Arizona homebuyers: Welcome to “buyer beware” territory.
If you’re looking to buy a home in Arizona’s growing suburbs like Buckeye, Queen Creek, or Marana, it’s essential to understand that you’re not just purchasing a property; you’re also taking on significant water risks. Many buyers are unaware of the hidden problems that come with the water supply, which could affect their investment in ways that aren't discussed by sellers or agents.
Rusty Childress
Arizona has long promoted the dream of endless growth — new neighborhoods, beautiful mountain views, and a serene desert lifestyle. However, the backbone of this growth, the Colorado River, is in trouble. Years of ongoing drought, overuse, and the harsh impacts of climate change have led to a serious crisis in the Southwest. The situation has reached a point where the consequences are becoming more apparent.
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By 2027, the current rules for managing the Colorado River are set to expire. Federal officials have already signaled that the state might need to cut up to 4 million acre-feet of water just to keep Lake Mead and Lake Powell from hitting critical lows. Arizona is in a precarious position. Due to historical agreements, it has lower priority when it comes to water usage. This means that when cuts are enforced, Arizona will likely feel the deepest cuts first.
The Central Arizona Project (CAP), which provides water to cities like Phoenix and Tucson, might face reductions of between 53% and 80%. This substantial decrease in the water supply poses a grave threat to Arizona’s growth-based economy.
Residents in areas like Rio Verde Foothills have experienced these water shortages firsthand. In early 2023, when Lake Mead went into a Tier 2a shortage, the city of Scottsdale halted water deliveries to this community. Suddenly, residents found themselves facing staggering costs of $1,000 to $2,000 per month for trucked water, or they had to leave their homes altogether. Property values plummeted, and for many, mortgages became unmanageable. Some homes became nearly impossible to sell without cash offers for buyers willing to confront the grim water situation.
That was just an 18-21% cut. Arizona may soon be looking at reductions that are four times as severe.
Despite this looming crisis, cities continue to issue “Certificates of Assured Water Supply,” often based on groundwater that is rapidly diminishing or on future desalination plants that remain unfunded and unbuilt. This is more than just optimistic thinking; it’s a disconnect from reality that can have serious implications for new homeowners.
Developers are also racing to build new houses as quickly as possible. Their business model rewards speed over sustainability. As long as they are granted water certificates, they can sell homes, pocket the revenue, and move on, leaving the long-term risks to families who may be unaware of the complexities involved.
Most homebuyers simply don’t realize the risks they are accepting. They assume their water supply is secure when, in fact, Arizona is facing a severe water shortage that could halt growth. The closer we get to 2027, the clearer it becomes that many buyers will find themselves in a precarious situation they never anticipated.
Rio Verde Foothills is not an isolated incident; it’s a warning sign of what could lie ahead. The next wave of water shortages won’t just affect a few thousand residents; it could have devastating effects on countless homes, entire neighborhoods, and local budgets.
If you're thinking about buying a home in Arizona, it’s crucial to do your homework. Reading the fine print is essential, but an even more pressing question needs to be asked: When a subdivision promises water, where is that water actually coming from, and how long will it still be available?
Rusty Childress is a nature photographer born in Tucson.
