Evidence suggests the deadly blast at an Iranian school was likely a US airstrike

The United Nations and human rights monitors criticized the Feb. 28 strike, which had the highest reported civilian death toll since the war began. More than 165 people were killed, mostly children, in the blast during school hours at Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School, according to Iranian state media.

Satellite images taken Wednesday and reviewed by the The Associated Press show most of the school in the city of Minab, about 680 miles southeast of Tehran, reduced to rubble, a crescent shape punched into its roof. Experts say the tight pattern of the damage visible on the satellite photos is consistent with a targeted airstrike.

Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the blast. Neither country accepted responsibility.

Asked about the strike at a Pentagon press briefing Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, "All I can say is that we're investigating that. We, of course, never target civilian targets. But we're taking a look and investigating that."

Several factors point to a U.S. strike

One is the launching of an assessment of the incident by the U.S. military. According to the Pentagon's instructions on processes for mitigating civilian harm, an assessment is launched after a group of investigators make an initial determination that the U.S. military may bear culpability. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the AP the strike was likely American.

Another is the location of the school — next to a base of the Revolutionary Guard in Hormozgan Province and close to a barracks for its naval brigade. The U.S. military focused on naval targets and acknowledged strikes in the province, including one in the vicinity of the school.

Israel, which denied conducting the strike, focused on areas of Iran closer to Israel and hasn't reported conducting any strikes south of Isfahan, 500 miles away. U.S. warships in the Arabian Sea are within range of the school.

When asked by the AP about its findings, U.S. military Central Command spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said, "It would be inappropriate to comment given the incident is under investigation."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday that she had no updates on the investigation and did not directly answer a question about whether Trump was satisfied with the pace of the probe.

"My assumption is that probably there were some activities recently there and they detected and tracked them, but … they weren't aware or didn't have an up-to-date database that a girls' school was there and they bombed it," said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies Iran's military.

Satellite images show damage

The school is adjacent to a walled compound labeled on maps as the Seyyed Al-Shohada Cultural Complex of the Guard, which included a pharmacy, gym and sports field.

Satellite photos show blasts also struck at least five buildings in the Guard compound, leaving the area pocked with craters, charred holes in roofs and piles of rubble.

Iranian online map applications show a living quarters for the Assef Brigades about 165 yards from the school, in the Revolutionary Guard compound. The 16th Assef Coastal Missile Group is part of the Guard's navy, Nadimi said. The 1st Naval District, which the Assef Brigades belong to, is responsible for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded passes and a particular point of conflict in the war.

After the strike, video from Iran's state broadcaster verified by the Associated Press using satellite imagery showed dozens of fresh graves dug at a nearby cemetery. Nadimi said it is likely the school taught daughters of Guard personnel.

The strike drew wide condemnation from international human rights groups amid reports that airstrikes also hit other schools in Iran.

Targeting schools would be a clear violation of international laws governing armed conflict, said Elise Baker, a senior staff lawyer at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based nonprofit think tank.

Pattern of damage suggests targeted strike

Three experts told the AP the satellite imagery and videos strongly suggest multiple munitions hit the compound. Complicating any assessment is the lack of images of bomb fragments. No independent agency reached the site during the war to investigate.

There are no craters or evidence of bombs hitting in the surrounding neighborhood, suggesting a great degree of accuracy, said Corey Scher, a researcher who uses satellite imagery and radar data to study landscape changes in armed conflict zones. He said the school and the other buildings struck in the compound showed damage consistent with the use of air-to-surface munitions.

Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert, said the available satellite imagery was insufficient to determine exactly what type of munitions were used in the strike, but said the visible damage was consistent with what would be expected from multiple 2,000-pound high-explosive warheads. He said the multiple precise impacts would undercut any suggestion that a malfunctioning Iranian missile hit the school.