Even though Gov. Doug Ducey said the pandemic is under control while he fully reopened the state on Thursday, a race is still unfolding between vaccinations and new variants of the virus that causes COVID-19.
“The race is still being run. And at this point there’s no clear winner,” said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor with the University of Arizona’s College of Public Health.
He said the governor’s decision to lift all restrictions on businesses and public gatherings allows the virus to run a little bit faster.
Meanwhile, the faster everyone gets vaccinated, the fewer chances new variants of the virus will have to spread and mutate even more.
Virus variants of “concern”
Scientists in Arizona have found all the variants of “concern” that a group of federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, track and rank.
The group ranks these variants into three categories, from least to most concerning: Those of “interest,” those of “concern” and those of “high consequence.” None of the new variants have risen to the level of high consequence, although any variant can be recategorized as additional evidence comes to light.
Not surprisingly, of the small percentage of positive COVID-19 cases that have been examined or “sequenced,” higher numbers of two variants from California called B.1.427 and B.1.429 have been found statewide, according to an online dashboard managed by Translational Genomics Research Institute or TGen. These two variants are categorized as variants of concern.
Others of concern in Arizona include B.1.1.7, which originated from the United Kingdom. This variant was recently detected at the University of Arizona, but Pima County health officials already knew it had been circulating here to some degree.
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Scientists have also detected a few cases of P.1 in Arizona, which originated in Brazil. And on Friday, state health officials announced a few cases of B.1.351, which originated in South Africa.
These new variants will likely replace the classic version of the virus, said Michael Worobey, head of the UA’s Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.
“It’s hard to say actually if one of them will reign supreme,” he said. “And in some ways it doesn’t matter because all of them are more transmissible and so they’ll present a sort of relatively equal challenge, but time will tell if one displaces all the others.”
Vaccines effective
While scientists in Arizona have found some mutations of the virus that are associated with immune escape or immune evasion, these mutations don’t render the vaccine completely ineffective.
Such a mutation in the Brazilian and South African variants doesn’t look to “completely obliterate” the effectiveness of the vaccine, Worobey said. “So, I’m actually not, at this stage, super-concerned. In fact, I think we’re in really good shape with the vaccine rollout to use that as a great tool to protect vulnerable people in the population.”
Along with the vaccine, the best ways to slow these variants are to follow standard COVID-19 strategies, like wearing a mask, social-distancing and avoiding large gatherings.
“It’s kind of like tickets in the lottery,” Worobey said. “These mutations that have huge impacts are relatively rare events. But if you have millions of tickets in the lottery, you will stumble upon these rare events more often. It is basically just a simple calculation that the more cases there are, the more opportunity you’re giving for the virus to generate even more concerning forms than already exist.”
It would be impossible to draw a direct link between Ducey’s decision to reopen the state and the emergence of a new, even more worrisome variant, Gerald said.
Instead, it’s a bunch of decisions like Ducey’s across the globe that may disadvantage us by giving the virus more opportunity to spread and mutate.
“in the thick of it”
When Ducey lifted restrictions on businesses and public gatherings he also stripped local governments of their ability to implement their own mask mandates.
Some health experts have called his decisions premature. And Tucson Mayor Regina Romero said she has no intent to remove Tucson’s local mask mandate.
“It’s too early to completely roll back these sorts of restrictions,” Worobey said. “We’re still in the thick of it for at least another couple of months before a wide swath of the population is vaccinated.”
While there are still enough unvaccinated people in Arizona for another spike in COVID-19 cases, Gerald said enough of the most vulnerable people have been vaccinated to protect the hospitals.
This is a point the state’s top health official, Dr. Cara Christ, made multiple times at a news conference on Friday while she defended the governor’s decision.
“We could see another spike in cases, but if you look at the data, really what we were trying to prevent was an overwhelming of our hospitals and our health care systems,” Christ said, adding that the state prioritized those at highest risk for developing a severe case of COVID-19.
Christ said that while the restrictions on businesses are no longer mandated, the state still recommends them. Businesses can opt to require masks and to enforce other measures for mitigating COVID-19.
While the vaccine rollout is accelerating, Gerald said he would have waited to lift the restrictions until everyone who wants a vaccine has had a chance to get one. He pointed out that the state only just opened up vaccines to everyone over 16 years old.
“I think most Arizonans, not all, but the majority of Arizonans recognize that this outbreak is not over, that there still is some risk and they’re going to persist with some of these protective behaviors, regardless of what Gov. Ducey does,” Gerald said.
This overlaps with an argument that Christ made several times on Friday for shifting the responsibility of COVID-19 mitigation measures to individuals.
“Everyone has a personal responsibility to wear masks to make sure that they’re following those recommendations,” she said.
Fully reopening the state at this stage, however, presents a couple problems, Gerald said. Some people may get sick before they can get vaccinated. And the virus isn’t finished evolving.
“Any time you give the virus more opportunities you disadvantage yourself because the virus, while it’s not conscious, it has a survival instinct in a very Darwinian sense that mutations allow the fittest variants to survive and thrive.”
Pandemic year 2: Vaccines, variants, and other developments
Pandemic year 2: Vaccines, variants, and other developments
A year after the COVID-19 pandemic first arrived on American soil, the U.S. still has a long way to go before the coronavirus is under control. But this second year of life with SARS-CoV-2 has started off with a bang, with a new White House administration promising major changes to the nation’s pandemic response and millions of vaccine doses being administered daily.
While the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were the big news of 2020—and are now being injected into the arms of over a million Americans each day—2021 has brought new vaccine trial results from Novavax, Johnson & Johnson, and Russia’s Sputnik V. Some results have been more promising than others, stirring experts to debate the balance between vaccine effectiveness and the challenges of availability and distribution. Meanwhile, researchers are scrambling to learn how each of these vaccines will perform when met with the new variants of SARS-CoV-2 that are taking hold across the globe.
The Biden administration has been announcing executive orders and new initiatives left and right, putting more scientists in charge of pandemic response and pushing to get vaccines to as many Americans as possible. The CDC has continued to issue new guidelines as they’ve developed more safety measures to prevent transmission of the virus, like suggesting doubling up on masks and guidelines on how to keep school kids safe during in-person classes.
With so much changing every day, it can be hard to keep up with all the news. That’s why Stacker has constructed a timeline of how the COVID-19 pandemic has played out so far in 2021, using White House briefings and news reports. Here’s what President Biden and his administration have accomplished since he took office in January, and what the virus—and its novel variants—have been up to since then.
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Jan. 20-21: Biden takes office, issues executive orders
President Joe Biden wasted no time after his Jan. 20 inauguration ceremony. He signed 15 executive orders during his first day in office, several of which related to the COVID-19 pandemic. He mandated masks and social distancing in federal buildings, set up a specific department to coordinate the federal response to the pandemic, rejoined the World Health Organization, and extended the moratoriums on foreclosures, evictions, and student loan payments.
Jan. 25, Jan. 28: New coronavirus variants from Brazil and South Africa reported in the US
Two new, more contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 were detected in the United States in late January. The P.1 variant made its way to Minnesota by way of a resident who had traveled to Brazil, while the two South Carolina patients carrying the B.1.351 variant from South Africa had no history of travel to countries where the variant has been confirmed.
Jan. 26: Biden administration purchases 200 million vaccine doses
To vaccinate all 300 million Americans with the necessary two doses, health care providers will need 600 million units of the vaccine. That’s why the Biden administration announced that by summer it will have purchased the additional 200 million shots needed to meet that mark.
Jan. 27: First press briefing with new White House COVID-19 team
Jeffrey Zients, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator, led the Biden administration's first press briefing on the pandemic. Immediate goals include increasing the number of both vaccination sites and health care providers who can administer the vaccines. In general, the message was one of urgency—plus relief to have scientists back at the helm of the nation’s pandemic response.
Jan. 28: Novavax releases vaccine trial results
Preliminary clinical trial results from the United Kingdom showed that the Novavax vaccine was 94% effective against the virus. Results from a study in South Africa were less promising, with only 49% effectiveness.
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Jan. 28: Biden expands Affordable Care Act coverage
The White House opened a “special enrollment period” for the Affordable Care Act after determining that millions of Americans eligible for ACA health coverage remain uninsured. President Biden also took steps to roll back Trump-era policies like work requirements for Medicaid and limitations for Americans with pre-existing medical conditions.
Jan. 29: Johnson & Johnson releases vaccine trial results
Like the Novavax results the day before, clinical trial results for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine disappointed some experts with just a 66% effectiveness against moderate to severe COVID-19. These results varied by location, with effectiveness slightly higher in the U.S. (72%) and lower in Latin America (66%) and South Africa (57%). However, with only a single shot, the vaccine prevented serious disease progression—hospitalization or death—which means it could still find a place in the world’s overall pandemic response.
Feb. 1: More Americans vaccinated than have tested positive
By the start of February, 32.8 million vaccine doses had been administered in the U.S.—more doses than the number of people who have tested positive since the virus first reached the U.S. in January 2020. Just over 6 million people had already received both doses by this date, and the U.S. continues to administer over a million shots per day.
Feb. 2: Results for Russia's Sputnik V vaccine
The more vaccine options, the merrier. Russia announced results from its Sputnik V clinical trials: 91.6% effective against symptomatic COVID-19, and 100% effective against severe disease progression. No severe or moderate cases were reported in the vaccinated group of 14,964 people.
Feb. 6: Over 2 million vaccinations in one day
For the first time, the U.S. administered over 2 million vaccinations in a single day, bringing the national tally to over 40 million doses administered and more than 8 million people fully vaccinated.
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Feb. 9: WHO task force examines virus origins
The WHO task force investigating the origins of SARS-CoV-2 in China held a press briefing on Feb. 9, announcing that they’d found no evidence that the virus jumped straight from bats to humans, or that it could have escaped from the virus lab in Wuhan. An intermediate carrier for the disease is currently the most likely hypothesis, though much more research is needed to confirm.
Feb. 10: COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force members announced
The White House announced the members of a new COVID-19 task force focused on reducing health inequities exacerbated by the ongoing pandemic. The team will work to analyze issues such as disparities in COVID-19 cases, hospital stays, and deaths among racial and geographic lines.
Feb. 10: CDC recommends doubling up on masks
Two masks are better than one: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officially recommended doubling up on masks to improve protection against COVID-19. The CDC especially recommends layering a cloth mask over a surgical mask, but in general, the idea is to improve the seal around the edges of often ill-fitting masks.
Feb. 12: CDC releases new guidance on school reopenings
Long-awaited guidance on school reopenings arrived on Feb. 12, when the CDC announced new, science-based strategies for determining how and when to reopen K-12 schools. In general, the guidelines say that depending on current community transmission rates, schools may be safe to reopen as long as they follow proper masking, social distancing, handwashing, cleaning, and contact tracing protocol.
Feb. 14: Over 1,000 reported cases of B.1.1.7 variant
The CDC is closely following the progression of the new coronavirus variants in the U.S. The B.1.351 variant, first identified in South Carolina, has now shown up 21 times in 10 states, while the P.1 variant first found in Minnesota has been reported five times in four states. But there's another strain, B.1.1.7, which is ringing alarm bells: It’s up to 1,523 reported cases in 42 states as of Feb. 18.
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Feb. 21: 500,000 Americans have died from COVID-19
According to an NBC News tally, the U.S. reached a new milestone on Feb. 21: 500,000 deaths from COVID-19. Other trackers, such as Johns Hopkins and the CDC, haven’t reached this milestone yet due to differences in accounting, but they will likely cross that threshold within a few days. California leads the rankings with over 49,000 deaths.
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Feb. 27: Johnson & Johnson vaccine authorized by FDA
The U.S. added a third COVID-19 vaccine to its arsenal when the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) gave Emergency Use Authorization to Johnson & Johnson. 3.9 million doses of this vaccine—the first shown to prevent severe COVID-19 disease with a single dose—were shipped out the next day, to be administered during the week of March 1. While that initial 3.9 million doses represents the entirety of Johnson & Johnson's current supply, the pharmaceutical company has promised to ramp up its production. It is expected to deliver 16 million doses to the U.S. by the end of March and 100 million by summer 2021.
March 2: States begin lifting mask restrictions, opening 100%
Multiple states in the first week of March peeled back mask mandates and other restrictions related to COVID-19, with Mississippi and Texas announcing the lifting all restrictions and West Virginia following close behind 6 barring some sustained restrictions for standing room congregation. Alabama, Arizona, and Connecticut similarly loosened rules. Throughout the pandemic, some states including Alaska and Georgia resisted ever implementing statewide mask mandates.
Contact reporter Alex Devoid at adevoid@tucson.com or 573-4417.
On Twitter: @DevoidAlex
Alex Devoid
Data/Investigative Reporter
Alex has been with the Star since June 2019. He previously wrote about the environment for the Arizona Republic and he's a graduate of the University of Arizona.
