Arizona-UCF scouting report: On UA's visit to Orlando, Big 12 battles and Cincy's bubble

No. 1 seed Arizona (29-2) vs No. 8 seed UCF (21-10)

• Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals * T-Mobile Center, Kansas City * Noon, Thursday • ESPN • 1290-AM

ARIZONA

Probable starters

0 Jaden Bradley G 6-3 senior

5 Brayden Burries G 6-4 freshman

18 Ivan Kharchenkov F 6-7 freshman

10 Koa Peat F 6-8 freshman

13 Motiejus Krivas C 7-2 junior

Key reserves

30 Tobe Awaka F 6-8 senior

3 Anthony Dell’Orso F 6-6 senior

2 Dwayne Aristode F 6-8 freshman

UCF

Probable starters

2 Riley Kugel G 6-5 senior

1 Themus Fulks G 6-2 senior

4 Jamichael Stillwell F 6-8 senior

99 Jordan Burks F 6-9 junior

7 John Bol C 7-2 sophomore

Key reserves

11 Carmelo Pacheco F 6-5 junior

22 Chris Johnson F 6-5 junior

35 Devan Cambridge F 6-6 senior

HOW THEY MATCH UP

How they got here: Arizona went 16-2 to win the Big 12 regular-season title and earn the No. 1 Big 12 Tournament seed. UCF went 9-9 to finish in a four-way tie for seventh place and earned the No. 8 seed based on tiebreakers, then beat Cincinnati 66-65 in overtime during a second-round game Wednesday.

This season: Center Motiejus Krivas had 17 points and 12 rebounds while Jaden Bradley scored 23 points and hit 9 of 10 free throws he took over the final 77 seconds to lead Arizona to an 84-77 win over UCF on Jan., 17 in Orlando. Forward Koa Peat was limited to four points while battling foul trouble, but freshman guard Brayden Burries added 18 points on 8-for-14 shooting and big man Tobe Awaka collected 10 points and nine rebounds.

Series history: Arizona never played UCF before the Wildcats joined the Big 12 last season but is now 2-0 against the Knighrts after beating them in Florida this season and last season at McKale, when the Wildcats had five players score in double figures in an 88-80 win. UCF didn’t become a Division I program until 1985.

What’s new with the Knights: After a 6-3 start in Big 12 play that included a win over Kansas and a close call with Arizona, the Knights dropped six of nine to end the regular season on a rough note, nearly losing a first-round bye in the conference tournament and putting themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

They lost to Baylor and Oklahoma State at home, then at West Virginia on March 9 to end the regular season, but skidded into the No. 8 Big 12 seed thanks to tiebreakers. Their win over Cincinnati is expected to earn them an NCAA Tournament bid regardless of Thursday's game.

UCF still has a balanced offensive attack with four players averaging in double figures and starts the same five players that started against Arizona. Guards Themus Fulks and Riley Kugel entered the Big 12 Tournament on a hot note, with Kugel averaging 20.0 points over his previous five games while hitting 9 of 18 3-pointers, and Kugel averaged 18.8 points over the same five games. Kugel had 15 against Cincinnati on Wednesday.

Fulks entered the Big 12 tournament averaging 6.8 assists, ranking second in the Big 12 and 10th nationally. Stillwell posted his eighth double double when he had 17 points and 15 rebounds against Cincinnati.

For the season, UCF ranks 39th in overall offensive efficiency but just 105 in defensive efficiency. They shoot a respectable 36.8% from 3-point range but 3s make up only 34.4% of their field goals.

Key players

UCF – Themus Fulks

A fifth-year point guard now playing for his fourth school, Fulks is ending his college career on a high individual note. While he only scored four points against Cincinnati on Wednesday, when he had seven assists, he has proven he can score -- with 30 points on 9-for-14 shooting against Arizona and three games of 22 or more points in his last six.

Arizona – Jaden Bradley

UA’s steady floor leader has filled in offensive holes wherever needed all season, as when he helped the Wildcats hold off UCF in Orlando by getting to the line and hitting clutch free throws. Or he can take a back seat as he did at Colorado on March 7, when Brayden Burries had 31 points and Bradley had no points – but six assists and four rebounds.

SIDELINES

Ancient history

The only time Arizona played UCF was nearly two months ago, and Knights coach Johnny Dawkins said he didn’t remember much about that game.

“It was a long time ago,” Dawkins said. “I know they’re a terrific team. Wery talented and well coached.”

To be fair, Dawkins had just finished coaching his team to an overtime win over Cincinnati and said he would soon zero in on scouting the Wildcats. What he likely found was that while the Wildcats led by up to 15 points in the first half and 13 in the second half of that game, his Knights kept the Wildcats from running away with it.

UCF cut it to 79-73 with 34 seconds left after UCF's Chris Johnson hit a 3-pointer and Anthony Dell’Orso turned the ball over. But Bradley’s free throws down the stretch protected a lead UA never fully lost after the first three minutes of the game.

“Tough game,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said upon arriving in Kansas City. “They're tough to play there. I thought our guys went in and played really well and kind of weathered a few comeback storms. It was a great Road victory.

Battle tested

The Knights were briefly ranked at No. 25 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll after beating Kansas on Jan. 3 and were still 14-2 heading into that first matchup with Arizona.

Since then, they have gone 7-8. But, when asked what has changed, or what he has learned over that period, Dawkins said nothing, really.

“I didn't learn anything because I know the league is great,” Dawkins said. “Think about the teams in our league, most of the teams went through different stretches, patches where they were winning a lot, then of all a sudden they're losing a lot. We definitely were nowhere near the only team that went through something like that. And it's because of the level of competition.”

Bubble popped?

Cincinnati’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament field dipped considerably after its loss to UCF, but Bearcats coach Wes Miller tried to make a case.

Cincinnati fell to 18-15, is ranked 43rd in Kenpom, and 46 in the NET, with a “wins above bubble” rating of negative 0.91. In ESPN’s updated Bracketology report Wednesday, Cincinnati was listed as a “next four out” team.

“I'm not in the room with the selection committee, so I don't understand all the guidelines of it,” Miller said. “But if it's about the best teams at this point, we're one of the best teams in the country. We're an NCAA Tournament team.

“If it's about overall resumé, I'm sure that you can make some arguments that we're not. But we've won seven out of our last 10 Big 12 games…. When's the last time somebody won seven out of 10 in the Big 12 and didn't play in the NCAA Tournament? Honestly?

“Again, I don't know what goes on. I certainly feel that we belong. … certainly we'll hold out hope, but I realize (losing to UCF) was difficult. I think everybody in our locker room understands that.”

Numbers game

9- Arizona conference tournament wins in 11 games under fifth-year coach Tommy Lloyd, counting three Pac-12 Tournaments and last season’s Big 12 Tournament.

38 –UCF’s national ranking entering Wednesday in “wins above bubble” (1.84), a metric of how many more wins a team has compared to what an average bubble team would have against the same schedule. No team last season with over a 1.25 WAB at the same point missed the tournament.

74.3 – Free throw shooting percentage of 7-foot-2 UCF center John Bol.

-- Bruce Pascoe