Big 12 men's basketball outlook for '27: Arizona, Houston, Iowa St. early frontrunners

TCU star David Punch was the first to depart, followed by Iowa State sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Kansas big man Flory Bidunga.

Just like that, three potential contenders for the conference crown in 2027 were left with major holes in their lineups.

The players could be adequately replaced, for it's early in the roster-building process: The majority of the top players (out of more than 2,000) in the transfer portal have not selected new homes.

But the three departures add a hefty dose of uncertainty to the Big 12’s prospects for conference supremacy. The middle looks stout, but the top doesn’t appear quite as strong as last season.

The following projections for the 2027 race will be updated in early June, following NBA Draft stay-or-go decisions.

1. Arizona

Neither Brayden Burries nor Koa Peat has officially entered the NBA Draft, but both are expected to make the leap. The replacement process is well underway with mega-recruit Caleb Holt expected to slide into Burries' spot on the wing. Transfers Derek Dixon (North Carolina) and JJ Mandaquit (Washington) will fortify the perimeter, and at this point, bruisers Mo Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov are expected back. The end result is a rotation worthy of being tagged the preseason favorite — at least for now.

2. Houston

The Cougars filled their greatest need last weekend when they landed LSU’s Dedan Thomas, one of the top point guards in the portal. But for the first time in years — and beyond any specific personnel deficiencies — we are left wondering if the Cougars have lost a bit of their mojo. (The lopsided loss to Illinois in the Sweet 16, in Houston, remains baffling all these weeks later.) That said, there are visible flaws on every roster in the Big 12. Comparatively, the Cougars are in solid shape. They have Kelvin Sampson, after all.

3. Iowa State

Had Momcilovic stayed put, the Cyclones might have been our pick to win the conference. That’s not to diminish the impact of losing lead guard Tamin Lipsey and all-everything forward Joshua Jefferson, but coach TJ Otzelberger has every facet of his program operating at the highest level. The defense should be stout, and it won’t take long for the new perimeter pillars, Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon, to establish themselves. But they need help, and plenty of it, to overtake the Wildcats and Cougars.

4. TCU

The loss of Punch, a sophomore who averaged 14 points and seven rebounds, caused us to reassess TCU's ceiling in 2027. Coach Jamie Dixon has enough proven production to avoid a serious backslide. But a leap onto the conference's top tier, with regular appearances in the national rankings and a top-five seed in the NCAAs, depends on forwards Xavier Edmonds and Micah Robinson emerging as one of the top frontcourt tandems in the conference.

5. BYU

The terrific trio of AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright is no more, with only Wright set to return (after a brief stay in the transfer portal). Granted, the Cougars have done their best to restock with ace recruit Bruce Branch and transfer Collin Chandler (from Kentucky). But we care less about the talent ceiling and more about BYU mustering the necessary grit. In two years under coach Kevin Young, the Cougars have ranked 82nd and 59th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Unless that changes, they have no chance to win the conference.

6. Kansas

The NIL era brought the Jayhawks back to the pack within the Big 12, and there’s nothing to suggest that altered state will change materially. Yes, the recruiting class is loaded — and it could get better if Tyran Stokes, the nation’s No. 1 prospect, heads to Lawrence. But that means less than it used to, just as coach Bill Self’s command of his craft seemingly isn’t what it once was. The Jayhawks have lost more conference games in the past three years (23) than they did in the five before that.

7. Texas Tech

We don’t know if All-American forward JT Toppin will be healthy (and in top form) or if star guard Christian Anderson will remain in the NBA Draft. But we know the Red Raiders have plenty of money available to rebuild the roster — and to do it from scratch, if necessary. This placement reflects our faith in coach Grant McCasland to identify talent that fits together, then produce a whole that’s better than the parts.

8. West Virginia

Ross Hodge exceeded expectations in his first season, leading the Mountaineers to 21 wins and a .500 mark in conference play. The momentum should continue — in fact, it already has: West Virginia landed one of the most coveted big men in the portal, Georgia Tech’s Mouhamed Sylla, and a sneaky-good guard, Butler’s Finley Bizjack, to bolster Hodge's rotation.

9. Cincinnati

Hotline forecasts are wrong more often than they are right. But we're quite confident that first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, fresh from a stellar stint at Utah State, will turn Cincinnati into a relevant program sooner than later. His impressive transfer haul, which includes forward Myles Colvin from Wake Forest, offers early proof of the transformation. The Bearcats were respectable under Wes Miller; they will be dangerous under Calhoun.

10. UCF

The Knights used a veteran lineup last season and consequently have been hit hard by attrition. To date, the replacement process features a handful of low-profile transfers, suggesting coach Johnny Dawkins and Co. have lost ground relative to peers like Cincinnati and West Virginia. That dynamic could change in the coming weeks, but we're skeptical.

11. Arizona State

Admittedly, this is a fairly lofty projection for a team with a new coach and gutted roster. But you can count on one hand the number of coaches who identify and develop talent more effectively than Randy Bennett. His rebuild in Tempe is underway with Emmanuel Innocenti (from Gonzaga), and there's a good chance Bennett lands his former Saint Mary's big man, Paulius Murauskas, one of the top players in the portal. More importantly, we wish Bennett good health after a medical situation serious enough that he was treated by the Mayo Clinic.

12. Baylor

Five years ago, the Bears were kings of the sport. Today, they are an afterthought in the Big 12, having been lapped by the likes of Texas Tech and Iowa State. The arrival of five-star prospect Tounde Yessoufou will help Scott Drew's sagging program avoid a complete bottoming out. But the trajectory is not what anyone could have predicted when he cut down the nets in Indianapolis in April 2021.

13. Oklahoma State

The continued recovery in Stillwater depends, to a large extent, on Luka Bogavac. If you're unfamiliar, the 6-foot-6 wing is a promising sophomore who left North Carolina following the coach change in Chapel Hill. He possesses the skill set needed to propel the Cowboys to the next stop on their journey to relevance — but only if the supporting cast performs to the expected standard.

14. Colorado

Two things, equally true: Tad Boyle is a quality coach who maximizes his personnel at a higher rate than the majority of his peers; also, CU is simply not equipped to thrive in the Big 12. It doesn't have the institutional commitment or the NIL funding to compile a roster capable of breaking into the top half. Losing guard Isaiah Johnson (to Texas) was merely the latest blow in Boulder.

15. Kansas State

Casey Alexander won in the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley and Missouri Valley, and eventually, he will thrive in the Big 12. But the process will take several years. PJ Haggerty's departure is a hit, for sure, although the impact might not be as significant as the loss of 23 points per game appears.

16. Utah

Not surprisingly, the Utes lost half the roster to the transfer portal after a disappointing first season under Alex Jensen. Outlooks can change quickly in this era, but we are struggling to see an escape hatch for the Utes. They appear doomed for another season on the Big 12's bottom tier.