Each week throughout the football season, we're taking an in-depth look at the Arizona Wildcats from a statistical perspective. Here’s the latest edition of “Cats Stats.”
Arizona defense making progress after 'one downfall'
Arizona Wildcats safety Scottie Young Jr. runs back a pick-six to help ice a game against Cal during the fourth quarter.
Mike Christy / Arizona Daily Star
The Arizona Wildcats are halfway through Kevin Sumlin’s first season and seemingly stuck in neutral.
Arizona is 3-3 overall. The Wildcats lost their first two games, won the next two and split the past two. At varying times, the offense, defense and special teams have excelled. Rarely have all three happened for four straight quarters.
Editor’s note: Each week throughout the football season, we’ll take an in-depth look at the Arizona Wildcats from a statistical perspective.
Despite the ebbs and flows, the players believe they’re trending in the right direction entering the start of the second half Friday night at Utah.
“The one downfall we had was Houston. Every other game I feel like we’re learning, we’re developing,” sophomore linebacker Tony Fields II said. “We’re getting better and better as a defense — really, as a team.”
To determine whether that’s true, we decided to revisit the five topics previously broached in “Cats Stats.” Generally speaking, the numbers don’t lie.
1. QB rushing attempts
Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate battled an ankle injury for much of the first half of the season.
Kelly Presnell / Arizona Daily Star
Key numbers then: UA quarterback Khalil Tate had only eight rushing attempts in the opener against BYU, his lowest total for a game in which he played three-plus quarters. We examined the year-to-year rushing attempts of seven iconic dual-threat quarterbacks from the past 20 years and concluded that most of them continued to run the ball about the same amount after their breakout seasons.
What’s happened since: Tate rolled his left ankle against Houston, an injury that has bothered him periodically since.
Over a three-game stretch — against Houston, Oregon State and Southern Utah — Tate had only 15 rushing attempts. They netted 18 yards.
The Houston game was such a lopsided affair, it might not have mattered what Tate did. The Southern Utah and Oregon State games were one-sided the other way. Tate passed for a career-high 349 yards with five touchdowns against the Thunderbirds and had two more TD passes against the Beavers, who yielded 451 rushing yards to Wildcats other than Tate.
Things changed a bit the past two weeks. Tate had a season-high 13 rushes against USC, netting 38 yards. He had eight rushes against Cal for 40, including a season-long 17-yarder. Add those up, and it’s 21 carries for 78 yards — compared to 23 for 32 the first four weeks.
Tate’s average over the past two weeks — 10.5 attempts — is about what we expected under Noel Mazzone. It’s within the range of what Brett Hundley and Trevor Knight did under Mazzone — although far below Tate’s average of 16.9 attempts in the eight games in which he played three-plus quarters last season.
Tony Ellison's three touchdown catches lead Arizona receivers.
Mike Christy / Arizona Daily Star
Key numbers then: Through their first two games, the Wildcats averaged .243 points per play — exacerbated by the Houston game, in which they ran 100 plays but scored only 18 points (including a safety). Arizona averaged .591 points per play in 2017. The national average last season for FBS teams was .412.
What’s happened since: In the four subsequent games, the Wildcats have scored at a rate closer to what they did last year. They have run 257 plays and have 141 points. That equates to .549 points per play.
For the purpose of simplicity, we did not include defensive or special-teams touchdowns when examining points-per-play percentages in the original piece. The Wildcats’ percentage would be lower, of course, if their kickoff-return touchdown against Southern Utah and their pair of defensive scores against Cal were excluded from the equation.
Keeping all that stuff in, here are Arizona’s points per play for the past four games:
vs. Southern Utah: 1.033
vs. Oregon State: .515
vs. USC: .286
vs. Cal: .407
Overall, Arizona is averaging .423 points per play. The national average for FBS teams so far is .444.
In Pac-12 play, the Wildcats are averaging .399 points per play. In league games last year, their average was .580.
So while they have improved in this area, the Cats’ efficiency remains well below the standard they set in 2017.
Progress made? Yes.
Cats Stats: What's causing the Arizona Wildcats' offensive inefficiency?
Wildcats could score 'in the 40s or 50s' once offense starts clicking
Arizona's offense sputtered to just 18 points in 100 plays at Houston.
Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle
The Arizona Wildcats ran 100 offensive plays against Houston. How rare is that? Extremely.
Know what’s even rarer? That Arizona ran that many plays and scored only 18 points.
The outcome at TDECU Stadium spoke to how inefficiently the Wildcats’ offense has been operating. As Arizona continues to prepare for this week’s game against Southern Utah, we’ll show you exactly how inefficient it has been — and explore some of the reasons the offense has stalled.
Editor’s note: Each week throughout the football season, we’ll take an in-depth look at the Arizona Wildcats from a statistical perspective.
Let’s start with those 100 plays. The Houston game marked just the sixth time in Wildcats history that they have reached the century mark. All have come since 2012, when Rich Rodriguez became the coach and brought his version of the up-tempo spread to Tucson.
Arizona averaged 69.8 plays per game last season. The national leader in 2017 was Syracuse, at 85.6. One hundred plays is a lotta plays.
Each of the previous five times they hit or surpassed 100 — against South Carolina State and Stanford in 2012, and against Cal, USC and Boise State in 2014 — the Wildcats scored at least 26 points. Their average points per game: 41.8.
Arizona averaged .403 points per play in those games. That’s just about in line with the national average for FBS teams last season: .412. So if they had what would be considered an average day against the Cougars, the Wildcats would have scored about 41 points.
They have been well below average through two games. Arizona is averaging .243 points per play, which ranks in the bottom third of the country. And that includes the safety against Houston, which bumps that number up from .231.
(For the purpose of this piece, we’re not removing defensive or special-teams scores from the calculations. In most cases, over the course of a full season, they make a negligible impact on the numbers.)
That figure — .243 — represents a startling drop from last season. The 2017 Wildcats averaged .591 points per play, among the best ratios in the nation.
Asked Tuesday how many points he would expect Arizona to score while running 100 plays, senior receiver Shawn Poindexter said: “Shoot. With the ability that our offense has … we could score anywhere in the 40s or 50s once everything gets clicking.”
Poindexter then was asked what’s holding the offense back.
“There’s a lot of things that go into it,” he said. “I’m not going to go into details, but we’re going to get it cleaned up.”
Here are some of the biggest factors:
Subpar QB play
Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle
Whether it’s the adjustment to a new system, the ankle injury he suffered early vs. Houston or something else, junior quarterback Khalil Tate isn’t playing well.
Tate isn’t running the ball often or effectively, netting a scant 22 yards on 15 rushing attempts. Take out the one time he’s been sacked, and it’s 34 yards on 14 carries.
Tate averaged 128.3 rushing yards in 11 games last season. That includes the NAU and Houston games, in which he made only brief relief appearances, and the ASU game, when he got hurt on the last play of the first half and barely played in the second.
Tate completed 62.0 percent of his passes last season with a 14-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This year he’s at 51.9 with 1-2 TD-INT ratio. His average per attempt has fallen from 8.9 to 6.8.
Yes, it’s a small sample size. Yes, there are mitigating circumstances, including Arizona playing from behind the majority of the time. And yes, there are 10 other guys on the field with Tate, including an inexperienced offensive line.
But it always comes back to the quarterback. Through two games, Tate hasn’t approached the lofty standard he set last season.
Missed opportunities
Arizona drove into scoring range on its first possession of the season. A holding penalty on first-and-10 from the 25-yard line pushed the Wildcats back. They had to settle for a field-goal attempt, which the Cougars blocked.
On the next possession, Arizona advanced to the BYU 41. On third-and-5, Tate took that lone sack, losing 12 yards. The Wildcats had to punt.
On the first possession against Houston, Arizona quickly advanced to its 47. On the next play, Tate couldn’t push off on his ankle and went down for a loss of 3 yards. On the play after that, he threw an interception.
In the second quarter, the Wildcats faced fourth-and-1 at the UH 26. Gary Brightwell took a pitch to the right but bobbled the ball, resulting in a 9-yard loss.
Late in the second quarter, Arizona reached the Houston 35. A holding penalty turned third-and-7 into third-and-17. The Wildcats ended up punting.
Early in the third quarter, Arizona advanced to the UH 36. On third-and-7, Tate threw another interception.
The final indignity came late in the fourth. A 46-yard pass from Tate to Tony Ellison set up first-and-goal at the 1. The Wildcats couldn’t score.
Interestingly, that’s the only time Arizona has failed to produce points in seven trips into the red zone.
Puzzling play-calling
Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle
If the quarterback is the lowest-hanging fruit for criticism, play-calling is the next lowest. But some of what we’ve seen the first two weeks is just too inexplicable to overlook.
The BYU game plan had pundits and fans scratching their heads. Offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone called few, if any, designed quarterback runs. Tate repeatedly threw the ball downfield, with minimal success.
Against Houston, Arizona faced third-and-5 from its 33 in the second quarter. The play: an inside handoff to 5-6, 184-pound tailback J.J. Taylor, who found no running room against a Houston defensive front headlined by All-American Ed Oliver. Taylor was tackled for no gain.
On the goal-to-go sequence, Arizona ran four straight times between the tackles out of the shotgun. Three attempts were by running backs; one was by Tate.
Mazzone didn’t try to get Tate to the perimeter — he seemed to be feeling better on a 2-yard keeper for a TD around left end earlier in the quarter — or attempt a play-action pass. UA coach Kevin Sumlin said there was a purpose behind the play-calling.
“We ran the same play,” he said. “It was kind of a point just to make sure our team understands it. Right or wrong, that’s what we wanted to do.
“Hopefully it’s a learning experience, because things are going to happen down there. When you when need to get a yard, you need to get a yard. That didn’t happen.”
In Mazzone’s defense, Sumlin said the staff had to scrap much of its game plan, which included more Tate runs, after he got hurt. It’s unclear to what extent, if any, Tate will be limited this week and beyond.
This much is certain: No matter how many snaps he takes, they need to produce points at a greater rate.
3. Third-down defense
Kelly Presnell / Arizona Daily Star
Key numbers then: Heading into Pac-12 play, Arizona was allowing opponents to convert 44.2 percent of their third downs. That rate, which ranked 109th in the nation, represented a slight improvement from the defense’s first two seasons under coordinator Marcel Yates. However, the Wildcats were yielding a 41.4 percent conversion rate when foes faced third-and-7 or longer, significantly higher than what should be expected in those situations.
What’s happened since: In the past three games, Arizona’s opponents have converted 43.8 percent of their third downs — about the same as the first three games.
But in third-and-long situations, the UA defense has taken a significant step forward. Opponents have converted only 29.4 percent of their third downs when needing 7 or more yards.
Additionally, the defense is creating more third-and-long scenarios. Opponents averaged 9.7 third-and-long attempts in the first three games — and 11.3 in the past three. Opponents needed 7 or more yards on 55.8 percent of their third downs in the first three games, 70.8 in the past three.
Arizona is doing a better job on first, second and third downs over the past three games. The Wildcats also are faring better on fourth down. Opponents converted 8 of 10 fourth downs the first three weeks, just 2 of 6 the past three.
Scottie Young Jr. (19) and the Wildcats combined for a season-high four takeaways during their win over Cal.
Mike Christy / Arizona Daily Star
Key numbers then: Arizona had only one takeaway through four games. The Wildcats were one of five FBS teams that had just one. Up to that point, they were 4-14 under Yates when forcing one or zero turnovers and 8-3 when they forced two or more.
What’s happened since: The turnovers have come in bunches. Arizona took the ball away from USC three times and Cal four times. Two of the takeaways against the Golden Bears ended in touchdowns for the Wildcats. They were the difference in the game.
Despite a turnover margin of plus-2 in each contest, Arizona was able to win only one of them. Updating the records, the Wildcats are now 9-4 under Yates when forcing two or more turnovers.
The piece on takeaways also examined Arizona’s turnover luck, which tends to balance out over time. Entering the USC game, UA opponents had fumbled five times. The Wildcats didn’t recover any of them. Since then, they have recovered four of six opponent fumbles.
Arizona also wasn’t procuring as many interceptions as it should have. Through four games, the Wildcats had defensed 20 passes but intercepted only one. Their 5 percent success rate was well below the standard of about 22 percent.
Since then, Arizona has defensed 10 passes and intercepted three — a 30 percent clip.
Key numbers then: Entering the Cal game, Tate had attempted 20 or fewer passes eight times. He had a 68.7 percent completion rate; a 13-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio; and averaged 12.56 yards per attempt in those games. The Wildcats’ record: 7-1. In the six games in which Tate threw more than 20 times, he had a 52.0 percent completion rate; an 11-8 TD-INT ratio; and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt. Arizona’s record: 0-6.
What’s happened since: Tate busted the trend against Cal, although there are asterisks attached.
The junior completed 15 of 25 passes for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It was just the second time in his UA career that Tate completed 60 percent or better when throwing more than 20 passes. The other instance came against Purdue in the 2017 Foster Farms Bowl.
That’s all good. But it should be noted that 12 of Tate’s 15 completions came on throws at or near the line of scrimmage; they were essentially an extension of the run game. The others were a 15-yard slant to Cedric Peterson, a 13-yard screen to J.J. Taylor and a 31-yard pass to Tony Ellison.
Tate notched his first win when attempting more than 20 passes. The result, however, further exposed the fallacy of quarterback wins. Tate didn’t deserve a victory against Cal any more than he deserved losses against Arizona State and Purdue last season.
Progress made? Yes.
Cats Stats: Numbers reveal true secret to success for Khalil Tate, Arizona offense
Cats’ passing efficiency sterling when Tate's attempts are limited
Falling behind by double digits against USC, Arizona QB Khalil Tate completed fewer than half of his 33 passes.
Kelly Presnell / Arizona Daily Star
When it comes to Khalil Tate’s passing attempts, less is more.
When he attempts 20 or fewer passes in a game, Tate is a much more efficient quarterback — and Arizona usually wins. When he attempts more than that, his efficiency plummets — as does the Wildcats’ winning percentage.
We’ll get into all the specifics shortly. In the process, we’ll take a deep dive into the games in which Tate threw more than 20 times to determine if there’s a cause and effect.
Editor’s note: Each week throughout the football season, we’ll take an in-depth look at the Arizona Wildcats from a statistical perspective.
Before all that, two quick acknowledgements: (1) Teams tend to pass more when they’re behind, and that does skew the numbers; (2) QB winning percentage is an imperfect measurement of QB “success.” We’ll tackle those issues later in the piece.
But first, the numbers. We looked at every game Tate has played since the Colorado game last year, when he had his breakthrough and became Arizona’s starter.
In the eight games in which he has attempted 20 or fewer passes, Tate has a 68.7 percent completion rate, a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and averages 12.56 yards per attempt. The Wildcats are 7-1 in those games, with the lone loss coming at Arizona State last season. Tate was hurt at the end of the first half and barely played in the second. Arizona was leading 24-14 at the time.
In the six games in which Tate has thrown more than 20 times, he has a 52.0 percent completion rate, an 11-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio and averages 6.75 yards per attempt. The Wildcats are 0-6 in those games.
In the eight games with 20 or fewer attempts, Tate has completed more than 50 percent of his passes every time. In the six games with more than 20, he has completed 50 percent or less half the time.
One more note on those figures before we move on: Tate has 67 more yards — 1,444 to 1,377 — on 115 attempts in the eight games with 20 or fewer than on 204 attempts in the six games with more than 20.
Obviously, it’s harder to pass when the other team knows it’s coming. That’s inevitably what happens when you fall behind by a significant margin, and that is what happened in the majority of games in which Tate threw more than 20 times. Let’s take a closer look:
USC, 2017
Mark J. Terrill / The Associated Press '17
The Trojans led 21-6 at halftime and 28-6 early in the third quarter. Tate rallied Arizona to a 35-35 tie in the fourth before USC pulled away for a 49-35 win. Tate finished 14 of 31 for 146 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He attempted 12 passes in the first half, 19 in the second.
Oregon, 2017
Chris Pietsch / AP Photo '17
The Ducks led 28-21 at halftime and 35-21 midway through the third quarter. It was a one-score game — 35-28 — entering the fourth. The Wildcats failed to score in the final period, when Tate attempted 16 passes. He finished 18 of 35 for 159 yards with one TD and two picks in a 48-28 setback.
Purdue, 2017
Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP Photo '17
The Boilermakers led 31-14 at halftime of the Foster Farms Bowl. Tate led a rally that put the Wildcats ahead 35-31 with 3:21 remaining. Purdue scored the winning touchdown with 1:44 left. This game is an outlier in multiple ways. Tate actually attempted fewer passes in the second half (12) than in the first (14). This was also by far his most efficient game with more than 20 attempts. He finished 17 of 26 for 302 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.
BYU, 2018
Kelly Presnell / Arizona Daily Star
The Wildcats led 10-7 at halftime but trailed 28-10 at the end of the third quarter. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns made it 28-23, but Arizona couldn’t get the ball back. Tate attempted 20 passes in the first half, six in the third quarter, eight in the fourth. He finished 17 of 34 for 197 yards with one touchdown and no picks.
Houston, 2018
The Cougars raced to a 31-0 halftime lead and expanded it to 38-0 early in the third quarter. Tate threw a career-high 45 times, including 35 over the final three periods. The Wildcats never got closer than 20 points in a 45-18 loss. Tate finished 24 of 45 for 341 yards with no TDs and two interceptions.
USC, 2018
Kelly Presnell / Arizona Daily Star
The Trojans led 17-0 at halftime and 24-0 early in the third quarter. As happened against BYU, Arizona made it a one-score game late in the fourth quarter but couldn’t get the ball back. USC won 24-20. Tate finished 16 of 33 for 232 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, with 26 of those attempts coming in the final three quarters.
Rushing makes the Arizona offense tick
Arizona offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and QB Khalil Tate continue to work through some stuff.
Kelly Presnell / Arizona Daily Star
In all six games, Arizona trailed by double figures at some point before the fourth quarter. It stands to reason that Tate’s efficiency would suffer under those circumstances.
It’s important to note, though, that the Wildcats did not abandon the run in those games. They averaged 42.2 rushing attempts. In the eight games in which Tate attempted 20 or fewer passes, they averaged 47 rushes.
The more pertinent stat is Arizona’s average per carry in those two scenarios. In the six games in which Tate threw more than 20 times, the Wildcats averaged 3.6 yards per rush. In the other eight games, they averaged 8.0. The former produced 151.7 rushing yards per game, the latter 377.1.
UA coach Kevin Sumlin has been on board for only half of the six losses suffered in which Tate threw more than 20 times. But Sumlin has come to understand what truly makes the Arizona offense go.
“For us to be successfully offensively, we’ve got to be able to continue to run the ball and take the pressure off our receivers and our quarterbacks,” Sumlin said. “That’s a point of emphasis for us.”
This piece should not be interpreted as an indictment of Tate’s ability. Losses are never completely the fault of the quarterback. If Arizona had gotten a stop against Purdue, that game would have gone down as a win for Tate.
Rather, what the data reveals is a clear formula for offensive success for this iteration of UA football.
Whether it’s Tate handing the ball off or taking it himself, Arizona is at its best when it’s running effectively. As talented as Tate is, if you can stuff the Wildcats’ run game, you’ve got a very good chance to beat them.
Each week throughout the football season, we’ll take an in-depth look at the Arizona Wildcats from a statistical perspective. Here’s the latest edition of “Cats Stats.”
