Realignment roils the West Coast (again): Tracing the impact of a wave that began five years ago with the SEC

The Gauchos became the 33rd school to join the Western wave of conference realignment, announcing Monday that they will move from the Big West to the West Coast Conference in the summer of 2027.

The surreal series of changes has impacted six conferences and can be traced to a single point: July 26, 2021, the day Texas and Oklahoma notified the Big 12 of their intention to join the SEC.

That thunderbolt triggered the Big Ten’s westward expansion, the implosion and rebirth of the Pac-12, the Mountain West’s cross-country countermoves and a slew of subsequent expansion raids across the Division I leagues in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.

Cal and Stanford are in the ACC as a result of Texas and Oklahoma.

Texas State will join the Pac-12 as a result of Texas and Oklahoma.

Northern Illinois is heading to the Mountain West ... Sacramento State is moving to the Mid-American ... UC Santa Barbara and UC San Diego are joining the private, faith-based schools of the WCC — all because butterflies flapped their wings 1,725 days ago in Austin and Norman.

(The full list of changes to Western conferences is below.)

The chain reaction could continue, but identifying the location and timing of the next move is a fool’s quest because the rules of the game are highly fluid.

“(It's) really hard to predict the future in this current environment,” Big Sky commissioner Tom Wistrcill told the Hotline earlier this week via text message.

“The difficult finances in collegiate athletics have driven challenging decisions in the short term that have long-term implications."

At its core, conference realignment is driven by the relentless pursuit of every available media dollar. But the process has unfolded against an unprecedented backdrop of disruption and change to a century-old system — from the transfer portal and NIL to postseason expansion and revenue sharing, from the enrollment cliff facing universities to the upheaval in the media ecosystem.

College sports is experiencing the awkward teenage years, full of acne and BO, and will become a mature enterprise at some point. The process could take three years, five years or 10 years. Nobody knows when this phase will end or what shape the next iteration will take.

The only given is upheaval, although WCC commissioner Stu Jackson offered a few clues earlier this week when welcoming UC Santa Barbara.

The Gauchos became the fourth school added to the conference in the wake of departures by BYU (to the Big 12) and Gonzaga (to the Pac-12). The WCC previously invited Denver, Seattle and UC San Diego and will have 12 members in time for the 2027-28 academic year.

"Being a nine-member conference leaves a conference vulnerable and susceptible to not only financial disadvantages but also instability," Jackson told reporters on a video conference.

"It became the aggressive mandate of our presidents to grow our conference to 12 members."

How did the WCC determine its expansion targets?

That, folks, is the clue to understanding what comes next.

"I would say there's been a shift in the industry," Jackson added. "Even as recently as five years ago, the networks like ESPN, CBS Sports Network and others, there was a real effort to try to get volume of events ...

"That has shifted. It shifted to a place where the networks are now interested in what I would term as premium content. Put another way: matchups. High-level matchups.

"So when you add schools to your conference, that has to be one consideration. Who are you adding? What do they bring? What's their brand? Because at the end of the day, if we can pit a UC Santa Barbara against a Santa Clara, that's potentially a premium matchup, and that's what they care about.

"It's not necessarily the size of the conference. Size of the conference really speaks to scheduling. It's just easier with 12. It's easier with an even number.

"But with our broadcast partners, it's the brands that you bring to them that they're most interested in.”

Jackson's comments reflected his strategic priorities — the WCC's media rights deal with ESPN expires next spring — but the point works for college sports writ large.

The Big Ten and SEC will define the industry's next chapter and do so with big brands in mind.

That could mean each conference grows to 20 or 24 members in the 2030s by raiding the ACC and Big 12 for their most valuable football schools.

It could mean the Big Ten and SEC form their own club, along with Notre Dame and a handful of other schools.

It could mean the biggest football brands in the two conferences break away to create a super league.

Or maybe the next chapter means status quo for football, but the Olympic sports reorganize along regional lines.

Whatever happens, the downstream impact will be as momentous and lasting as the July 2021 aftershocks.

"The end is not in sight," Wistrcill explained. "Too many possibilities.”

Conference changes (completed or planned) in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zone, including football-only and non-football members.

Pac-12

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah and Washington

In: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Utah State and Texas State

Mountain West

Out: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State

In: Grand Canyon, Hawaii, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, UC Davis and UTEP

West Coast Conference

Out: Gonzaga

In: Denver, Seattle, UC San Diego and UC Santa Barbara

(Note: Grand Canyon agreed to join the WCC in the spring of 2024 but opted for the Mountain West instead.)

Big West

Out: UC Davis, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara and Hawaii

In: Cal Baptist, Utah Valley and Sacramento State

Big Sky

Out: Sacramento State

In: Southern Utah University and Utah Tech

WAC

Out: Grand Canyon, Seattle, Southern Utah, Utah Tech and UT-Rio Grande Valley

In: None

(Note: The WAC is rebranding as the United Athletic Conference, a joint venture with the Atlantic Sun, and will have no members west of Texas.)