Is Tua Tagovailoa good enough to go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen for the next decade?
A lot of Buffalo Bills fans think they already know the answer (no).
News Sports writers predict the outcome of Sunday's Bills-Dolphins game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Fla. The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite.
You have to give the Miami Dolphins credit for this: They have put enough good pieces around their 23-year-old quarterback to get a clear answer to the question by the end of this season.
The Bills’ defense will have to contend with a vastly upgraded Miami receiving corps on Sunday.
“A lot of athleticism, a lot of playmaking ability on that side of the football,” said Bills safety Jordan Poyer.
"Here we are in 2021, and Bills-Dolphins is pretty hot again for a couple reasons," writes Mark Gaughan.
The big addition is the No. 6 overall pick in the draft, Jaylen Waddle, Tagovailoa’s former college teammate at Alabama.
Waddle didn’t run the 40-yard dash before the draft because he was recovering from ankle surgery, but there’s a video of him from 2019 running stride-for-stride with Henry Ruggs in the 40. Ruggs won by a nose. Ruggs ran 4.27 before being drafted 12th overall by the Raiders in 2020. Waddle was timed by GPS at 21.9 mph on a play against Georgia last season. That would rank in the top 10 of the NFL in any season.
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So let’s call Waddle a 4.30 sprinter.
Miami paid $10.6 million for one year to sign ex-Texan Will Fuller in free agency. He runs 4.32, and he will make his debut Sunday vs. Buffalo after sitting out last week on a suspension.
Miami’s other outside receiver is DeVante Parker, who’s 6-foot-2 5/8, 209 pounds and runs 4.45. Parker’s only problem is staying healthy. In his lone full season (2019), he produced 1,202 yards. He’s healthy this week.
There's been a resounding theme for the Buffalo Bills the last few days: it’s never as bad as it seems, and it’s never as good as it seems.
Then there’s Mike Gesicki, who ranked fourth in receiving yards by tight ends last year and went 8 for 130 against Buffalo in Week 2 last season.
“We’ve got a lot of weapons,” Miami offensive coordinator George Godsey said on Tuesday. “Moving them around, getting them open versus certain matchups, and really the catch-and-run element, especially with Will, is a factor with his speed.”
Waddle had four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown against New England last week. He looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. He will play in the slot against Taron Johnson.
“He’s a very explosive slot receiver,” Poyer said. “He’s good with the ball in his hands, very explosive, makes guys miss. We’re going to have to have 11 guys running to the football.”
New England, as usual, did a good job of making Tagovailoa be patient. He passed for 202 yards in Miami’s 17-16 win.
"Miami is also famous for post-Patriots letdowns, just 2-11 against the spread since 2013," writes Marc Lawrence.
“If you look at the Patriots' defense, they try to keep everything in front of them,” Tagovailoa said. “They try to minimize a lot of the chunk plays, if you will. Whatever they gave us, that’s what we were out there to take.”
So that’s the challenge for the Bills. Protect deep and hope Waddle and Parker don’t kill you all day underneath on slants.
“I think he’s got a lot more control of the offense,” Poyer said of Tagovailoa. “I think his decision making is a lot quicker. I think he understands his scheme a little bit better and he’s making some really good throws. It’s a good offense. We’re going to have to be prepared.”
Tagovailoa isn’t a big man at 6 feet, and he doesn’t have a cannon arm.
The book on him is he’s a rhythm, accurate passer. He has a quick drop-back, plants his foot and delivers. He plays within the structure of the offense.
He was not good under pressure last year, ranking 30th among starting QBs with a passer rating of 45.6. He was just 1 of 6 under pressure in Week 1 vs. New England.
Was Tua’s draft stock over-inflated due to the all-world talent around him at Alabama? He will have to perform better under pressure to make that question disappear.
The Bills were sloppy, the play-calls were suspect and head coach Sean McDermott made a couple of head-scratchers, Pete Rosen says.
Bills' respect for Steelers. You might have noticed the Bills didn’t use many play-action run fakes in the loss to Pittsburgh. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll received some second-guessing, including in this space, for not doing enough to help the offensive line block the Steelers’ monsters. But it’s not like Daboll wasn’t worried about the Steelers rush or didn’t account for it in the game plan. He was and he did. The Bills led the NFL in play action last year, running it on 36% of pass plays, according to Football Outsiders. By The News’ count, Josh Allen play-faked on just nine of 60 dropbacks last week (15%).
“You can turn your back and play-action stuff, and you’ve got a good rush, and even though you’re play action, they might get back to you with your back turned,” Daboll said. “You can keep it all spread out in front of you, so you can see the whole defense, and try to get the ball out as quick as you can to playmakers.”
None of Allen’s play-action fakes were from under center. They all were quick fakes to the running back while in shotgun formation.
“We weren’t interested in holding the ball too long,” Daboll said. “We were trying to get it out of our hands and get it into the guys’ hands so they could catch and run. The longer you have to let a play develop and a receiver get downfield, the more the pass rush is coming. So, we were trying to balance that.”
Look for the Bills to go back to a higher percentage of play fakes going forward.
The 30,000-foot view. Miami was rumored to be one of the teams inquiring about a trade for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson. The expectation is the Texans will deal Watson some time before the 2022 NFL Draft, once the impact of the sexual harassment allegations against him is better understood.
If Tagovailoa underperforms this season, the Dolphins will be in position to bid on Watson. Miami has two first-round draft picks in 2023, thanks to a trade with San Francisco prior to this year’s draft, which allowed the 49ers to move up to take quarterback Trey Lance.
Stats for the road. Miami led the NFL in turnovers last year and recovered fumbles at the third-highest percentage in the NFL. Odds are the latter stat is not likely to continue, but Miami recovered 2 of 4 vs. the Pats. ... Last year when Gesicki was on the field, Miami passed 76% of the time, according to Sharp Football. In the red zone, Miami targets Parker and Gesicki. ... Cornerback Xavien Howard led the NFL in interceptions last season with 10. He’s great at tracking deep balls, with four INTs on deep targets last year. He hasn’t allowed a deep TD as the nearest defender since 2017. ... Poyer said he drinks a gallon and a half of water a day the week leading up to a game in Miami, plus he takes two hydration IVs before the game.
