It's not a good sign when the governor devotes an entire slide in his statewide Covid-19 briefing to Western New York and says the rate of infection merits a "caution flag." Or when Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz calls the rising number of confirmed cases in Erie County "worrisome."
Both things happened Monday.
So, how worried should you be about the start of new surge?
The short answer, according to both politicians and a scientist, is it's too early to do much hand wringing. The numbers bear watching, but context matters.
Western New York's positive test rate was the only one among the state's nine regions that was over 1%, and it marks the fourth straight day the five-county region has had the highest percentage of positive tests in the state.
Metaphorical alarm bells began ringing Thursday, when Erie County recorded 81 cases, its highest one-day total of confirmed cases since May.
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That one-day figure has had an impact on the Western New York region's positive test rate because Erie County is the region's population center, and the rate figures into the region's seven-day rolling average. The state looks at this figure as a sign of the region's rate of infection transmission.
But a wider look at the numbers doesn't yet show an obvious pattern of infection growth. As of Monday afternoon, the numbers of confirmed cases per thousand residents in this region was not that different from what it was in mid-July, or even two weeks ago.
The daily percentage of positive tests, as a seven-day rolling average, has consistently hovered between .9% and 1.4% since the second week of June. As of Sunday, the state's daily positive test rate for this region had fallen to 1.1%. Moreover, both Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths in Erie County show no noteworthy changes.
"We’ve been hovering between 1 and 2% since mid-June, just sitting there," said Dr. Peter Winkelstein, executive director of the Institute for Healthcare Informatics and University at Buffalo professor at the Jacobs School of Medicine. "Is it possible we’re seeing a little bit of a spike? Sure, but I won’t start getting alarmed until I see that seven-day average get above 2% and stay above 2%."
But the numbers do bear watching, he said.
"The thing that gives me confidence is that it’s been steady," Winkelstein said. "But I can’t explain why it's sitting at a slightly higher level than the rest of the state."
The state's overall positive test rate for Sunday was 0.66%, the lowest since the pandemic started and the 17th straight day that the statewide rate was below 1%.
"The number of positive tests is somewhat escalated," Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Monday. "Not a cause for serious concern, but it is a caution flag, and we are looking at it."
Erie County Health Commissioner Dr. Gale Burstein was unavailable to comment Monday, but Cuomo said the increase appeared to be influenced by several factors:
• Clusters cited at a steel plant in Erie County and a food processing plant in Chautauqua County. Chautauqua County officials on Monday later identified the Dunkirk food processing plant Fieldbrook Foods as the source of 21 active cases.
• New cases uncovered at two nursing homes identified through staff testing mandated by the state
• Testing of seasonal labor at Western New York farms
• Pre-screening of residents due for hospital procedures.
The unaveraged, daily positive testing percentages for Erie and Niagara counties are higher than usual, though these snapshot percentages tend to fluctuate depending on how many people choose to get tested, and how many results are returned, at any given time.
Winkelstein said this daily "noise" is not a good way to track or measure the likelihood of a Covid-19 surge here, particularly since many test results now lag, sometimes by a couple of weeks, because of testing shortages.
Monday's snapshot positivity numbers demonstrate this.
Erie County announced Monday that it had 21 positive cases among its 1,469 tests on Sunday. That results in a positivity percentage of 1.4%. The state prefers to see this percentage at 1% or lower.
But the 21 confirmed cases reported Monday actually represent the county's lowest daily number of positive cases in seven days.
To confuse matters further, state records indicate that Erie County's Sunday total was 26 positive cases among 1,452 tests for a rate of 1.8%.
Daily totals from the respective counties often differ slightly from the state's data due to discrepancies that can include tests administered in one county on individuals who are not from that county, or circumstances such as the timing and/or reporting of tests.
Meanwhile, Niagara County reported 21 cases on Monday, which was the highest total the county has reported since it had 21 on Aug. 7; the county's total hasn't been higher since the county reported 34 on July 6. Monday's announced total included cases from Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Niagara County Public Health Director Daniel J. Stapleton said Monday that there's no need for worry.
"The governor was correct to raise the issue that Western New York has seen an uptick in the last few days, but it's also important to remember the governor also said the numbers are not a cause for serious concern," Stapleton said. "Our rate of infection in Niagara County continues to go anywhere from just under 1% to just under 2% and that is where we still are, even with this uptick."
Poloncarz released a statement Monday urging residents to remain vigilant in their health safety practices and affirming the work of the county Health Department.
"While performing their case investigations, our contact tracers are documenting new cases as clusters within households, workplaces, and nursing homes, and also from unknown sources of transmission in the general public," he said.
News reporter Thomas J. Prohaska contributed to this story.
