We're still seasonally in the height of fall, but the first few flakes of snow have already fallen in some parts of the country — in the northern latitudes, the Mountain West and even the highest peaks of Arizona.
Some of the light accumulations in Arizona’s high elevations have melted given the fluctuations with warmer daytime temperatures, but it’s exciting nonetheless. Humphreys Peak, Arizona’s highest mountain, has recorded 4 inches of snow so far this season. Two inches fell for the first time on Sept. 29, and another 2 inches fell the night of Oct. 12, according to Arizona Snowbowl officials.
This makes it perfect timing for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first official winter forecast for the 2026-27 season. And things are looking up for Arizonans who like rain and snow.
Snow covered the foothills of the Santa Catalina Mountains after a storm in March 2023. Things are looking up for Arizonans who like rain and snow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first official winter forecast for the 2026-2027 season shows.
When does winter start?
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The winter solstice is on Monday, Dec. 21, but for data’s sake, meteorological winter is the three-month period recorded from December to February.
Will there be good snow and rain?
Wetter-than-average conditions are expected in Arizona, along with the Southwest and the entire United States south. South-central and southwestern Arizona, plus central and southern California, have even higher odds of above-average rainfall.
This is one of the common impacts of El Niño — an active subtropical jet that keeps systems rolling along the southern border of the country. This means greater rainfall for lower elevations and greater snowfall for higher elevations.
If you plan to hit the slopes this winter, forecasts are increasingly positive about this season and El Niño’s impact on it. Data analysis from ZRankings shows that the peaks in the Southwest have seen 23% more snow during El Niño years — these are the most positive averages in North America.
Arizona Snowbowl specifically has seen 19% more snow during El Niño years. ZRanking created this dataset by comparing 40 years of winter snowfall reports at ski resorts to the strength of the El Niño or La Niña in each year and averaging the data.
Could winter be a possible drought-buster?
With the above-average precipitation expected in the state and region, NOAA shared confidence that short-term drought in Arizona could be temporarily relieved, if not improved, in southwestern and far northern Arizona. These are two spots that, as of the Oct. 13 drought monitor update, have Level 3 severe drought.
During the monsoon, relief was consistent along the Mogollon Rim and southeastern Arizona — these locations are only considered abnormally dry or having no short-term drought at all.
When asked about whether we’d see a greater number of storms or just particularly strong storms from the subtropical jet stream — our most common source of wetter weather — National Weather Service officials said it’s hard to say when doing a long-range forecast like this — it could be a combination of both.
Generally, during an El Niño year, the subtropical jet stream becomes more active (which could mean more storms), and increased moisture in the atmosphere from El Niño could supercharge storms that pass by.
How exactly the rain falls requires waiting and seeing.
Will it stay cool this winter?
NOAA forecasts say it’s not that clear: There are near-equal odds of having temperatures above-, near-, or below-average in Arizona and the whole Southwest region. If mean temperatures end up above or below average, it may not be by a large margin.
Many El Niño seasons in the past have seen cooler-than-average mean temperatures, leading some other forecasters to think this season will be cooler as well. If this season sees a greater number of storms, it could lead to cooler air sticking around as precipitation approaches and falls over the state.
In Phoenix, average winter highs range from 65 to 73 degrees, and average winter lows range from 44 to 52 degrees.
In Tucson, average winter highs range from 64 to 71 degrees, and average winter lows range from 40 to 45 degrees.
In Flagstaff, average winter highs range from 42 to 48 degrees, and average winter lows range from 16 to 21 degrees.
