It’s newsworthy now when a national pundit doesn’t pick the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East.
Is there a better way to describe just how far the franchise has come entering the fourth year of the “McBeane” era?
Under General Manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott, expectations have risen to levels not seen in Buffalo since the 1990s. In fact, the last time the Bills won the AFC East was 1995. They are the popular pick among most national analysts to finally do so again in 2020.
“I think, at the end of the day, we have to stick with what we do,” General Manager Brandon Beane said of the heightened expectations. “There’s been some earlier years here where we were predicted to win six, seven, eight games – whatever it is – and not be a playoff team. Now we’re by some picked to win the division or get in the playoffs.
“Our message has always been: Those are predictions from the outside. We control what we do here. Until we win the AFC East, it’s hard to go on the road and win three playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The best route, if you look back in the '90s, those Bills teams were winning and hosting. Nobody wants to play here in January. We know that. We know it can be a big-time advantage not only with our fans, but the weather. We know that we control the in house and we will have to be ready. We’re not going to sneak up on anyone. People are mentioning us as a team that will be in the playoffs or win the division. How do we fare as the hunted versus the hunter? Time will tell.”
When Peter King of NBC Sports picked the Dolphins to win the division in his popular “Football Morning in America” column that published Monday, it caught the attention of some Bills fans on social media.
Of course, any perceived slight of their team is usually noticed by Bills fans. It wouldn’t be Buffalo without a bit of an inferiority complex.
It’s understandable why Bills fans may feel a bit slighted by King’s pick, though. The team returns most of its key contributors from a squad that went 10-6 last year and should have advanced to the divisional round of the postseason were it not for a meltdown in Houston.
Compare that to what has happened around the AFC East, and the Bills appear to be on solid ground. The Dolphins are going through a rebuild similar to what the Bills started two years ago. The Jets’ leadership under coach Adam Gase is shaky at best. The Patriots, meanwhile, won’t have Tom Brady as their starter at quarterback for the first time in almost two decades.
"Hopefully, we're still trending up,” Beane said. “We haven't won the division and to me, that's the goal we have to do because we need to host playoff games here in Orchard Park and the only way we get a chance to do that is if we win the division. We haven't been able to take down the Patriots yet – nobody has since we've been here. That's still the team we're chasing. We don't play them until the middle of the season, but I'm sure the Jets and the Dolphins are thinking the same thing. That's our goal, that's our focus. We've got to try to compete and win the AFC East."
Here's a capsule preview of the Bills' 2020 season:
Top strengths
Offensive weapons: On paper, the Bills may have the best three-receiver set in the NFL. That’s how much the addition of Stefon Diggs can help not just quarterback Josh Allen, but receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley. That’s a pick-your-poison situation for any defense when it comes to figuring out how to cover all three. Emerging second-year players Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary figure to play big roles in the offense at tight end and running back, respectively. “I would say I’m a lot more confident – and I was confident last year,” Singletary said.
The new No. 1 receiving weapon in the Bills’ offense should give Brian Daboll the ability to dictate matchup advantages all across the field. Read Mark Gaughan's analysis on various ways Diggs should help the Bills’ scheme.
The secondary: In the last two years under McDermott, the Bills have ranked first and fourth, respectively, in passing yards allowed. With All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White recently signed to a contract extension, the safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde back and the addition of Josh Norman to compete with Levi Wallace at the other cornerback spot (along with nickel cornerback Taron Johnson), the Bills should again limit big plays through the air. Last year, the team gave up the fewest number of 40-plus-yard passing plays – just four – and tied for the fewest number of 20-plus-yard plays (34).
Continuity: Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll made a good point this summer when he said continuity doesn’t mean much if coaches and players don’t, you know, do their jobs. Especially this season, though, with the lack of spring practices and no preseason games, it has to be looked at as an advantage that the Bills return 88% of their snaps from a season ago. According to ESPN, that’s the most in the league. Players and coaches know the system inside and out. Now, to Daboll’s point, they need to go out and execute it.
Biggest worries
The offensive line: Right guard Jon Feliciano will miss at least the first three weeks of the season after being placed on injured reserve because of a torn pectoral muscle that required surgery. The Bills had hoped to return all five starters from last year, but at least temporarily, that won’t be an option. Even when Feliciano returns, the question has to be asked: Is status quo good enough? The offensive line really struggled in the playoff loss to Houston. Defensive coordinators likely will look at the Texans’ game plan – relentless pursuit of Allen – and try to duplicate it. Can the line better protect Allen while consistently opening up holes for the running game? That remains to be seen.
Run defense: Veteran defensive tackle Star Lotulelei has opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns related to the Covid-19 pandemic. How he’ll be replaced in the starting lineup remains to be seen. Third-year veteran Harrison Phillips is returning from a torn ACL, and it will be a big ask for him to be ready for 50 or 60 snaps a game from Week 1. The Bills’ overall run defense has gone through some noticeable struggles under McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier in the past, and faces some strong running teams in 2020. Lotulelei’s true value to the roster will be on display in 2020, for better or worse, even with him at home.
The kicking game: The Bills are trusting a rookie kicker. Until Tyler Bass shows he can come through with the game on the line, that’s going to be a huge question mark. The Bills also have never seemed totally secure with Corey Bojorquez at punter. His consistency remains maddening. To Bojorquez’s credit, he has survived challenges from Kaare Vedvik and Lachlan Edwards this offseason, but that doesn’t mean he should get too comfortable.
Offensive emphasis
Score more points. Captain Obvious alert! The Bills know that the 19.6 points per game they averaged last season isn’t going to cut it. The team finished in the bottom half of the league in red-zone touchdown percentage (17th at 56.8%) and goal-to-go percentage (21st at 69.6%). One way for the offense to be more explosive will be for Allen to improve his deep-passing accuracy.
Defensive emphasis
Maintain a high level of play with some new faces. Another one that sounds simple, but could prove to be more challenging. It's tough in the NFL year over year to sustain strong defense. The Bills will try to do so while replacing two key pieces of their defensive line – Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips – with veterans Mario Addison and Vernon Butler.
Looming question
Can Josh Allen take the next step? Yes, this is exactly the same question as last year – but it remains unanswered. Allen has shown undeniable improvement in his first two NFL seasons. He has so much of what you want in a franchise quarterback. He’s worked hard to improve his deficiencies. His detractors, though, will point to the playoff meltdown against Houston as evidence that Allen will never be able to overcome his “hero ball” mentality. Beane has made it so that pretty much all possible excuses for Allen have been eliminated. Now, the quarterback has to show whether he can live up to the “franchise quarterback” tag.
Outlook
The Bills can finish with the same record as a year ago and be a much-improved team. Strength of schedule isn’t always a great predictor of what a team’s fortunes will be, but it’s worth pointing out the Bills face the fifth-toughest schedule this year based on opponents’ winning percentage in 2019. The schedule includes games against both Super Bowl representatives from last season, Kansas City and San Francisco, as well as a great deal more travel, including four trips to the Mountain or Pacific time zones.
As Beane pointed out, too, teams aren’t going to sleep on the Bills this year. None of the Bills’ first four opponents made the playoffs last season, so duplicating last year’s 3-0 start could go a long way toward a return trip to the postseason – and potentially a lot more.
Projected record: 10-6.
At least four prime-time games, including two at home, highlight this year's Bills schedule.

