Final Four betting guide: Villanova Wildcats

Villanova is 30-7, finished second in the Big East regular season, won the conference tournament and is a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament out of the South Region.

The Wildcats face No. 1 Kansas in a national semifinal Saturday night in New Orleans.

FrontPageBets takes a look at Villanova from a Final Four betting perspective.

Why they will cover

Villanova (+4.5) might be the strongest team -- and the one with the most momentum -- left standing in the Final Four. It has won 14 of its last 15 games, the lone loss in that span being a two-point road defeat at UConn, another ranked team.

The Wildcats played plenty of close games in that span, particularly in the Big East tournament, which has sharpened the proverbial blade for the rest of March. They took down a pair of Big Ten foes that were no slouches, Ohio State and Michigan, before knocking out Kelvin Sampson’s Houston team that was angling to become a back-to-back Final Four participant.

It might not have been the prettiest or most exciting game of basketball this year, but Villanova’s 50-44 victory in the Elite Eight was predictable in the sense that both teams employ extremely slow tempos and place a ton of importance on defense. Villanova held Houston guard Kyler Edwards to 1-of-12 shooting and won the battle of similar styles.

Jay Wright has guided Villanova to its fourth Final Four in his tenure as its coach. The program won national titles in 2016 and 2018, giving it an edge even in a group of four blue bloods.

X-factors

How many college basketball programs in 2022 can say they have a player with national championship experience from four years ago? Villanova can. After his 2020-21 season ended with an ankle injury, super-senior point guard Collin Gillespie came back with this exact reason in mind.

Gillespie, the Big East Player of the Year and finalist for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year, contributed off the bench for the 2017-18 Wildcats team that defeated Kansas in the Final Four and Michigan to win the national title. Now he is their captain and lodestar, averaging 15.6 points and 3.3 assists per game and shooting 40.9% from 3-point range.

It’s crucial to note that starting guard Justin Moore suffered a torn right Achilles tendon near the end of the Houston game and will not be available. Moore was Villanova’s second-leading scorer (14.8 points) and third-leading rebounder (4.8), and the Wildcats will need a reserve to step up for the weekend and fill his shoes.

Another X-factor is Villanova’s free-throw shooting. The Wildcats have made a remarkable 83% of their foul shots this season, allowing them to win many a close game. The NCAA single-season record was set by Harvard in 1983-84 (82.2%).

Compelling prop bet

In 10 of their last 11 games, Villanova was the first team to reach 25 points. Some of these were blowouts, others were narrow and dicey -- like against UConn in the Big East tournament semifinal, when Brandon Slater hit a 3-pointer to push the Wildcats ahead 25-23. The point is that Villanova can take a punch and give one back, and its capacity for hot shooting, whether from behind the arc or at the free-throw line, means those points will pile up even when they’re playing at a snail’s pace.

Kansas is a bit more streaky, as seen in the tale of two halves in its Elite Eight win over Miami. The Hurricanes beat the Jayhawks to 25 points and led by six at halftime before Kansas took control in the second half and blew UM away by a 47-15 margin.

BetMGM is offering Kansas to win the race to 25 points at -160 and Villanova at +115. The Wildcats feel like a much surer bet, and fortunately, one that would pay out a lot better as well.

By the numbers

The Wildcats are 20-16-1 against the spread this season, including all four of their NCAA Tournament games. They are a fantastic 10-1 on neutral courts.

Villanova is 17-20-0 in Over/Unders, with the under hitting in six of its last seven games. They have their stout defense to thank for that, along with the fact that they themselves have only reached 80 points on offense once since Feb. 15.

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