Momentum going into the Big Dance: myth or magic?

Mr. Popular 

Meet Mo.

Mo is quite popular this time of the year.

In 2011, Mo hopped on the back of Kemba Walker and helped carry Connecticut through the Big East and NCAA Tournaments and to a national title.

Tucson has a good relationship with Mo — after all, Mo was there when the Wildcats upset three different No. 1 seeds on their way to the 1997 championship.

Mo — full name: Mo Mentum — isn’t actually a person. It’s an idea, and, in March, it’s everything.

Common sense says that teams that build up momentum at the end of the season, with winning streaks or late-season thrilling finishes, tend to be in better shape for the NCAA Tournament.

But is that entirely accurate?

Look at that 1997 Arizona team. Heading into the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats were coming off a two-game losing streak and had a 6-5 record in their last 11 games. A No. 4 seed, Arizona went on to win its tournament games by eight, four, three, four, eight and five points, respectively. 

2011 team got hot at right time 

Arizona’s 2011 team went 2-2 in its last four regular-season games and lost the Pac-12 Tournament final on a last-second shot by Washington’s Isaiah Thomas.

Derrick Williams and the Wildcats then got hot, winning two close NCAA Tournament games and upsetting top-seeded Duke to reach the Elite 8. Had Jamelle Horne’s 3-point attempt fallen against UConn, the Wildcats would have made the Final Four. 

This year's Wildcats compare to years past 

Then there’s the flip side. The 1989 Wildcats entered the tournament as a No. 1 seed and carrying a nine-game winning streak, only to lose in the Sweet 16. In 1993, Arizona finished the season winning 23 of 24 games, only to fall as a No. 2 seed to 15th-seeded Santa Clara.

So where does this year’s team stand on the spectrum of momentum?

That’s hard to say. Arizona closed the regular season with last-second and blowout wins against Cal and Stanford, respectively, and took Oregon, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, into overtime in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals.

“I’ll say this,” Miller said. “We had some really bad moments in that game. To have those bad moments and have the opportunity to win I think says a lot about our team.”

Added Kaleb Tarczewski, a senior: “We lose, we’re done. The season’s over, and I think everyone on the team understands that. I think that we’re really going to be playing our best basketball in the tournament.”

The Wildcats compare, in a lot of ways, to many of Arizona’s NCAA Tournament teams of years past. Here’s a look at how UA stacks up: 

2016

• Coach: Sean Miller

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 25-8

• Seed: No. 6

• Momentum? 2-2 in last four games, 8-4 in last 12; lost Pac-12 Tournament semifinals to Oregon.

• Roster makeup: Standout freshman (Allonzo Trier), four-year seniors (Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York), transfers (Ryan Anderson, Mark Tollefsen) and role players (Kadeem Allen, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Dusan Ristic)

• How they did: TBA 

2013

• Coach: Miller

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 25-7

• Seed: No. 6

• Momentum? 4-4 in last eight games; lost to UCLA in Pac-12 Tournament semifinals

• Roster makeup: Standout freshmen (Tarczewski, Brandon Ashley), four-year seniors (Solomon Hill, Kevin Parrom), transfer (Mark Lyons) and role players (Nick Johnson, Jordin Mayes)

• How they did: Made Sweet 16, where they lost to Ohio State 73-70 

2011

• Coach: Miller

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 27-7

• Seed: No. 5

• Momentum? 2-2 in last four regular-season games, lost to Washington in Pac-12 title game

• Roster makeup: Star (Williams), Standout freshman (Mayes), four-year senior (Jamelle Horne), transfer (Jesse Perry) and role players (Hill, Parrom, MoMo Jones, Kyle Fogg)

• How they did: Made Elite Eight, where they lost to UConn, 65-63 

2007

• Coach: Lute Olson

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 20-10

• Seed: No. 8

• Momentum? 8-8 in last 16 games but closed season with three straight wins.

• Roster makeup: Star (Marcus Williams), standout freshman (Chase Budinger), four-year seniors (Ivan Radenovic, Mustafa Shakur) and role players (Jawann McClellan, Jordan Hill)

• How they did: Lost to Purdue, 72-63, in first round 

2006

• Coach: Olson

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 19-12

• Seed: No. 8

• Momentum? 5-5 record in last 10 games, 9-8 in last 17

• Roster makeup: Standout freshman (Marcus Williams), four-year seniors (Chris Rodgers, Hassan Adams) and role players (Mustafa Shakur, Kirk Walters, J.P. Prince)

• How they did: Lost to Villanova, 82-78, in second round 

1999

• Coach: Olson

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 22-6

• Seed: No. 4

• Momentum? 10-5 in last 15 games, 2-2 in last four

• Roster makeup: Star (Jason Terry), standout freshmen (Richard Jefferson, Michael Wright), four-year senior (A.J. Bramlett) and role players (Ruben Douglas, Eugene Edgerson).

• How they did: Lost to Oklahoma, 61-60, in first round 

1997

• Coach: Olson

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 19-9

• Seed: No. 4

• Momentum? 6-5 in last 11 games; ended season on two-game losing streak

• Roster makeup: Star (Miles Simon), Stud (Michael Dickerson), standout freshman (Mike Bibby) and role players (Bramlett, Bennett Davison, Donnell Harris)

• How they did: Upset No. 1 seeds Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky to win the national championship 

1996

• Coach: Olson

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 24-6

• Seed: No. 3

• Momentum? 6-2 in last eight games; lost to Stanford in penultimate game

• Roster makeup: Stand-out freshman (Terry), four-year seniors (Joseph Blair, Reggie Geary, Corey Williams) and role players (Dickerson, Ben Davis, Joe McLean).

• How they did: Advanced to the Sweet 16, where they lost to Kansas, 83-80 

1995

• Coach: Olson

• Record entering NCAA Tournament: 23-7

• Seed: No. 5

• Momentum? Lost at ASU to close regular season; went 5-3 over final eight games

• Roster makeup: Star (Damon Stoudamire), stand-out freshman (Simon), four-year senior (Ray Owes) and role players (Geary, Blair, Davis, Corey Williams)

• How they did: Lost to Miami (Ohio), 71-62, in first round