical.

In the fall of 2020, it's certainly not the football.

However, it gets a little interesting around Gotham on Sunday, because the slowly improving Giants have a chance to grab a share of the lead in the NFC East. All they have to do is win a road game at a limping Bengals team in Cincinnati to move into a tie with the Washington Football Team at 4-7. Of course, Philadelphia (3-6-1) can move back on top by winning at home against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday.

Even New York's other team, the winless Jets, gets a small bit of the spotlight with a home game against the surprising Miami Dolphins. The game is somewhat important because Miami stands only a game behind the Bills in the AFC East and is in the middle of the scramble for one of the AFC wild-card playoff berths.

The Jets' winless record has them in the lead to gain the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft with a shot at Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence or, if they choose, perhaps pull off a trade to accumulate draft capital that could shorten the time until they become playoff contenders again.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' quest for their 11th consecutive victory against Baltimore has been moved to Tuesday, barring results of Covid-19 testing. That showdown was postponed from Thanksgiving Night to Sunday afternoon and then to Tuesday night because of a coronavirus outbreak that has hit the Ravens, including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The change also means the Ravens-Cowboys game will move from Dec. 3 to Dec. 7. 

Divisional clashes between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers in the NFC North and the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West are other important games on the slate.

Most attractive, though, will be Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs going against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa.

A capsule look at the Week 12 games:

Game of the day

Chiefs (9-1) at Buccaneers (7-4)

Kickoff: CBS, 4:25 p.m.

The line: Chiefs (-3 1/2).

Record ATS: Chiefs 6-4, Bucs 5-5-1.

Over/under: 55 1/2.

Times O/U: Chiefs 6/4, Bucs 6/5.

The scoop: The last time Mahomes and Brady, then a Patriot, hooked up, the Chiefs won 23-16 in Foxborough. Mahomes passed for one touchdown to put the Chiefs in the lead and Brady passed for only 169 yards and one score. Nothing like the 43-40 and 37-31 shootouts won by Brady and the Pats the season before. Kansas City has won five straight since its loss to the Raiders, avenging that setback last week. Brady and the Bucs are coming off a Monday night loss at home against the Rams. The longest gain on a Brady completion against LA was only 18 yards, a statistic that some view as another sign that the 43-year-old quarterback is finally slowing down. The Bucs might have to settle for an NFC wild card because they have fallen two games behind New Orleans in the NFC South and were swept by the Saints.

Outlook: The Chiefs are in command in AFC West but still have an eye on No. 1 seed and the first round playoff bye in AFC. Kansas City, 34-31.

Top attractions

Chargers (3-7) at Bills (7-3)

Kickoff: CBS, 1 p.m.

The line: Bills (-5 1/2).

Record ATS: Chargers 3-5-1, Bills 4-5-1.

Over/under: 53 1/2.

Times O/U: Chargers 7/3, Bills 8-2.

The scoop: While the Bills went through their bye week, stunned by the loss of a game they thought they had won in Arizona, they were helped when the Dolphins and Patriots lost. Now Buffalo has to get back on track and help themselves against a Chargers team that has been snakebit all season. The Bolts' three wins have been against the Bengals, Jaguars and Jets, who have three wins among them. However, LA has been outscored by only 13 points overall, despite the record.

Outlook: The Chargers with rookie QB Justin Herbert are dangerous and make the Bills work for victory. Bills, 24-20.

Titans (7-3) at Colts (7-3)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Colts (-3 1/2).

Record ATS: Titans 4-6, Colts 6-4.

Over/under: 51.

Times O/U: Titans 6/4, Colts 5/5.

The scoop: Just two weeks ago, Indianapolis defeated the Titans in Nashville, 34-17. A blocked punt for a touchdown and a missed field goal leading to another helped the Colts to a 21-0 second-half rally. The Colts are second in league in total defense (298.1 yards per game allowed), but the Titans come at you with a balanced attack with Derrick Henry, the NFL rushing leader (1,079 yards), and Ryan Tannehill's passing (22 TDS, 4 INTS).

Outlook: The Colts showed their mettle last week, coming back from 28-14 for an overtime win over the Packers. The Titans won the last time they visited Lucas Oil Stadium, but not this time. Indy, 30-24.

Ravens (6-4) at Steelers (10-0)

TV: NBC, Tuesday, 8 p.m.

The line: Steelers (5 1/2).

Record ATS: Ravens 4-5-1, Steelers 8-2.

Over/under: 44 1/2.

Times O/U: Ravens 4/6, Steelers 3/7.

The scoop: Already off to the best start in franchise history, the Steelers will be looking to become the 12th team in NFL history to go 11-0. It would be the best NFL start since the Panthers went 14-0 in 2015. The closest calls for Pittsburgh were on successive weeks, a 27-24 win at the Titans and 28-24 at the Ravens. In the victory in Baltimore, the Steelers were mauled on the ground for 265 yards and a 5.6 average, and the Ravens did not have Mark Ingram. Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins tested positive for Covid-19 this week and will not play. That leaves it up to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill to carry the ball. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (foot) is an injury question for Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are deep at the position with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and James Washington. Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest points (17.4) and leads the league with 38 sacks and 21 takeaways. Only 5,500 spectators will be allowed in Heinz Field for the game.

Outlook: Odds will catch up to the Steelers eventually, but Ravens have to be questioning themselves after three losses in the last four games and now being short-handed because of Covid-19. Can't see Ravens overcoming all the negatives. Steelers, 27-16.

Dolphins (6-4) at Jets (0-10)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Dolphins (-7).

Record ATS: Dolphins 7-3, Jets 2-8.

Over/under: 44 1/2.

Times O/U: Dolphins 4/4/2, Jets 5/5.

The scoop: Miami's five-game win streak ended in Denver last Sunday. The Dolphins turned in a dull performance when they had an opportunity to move into a tie in the AFC East standings while Buffalo was on a bye. The opportunity might not come up again. The last win for the Jets was in the season finale against Buffalo last season, 13-6, in a game that did not matter for the Bills, who already had locked up their playoff position. Despite their shortage of talent and the negativity surrounding a winless team in New York, the Jets have been competitive lately, except in a loss at Kansas City. Their last three losses have been by eight, three and six points. The first time around, they were shut out by the Dolphins 24-0 in South Florida. ... Joe Flacco has started at QB for the Jets in the last two games, but Sam Darnold is expected to return. ... Rookie Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins was replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the second half of the Denver loss last week, and is questionable with a thumb injury. 

Outlook: The Jets are getting competitive, but they'll take another tough loss. Dolphins, 24-20.

Cardinals (6-4) at Patriots (4-6)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Cardinals (-2 1/2).

Record ATS: Cards 5-4-1, Pats 4-6.

Over/under: 49 1/2.

Times O/U: Cards 4/6, Pats 4-6.

The scoop: Playing catchup, Cam Newton was unable to close the deal down the stretch in the Patriots' loss at Houston. It was a game New England really needed to win to realistically remain in the playoff hunt. Still, Newton turned in a strong passing performance, 25 of 40 for 365 yards. New England received more bad news with the loss for the season of RB Rex Burkhead. Running back, however, is where the Patriots have some depth. After the "Hail, Murray" win over the Bills, the Cards lost a tough one in their division at Seattle four days later.

Outlook: The Patriots are a rare home underdog. What makes this interesting is what strategy Bill Belichick devises to deal with Arizona QB Kyler Murray. The guess is he will come up with something that produces a close New England win. Patriots, 27-25. 

Seahawks (7-3) at Eagles (3-6-1)

TV: ESPN, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

The line: Seahawks (-5 1/2).

Record ATS: Seahawks 6-4, Eagles 3-7.

Over/under: 50 1/2.

Times O/U: Seahawks 6/3/1, Eagles 5/4/1.

The scoop: A team that seems to travel well, the Seahawks had won 10 consecutive games in the Eastern Time Zone since 2018 before losing to the Bills three weeks ago. They have one cross-country roadie, at Washington, remaining, unless they have to travel east for a playoff game. ... Russell Wilson got back to form after rough outings against the Bills and Rams, and passed for two scores in the win over Arizona. Seattle gets RBs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. ... The season has been a struggle for the Eagles, mainly because of Carson Wentz's up-and-down performance at quarterback. He has 14 TD passes and 14 INTs with Philadelphia playing from behind much of the season. The Eagles have the Packers (away), Saints (home) and Arizona (away) after this one, before closing with two division games.

Outlook: If ever a team is due for a strong performance, it's Philadelphia. At home, Philly can win outright. Eagles, 31-28.

Best of the rest

Raiders (6-4) at Falcons (3-7)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Raiders (-3).

Record ATS: Raiders 7-3, Falcons 4-6.

Over/under: 53 1/2.

Times O/U: Raiders 8/2, Falcons 5/5.

The scoop: Vegas turned in another strong performance against the Chiefs at home last Sunday night. The problem was, they left too much time for Patrick Mahomes to wipe out their late lead. Derek Carr's outstanding season for the Raiders (19 TD passes, only 3 INTS) is being overshadowed by the play of Mahomes, Murray, Josh Allen and others. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs has run for 755 yards and nine touchdowns. ... The Falcons laid an egg in New Orleans, where they usually play well. Matt Ryan, who was ineffective against a heavy Saints pass rush last week, needs just 22 passing yards to exceed 3,000 yards for the 11th consecutive season. The Falcons will be without Todd Gurley, who has nine rushing touchdowns, but only 210 yards total and a pedestrian 3.7 average.

Outlook: Unless they are deflated by the loss to the Chiefs in a game they easily could have won, the Raiders have too much firepower for an Atlanta defense that is giving up 406.8 yards per game. Raiders, 34-27.

Browns (7-3) at Jaguars (1-9)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Browns (-6 1/2).

Record ATS: Browns 5-4-1, Jags 4-6.

Over/under: 49.

Times O/U: Browns 5/5, Jags 5/4/1.

The scoop: After three straight weeks of dealing with the wind, rain and chill at home, the Browns should be happy to get away to the South. Also, the sight of the Jaguars, who have not won since Week 1, should be welcome. Cleveland's Baker Mayfield has not thrown an interception in his last three games as the Browns have turned to a devastating ground attack with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They've averaged 156.3 yards on the ground in the last three games. The Jaguars' defense isn't as bad as stats (411.3 yards allowed per game) would indicate, but a weak offense keeps them on the field too much.

Outlook: With run game and defense coming on, the Browns should smother Jags with Mike Glennon – whose last start was in 2017 – running the attack. Browns, 27-13.

Panthers (4-7) at Vikings (4-6)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Vikings (-4).

Record ATS: Panthers 6-5, Vikings 5-5.

Over/under: 48 1/2.

Times O/U: Panthers 6/5, Vikings 6/4.

The scoop: After five straight losses, Carolina broke the spell by shutting out the undermanned Lions, 20-0, with P.J. Walker at QB in place of the injured Teddy Bridgewater. The Panthers expect Bridgewater to play against his former team and may get RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) back, too. McCaffrey is listed as questionable, and the Panthers are pessimistic that he will play. The Vikings were coming on until a three-point loss at the Cowboys last week. ... Dalvin Cook is averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt for the Vikings, with a league-best 13 rushing touchdowns. He has had more than 100 scrimmage yards six times this season. Besides the reliable Adam Thielen, the Vikings are getting good play from rookie WR Justin Jefferson.

Outlook: The Vikings are 1-4 at home. They're due to win one at U.S. Bank. Vikings, 27-26.

Saints (8-2) at Broncos (4-6)

Kickoff: Fox, 4:05 p.m.

The line: Saints (-6).

Record ATS: Saints 5-5, Broncos 5-5.

Over/under: 43 1/2.

Times O/U: Saints 6/3/1, Broncos 5/5.

The scoop: Without Drew Brees, the Saints pretty much dominated the Falcons in a home game last week with Taysom Hill starting at quarterback. Hill threw no TD passes, but was a central figure in a 24-9 win, completing 78.3%, and rushing for 51 yards and two touchdowns. He kept the offense on the field by completing nine passes to Michael Thomas, four to Emmanuel Sanders and not turning the ball over. The Broncos have won their last two games at home after dropping three in a row. The Bills are the Broncos' next home opponent after this.

Outlook: The Broncos have held The Chiefs (286) and Dolphins (223) to fewer than 300 yards in two of their last three home games. They will give Saints trouble, but lose. Saints, 27-24.

49ers (4-6) at Rams (7-3)

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m.

The line: Rams (-7).

Record ATS: 49ers 4-6, Rams 6-4.

Over/under: 45 1/2.

Times O/U: 49ers 4/4/2, Rams 4/6.

The scoop: The Rams' passing game looked unstoppable in a Monday night win at Tampa Bay, with Jared Goff passing for three touchdowns and ex-Bill Robert Woods (12 receptions) and Cooper Kupp (11) riddling the Bucs' defense. The Niners are still feeling the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo, even though they are getting some of their wounded back. San Francisco is coming off its bye week, which should help the injury situation.

Outlook: The Rams looked at their best in the Monday Night win at Tampa Bay and have won all four of their home games at the new Sofi Stadium in Inglewood. However, the 49ers have won their last three against the Rams, including a 24-16 win in Santa Clara on Oct. 20. Rams, 30-27.

Bears (5-5) at Packers (7-3)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

The line: Packers (-8 1/2).

Record ATS: Bears 5-5, Packers 6-4.

Over/under: 45.

Times O/U: Bears 3/7, Packers 4/5/1.

The scoop: It's the 201st meeting of these old rivals. The Packers have dominated lately – with seven wins in the last eight games – and lead the overall series 99-95-6, counting two postseason games (1-1). Green Bay was stung by a 34-31 loss at the Colts, with the winning field goal set up by a lost fumble after a pass reception in overtime. Aaron Rodgers has 29 TD passes for the Packers and can become fifth in NFL history with seven or more seasons with 30. Chicago had a bye last week after a 19-13 loss at Minnesota Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) is set to return after missing two games, with Nick Foles listed as doubtful with injuries to his hip and backside after rough treatment by the Vikings. 

Outlook: The Bears have lost their last four, averaging only 15.7 points against the Rams, Saints, Titans and Vikings. Green Bay extends its two-game lead in the division. Packers, 24-14.

Dog of the day

Giants (3-7) at Bengals (2-7-1)

Kickoff: 1 p.m.

The line: Giants (-5 1/2).

Record ATS: Giants 7-3, Bengals 5-4-1.

Over/under: 42 1/2.

Times O/U: Giants 3-6-1, Bengals 5/5.

The scoop: The Giants have won their last two over division rivals, Washington and the Eagles. They can move into a share of the NFC East lead with a win. New York looks improved each week under Joe Judge, but the schedule gets tougher from here with the Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns and Ravens in the next four weeks. Even losing, the Bengals were fun to watch with rookie Joe Burrow at quarterback. Now, he's out until 2021. Ryan Finley was expected to make his first start of the season, but Brandon Allen was called up from the practice squad and looks like the starter, according to some reports. Allen played at Arkansas and has seen roster time with the Jaguars, Rams and Broncos, but his only playing time came in three starts with Denver last season.

Outlook: Two of the Giants' wins have come on the road and one of the losses was by two at Buccaneers. Giants, 24-10.

Last week: Favorites were 8-6, 6-8 against the spread; 6 games went over the number, 8 were under.

Thursday: Favorites were 1-1, 1-1 ATS. Both games went over the number.

Last week's results: 6-7 outright, 4-9 ATS, over/under predictions 8-5.

Thursday's results: 1-1 outright, 1-1 ATS, over/under predictions 1-1.

Season's record (including Thursday's games): 98-53-1 outright, 65-85-2 ATS, 85-65-2 over/under predictions.