Employers, hobbled by a labor shortage, hoped workers would come rushing back in September, once the additional $300 in federal supplemental payments dried up.
So far, they haven't.
Retailers and restaurants are still opening later and closing early. Manufacturers are running shorthanded. And help wanted signs are everywhere.
The same scenario played out in other states across the country that ended supplemental payments early. Of 26 states that stopped payments ahead of their Sept. 5 expiration, only eight of them saw a statistically significant change in unemployment rates, according to federal data.
So if the supplemental payments are no longer giving workers an incentive to stay home, what's going on?
Simply put, there's more to the worker shortage than meets the eye, experts said, and employers were already wrestling with much of it long before the pandemic began.
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Jennifer Beahen, 45, of Niagara Falls, worked for years at a promotional company in Grand Island.
"I loved my job," she said. "We were like family."
But that job disappeared when the pandemic began and the company pared down its payroll.
The company has begun hiring again, but Beahen won't be going back. If she did, she would have to start from the bottom all over again – without the paid vacation time and other benefits she had spent eight years accumulating at the company.
Last week, she attended an outdoor job fair at Oppenheim Park in Wheatfield looking for a comparable position in an office setting, or someplace fulfilling where she can help people.
"It's hard to go backward," she said.
Now that unemployment payments have gone back to normal, some workers are afraid to hold out for the best job they're qualified for, staffing recruiters at the fair said.
Under pressure, some are more willing to accept whatever is available – even if it means taking a step down on the corporate ladder or taking a pay cut.
But those workers are trickling in, rather than pouring in.
Joe Rindfuss at employment website WNYjobs.com was expecting a flood of job seekers last month that never materialized.
"While we have seen our website traffic increase since Sept. 6, we haven’t seen the immediate spikes we anticipated," he said.
The most noticeable change has been a slight uptick in applications for entry-level jobs that pay hourly.
Sally Page, center right, of Lockport, speaks to a representative from Spectrum at the job fair put on by Niagara's WorkSourceOne at Oppenheim Park in Niagara Falls, Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2021.
"I think those were the positions most affected by the extra money," Rindfuss said.
But more specialized workers are taking their time.
"Job seekers with more skills or experience still seem to be pretty selective as to what they will apply to," he said.
Schools are back in session, which alleviates some of the child care difficulties that kept many potential workers at home. But it doesn't mean parents are in the clear.
A critical shortage of child care workers limits the number of children a day care center can take. And uncertainty about closures, quarantines and other unforeseen pandemic-induced circumstances leaves parents worried about how readily child care will be available. Parents are hesitant to take a new job if it means they may have to ask for time off to care for their children during the workday. It's also costly, especially for low-wage earners.
"The issue of child care can make it very difficult for a parent to go back to work," said Donald Jablonski, director of Niagara County Employment and Training.
Workers are aging out of the workforce as well. The rate of retirement accelerated during the pandemic, taking out workers who might have stuck it out a few years longer under regular circumstances.
"The grey tsunami is hitting, and they're struggling to find replacements," he said.
As they did before the pandemic, employers have resorted to poaching workers from other companies.
That's why retaining workers is just as important as recruiting them, said Maggie Shea, managing partner of Humboldt Parkway employment agency StaffBuffalo.
"Since Covid, the need to hire and retain top staff has exponentially increased, so that companies are more focused on one good hire of someone with many talents versus mediocre hires to just fill a seat," she said.
Companies are taking the time and money necessary to find more specialized workers who will fit into the company's culture for the long haul.
Still, it's not easy.
"People have very specific needs and wants and they will wait until they find the best fit in an organization and in a position," Shea said. "Companies have to entice people to leave their positions or come out of unemployment by offering tangible benefits that they need."
Companies are turning to signing bonuses to attract workers.
Ryerson, a stainless steel firm in Lancaster, is offering signing bonuses of up to $2,500 for certain skilled workers. Signing bonuses are a way for companies to give an extra financial incentive to new workers without changing their overall wage scale for all workers.
StaffBuffalo has been working with its clients to make them more attractive to workers. That includes helping them enhance their corporate culture, pay, benefits and time off.
Those things are more important than ever, now that widespread worker introspection has led to the Great Resignation.
"Instead of worrying about making more money, people seem to be assessing what really matters to them and how they envision their lives," Shea said. She added later, "People are preferring to cut down on expenses versus staying employed throughout the uncertainty," Shea said.
Chris Empson, 32, of Niagara Falls, works in construction. He has done well in the field, he said, but the jobs are inconsistent. Many employers want to pay off the books and don't offer things like paid time off, he said.
After re-evaluating things during the pandemic, Empson decided it was time to look for something new. He was at the job fair seeking a more consistent 9 to 5 job with benefits.
"Covid was an eye-opener," he said. "The money in construction is great, but it's time to grow up."

