When the Bills throw: Josh Allen got them to this point, and there’s no reason to think the team will stop throwing it now. The Colts’ secondary will be without cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (concussion). Even with receivers Stefon Diggs (oblique) and Cole Beasley (knee) listed as questionable, the Bills have enough talent at receiver to stress the Colts’ defense by spreading it out. Excluding last week against the weak Jacksonville passing attack, Indianapolis had allowed 23 completions of at least 15 air yards in the previous four weeks. Those completions went for 614 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s bad news for the Colts, because Allen is on an absolute heater right now. His 32-yard touchdown to John Brown in Week 17 had just a 19.5% chance of being completed, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, making it the second-most improbable completion of the season for Allen. He finished the year with a completion percentage over expected of 4.6%, which ranked second in the NFL. He is making throws that maybe only one or two other quarterbacks in the NFL can make. EDGE: Bills.
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When the Bills run: Don’t expect the Bills to place a heavy emphasis on this against the Colts. Indianapolis ranked second in the NFL against the run in the regular season, allowing just 90.5 yards per game. The Colts’ best defensive player is linebacker Darius Leonard. He finished with 132 tackles, which ranked eighth in the NFL. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who is listed as questionable, is a close second. He is an elite pass rusher (team-leading 9.5 sacks), but can also stop the run. Colts safety Khari Willis had 37 tackles in run support, which was just one behind Leonard for the team lead. The Bills finished 20th in the league in rushing. EDGE: Colts.
When the Colts pass: At 39 years old, the Bills probably aren’t going to be able to confuse Colts quarterback Philip Rivers too much. He’s seen just about every defensive look. Rivers lacks mobility, which is an understatement, but compensates by getting rid of the ball quickly. According to Pro Football Focus, Rivers’ average time to throw of 2.35 seconds was third fastest among 29 quarterbacks with at least 348 drop backs this season. That, along with a strong offensive line, led to Rivers being sacked just 19 times. Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton was a fantasy bust much of the season, but came on at the end with five touchdowns over the last six games. Rookie Michael Pittman and slot receiver Zach Pascal make up the rest of a solid, but not spectacular, top three receivers. EDGE: Bills.
When the Colts run: There is a reason Indianapolis used a second-round draft pick on Jonathan Taylor. The rookie running back from Wisconsin has been explosive late in the season, including a 253-yard game against the Jaguars in Week 17. Over the final seven weeks of the season, Taylor had 25 runs of 10-plus yards and six runs of 20-plus yards, both of which trailed only Tennessee’s Derrick Henry. Overall, Taylor rushed for 741 yards in that stretch, again second only to Henry. Taylor’s average of 5.0 yards per carry finished tied for ninth in the NFL, but of those ahead of him on the list, only Green Bay’s Aaron Jones (5.5) and Henry (5.4) had more than 200 attempts (Taylor had 232). Taylor can cook – he reached 21.25 mph on his 56-yard run against Jacksonville last week, according to Next Gen Stats, and reached 20-plus mph on six touches this season – two more than any other running back. EDGE: Colts.
Special teams: Both teams have good rookie kickers. Rodrigo Blankenship went 32 of 37 on field goals in the regular season, including 12 of 13 in outdoor games. Blankenship, though, went just 1 of 3 on field goals of 50-plus yards. The Bills’ Tyler Bass went 28 of 34, but hasn’t missed a field goal since Week 9. The Bills led the NFL with an average of 27.6 yards per kickoff return, while the Colts were close behind, tied for fourth at 25.8 yards. The Bills were fourth in average punt return, 11.9 yards, while the Colts finished tied for 10th at 10.1 yards per return. EDGE: Bills.
Coaching: This is a new challenge for Sean McDermott. The Bills, like most teams, love playing the “underdogs” card. That’s not available to them now. Vegas has them as a touchdown favorite. The Bills proved to be one of the NFL’s best teams with a 13-win regular season, and they enter the playoffs as arguably the hottest. Much is expected of this team, starting Saturday. Colts coach Frank Reich is gladly using the “underdogs” card, even if he’s got a Hall of Fame quarterback, as McDermott pointed out, and won 11 games. Both coaches are two of the best in the game. Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is potentially coaching his last game for the team – it would be a surprise if he didn’t land a head-coaching job after this season. Daboll is locked in with Allen right now, producing some special results. EDGE: Bills.
Prediction: Bills 34, Colts 20.
