The July 7 Atlantic Hurricane season update from Colorado State University has another increase in the amount of tropical activity expected.
Including the fived named storms that occurred at the time of the July 7 update, which put the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season on a record breaking pace, CSU forecasts 20, named tropical storms or hurricanes to occur. That is an slight increase from the 19 last predicted in the June update. Out of the 20, 9 hurricanes and 4 major, category 3 or greater (at least 111 mph sustained winds) are forecasted, the same as the June update.
"We have maintained our above-average seasonal hurricane forecast for the 2020 Atlantic season." the CSU report read, which is led by Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, and Jhordanna Jones.
Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2020
continues call for very active 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season. New forecast calls for 20 named storms (including the 5 that have already formed), 9 hurricanes and 4 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes. https://t.co/wIVwJdWMcO pic.twitter.com/OYOMcIIBDz
The 1981-2010 average of activity includes 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes, respectively.
There still remains an above average risk of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the United States, including the Florida Peninsula. The 45% chance is virtually unchanged from earlier updates On average, there has been a 31% probability in the last century.
CSU attributes warmer than average waters in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, slightly warmer than average waters in the tropical Atlantic as reasons for the active forecast. Furthermore, a possible transition from a neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation to a La Nina late this summer would promote an active season. In a La Nina, there's a lack of wind shear, or change of winds with height, which can rip storms apart.
What happens in a La Niña, which may develop late in the summer into the fall.
Tropical cyclone names rotate every six years. Exceptionally notable hurricane names, such as Sandy, become retired by the World Meteorological Organization. However, no names were retired in 2014, meaning 2020 will have the same list as then.

