Since Casey Mittelstadt capped the Buffalo Sabres’ memorable final two months of the season April 29 with an overtime winner, a portion of the long-frustrated fan base has called for general manager Kevyn Adams to back up the Brink's truck to pay a free-agent goalie and whoever else can help end the playoff drought.
Adams has money to spend. Only the Anaheim Ducks have more salary cap space than the Sabres’ $32.2 million, and Buffalo must spend approximately $11 million to reach the league-mandated floor, according to CapFriendly.com. But you won’t see that money burned in free agency when the market opens at noon Wednesday. The Sabres won’t be calling the Chicago Blackhawks to try to acquire South Buffalo native Patrick Kane’s $10.5 million contract, either.
We’re still in the early stages of Adams’ plan to draft and develop players to supplement the young core in Buffalo. He’s not going to expedite the process for short-term gains if it impacts his ability to build a sustained winner.
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Signing a goalie to a long-term deal would block prospects Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi – it’s also possible the Sabres don’t want to discourage Levi from putting pen to paper on an entry-level contract next spring – and acquiring Kane would drain the organization’s prospect depth and/or future draft capital.
The Sabres are seeking a bridge goalie who won’t impact their cap space in future seasons when players such as Tage Thompson will need to be paid more. The club is moving forward with the young core that showed notable signs of growth in March and April, when Buffalo had a .625 points percentage.
Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens and Peyton Krebs need ice time next season. The same goes for prospects Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka if they make the roster out of training camp. Each needs opportunity to continue his development in the NHL. Adams must also evaluate who will be around long-term.
Adams and his staff are seeking cost-effective, short-term options in free agency and trades that fit the Sabres on and off the ice. With his plan in mind, here’s how I would approach the offseason, including candidates for each area of need.
Restricted free agency
The Sabres are expected to submit qualifying offers Monday all their restricted free agents, retaining their rights until a contract is completed: Luukkonen, Victor Olofsson, Brett Murray and Arttu Ruotsalainen.
Each has the option to accept his qualifying offer, file for salary arbitration – Luukkonen isn’t eligible yet – or negotiate a contract with the Sabres.
Buffalo signed defenseman Jacob Bryson to a two-year contract Sunday that carries a $1.85 million average annual value. Bryson, a restricted free agent, has appeared in 111 games over the past two seasons, averaging 18:35 of ice time during that span.
Olofsson, 26, is the one to keep an eye on. The winger totaled 20 goals last season despite playing through a wrist injury that impacted the release, power and accuracy of his remarkable left-handed shot.
He has a pair of 20-goal campaigns, with 55 goals in 188 games since making his NHL debut in 2019 and, remarkably, this was his first 82-game season in the league. Evolving-Hockey.com projects Olofsson will receive a four-year, $4.95 million contract. His agent, Claude Lemieux, is likely angling for that term.
Olofsson’s role on the power play could eventually be taken by prospects such as Quinn, Peterka and Isak Rosen, among others. Though the cap hit is a fair price to pay, the Sabres probably want the term to be three years. They need Olofsson on the roster next season, and it’s too soon to think the prospects are ready to take his spot.
Sign Olofsson to a three-year contract with a $5.5 million average annual value. The rest return on prove-it contracts. It is too soon to sign Luukkonen to a bridge deal, so I'll go with a one-year deal that takes him into another restricted free agency summer.
Contract extensions
This isn’t the time to try to sign Thompson to a long-term contract. He’s a restricted free agent next summer, but the leverage is in his agent’s corner right now. The Sabres need to see if Thompson is going to replicate his impeccable performance from 2021-22, when he totaled 38 goals while playing center in the NHL for the first time. Pay him when there’s a bigger sample size to gauge his fit at that position.
Cozens’ agent, Allain Roy, probably doesn’t want a bridge contract yet, either. Next summer makes more sense when Cozens is a restricted free agent. He’s on the verge of a breakout offensively and his expanding role alone will increase the price.
It is also important to remember that Rasmus Dahlin has only two years remaining on his contract, which carries a $6.1 million average annual value. The Sabres need to plan for his next deal to be in the $9 million range.
Departing players
The following unrestricted free agents can sign elsewhere if they don’t get a deal done with Buffalo by noon Wednesday, not including a few Rochester regulars: Vinnie Hinostroza, Cody Eakin, John Hayden, Colin Miller, Will Butcher, Mark Pysyk, Dustin Tokarski, Malcolm Subban, Aaron Dell, Michael Houser, Drake Caggiula and Mark Jankowski.
Only four appear to be options to return next season: Hinostroza, Hayden, Pysyk and Tokarski. Adams told reporters recently that he wants to sign Tokarski to be Luukkonen's goalie partner in Rochester, but the 32-year-old might want to see if he can get an NHL opportunity elsewhere.
As GM, I’d sign Hinostroza to a two-year contract with a $2 million average annual value. He had 13 goals in 62 games last season and fit perfectly in the dressing room. He was an ideal role model who had great chemistry with Cozens. It’s also important to have insurance in the event Peterka or Quinn aren’t ready for the jump to the NHL at the start of the season.
Additionally, I’m bringing back Hayden to play his miserable-to-face, fourth-line role. Houser is coming back for the job of reliable goalie option for Rochester and Cincinnati. I’m allowing the rest of the unrestricted free agents to reach the open market.
Areas of need
The forward group is mostly set with the following players under contract next season: Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Asplund, Zemgus Girgensons, Kyle Okposo, Peyton Krebs and Anders Bjork. Quinn and Peterka will push for roster spots. Olofsson also will be back.
The only glaring needs up front are at fourth-line center and bottom-six depth.
On defense, the Sabres will return Dahlin, Bryson, Mattias Samuelsson, Owen Power, Henri Jokiharju and Casey Fitzgerald. Adams expressed a desire to get another veteran defenseman to join this young group.
In goal, the Sabres have one half of their tandem set with Craig Anderson, who, at 41, will return for a 20th NHL season. Another proven option is needed so Luukkonen gets more time to develop in Rochester.
Now, let’s dive into each position of need, candidates to fill those holes and the players I would add.
Fourth-line center
The top of the center depth chart is set with Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens and Krebs. And while Girgensons can shift back to center to replace Eakin, I’d prefer to keep him on the wing, where he’s spent the bulk of his time in the NHL. It’s also possible that West Seneca native Sean Malone wins the fourth-line center job out of training camp. Injury prevented him from getting games in Buffalo last season.
But I'd still consider the following candidates:
• Johan Larsson: Evolving-Hockey projects the former Sabre to require only a one-year, $1.087 million deal, and though he missed time with an injury last season, he’s still a defensive stalwart and tough as nails. The Capitals thought so highly of Larsson that they traded a third-round pick to Arizona for him at the deadline. He’s not going to score goals, but he does the grunt work to help others have success offensively.
• Curtis Lazar: OK, OK, don’t throw tomatoes yet. There’s always some resistance to reuniting with former Sabres, but Lazar is a perfect character fit for the Sabres’ new culture, an effective faceoff specialist and reliable defensively. His foot speed can be an issue at times when playing down the middle, but he was a valuable fourth liner for the Bruins and would come cheaply enough.
• Nick Bonino: This deal would require a trade with San Jose, which is going younger and might want to clear Bonino’s $2.05 million cap hit from the books. Bonino, 34, won back-to-back Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh when Sabres assistant general manager Jason Karmanos worked for the organization and scored 16 goals last season. Bonino can play higher in the lineup if necessary, remains reliable defensively, and typically wins more than 50% of his faceoffs. The acquisition cost is likely too high for the role he'd play in Buffalo, but he’s at the top of my list for this position.
• Victor Rask: A second-round pick of Carolina when Karmanos was there in 2011, Rask has totaled double-digit goals only once since 2017-18 and struggled so badly with Minnesota last season that he was sent to the AHL. I saw enough from Rask in Seattle late in the season to take a flier on him here.
Conclusion: The Sharks are unlikely to move Bonino now because he would be a valuable player at the trade deadline, so I’m moving on to Larsson. He needs to improve in the faceoff dot, but if it’s an issue, Girgensons can always take over in the middle. Remember, Larsson, Girgensons and Okposo were one of the top defensive lines in the NHL in 2019-20. Reuniting that trio would give coach Don Granato a useful tool to deploy against the opponent’s top line.
Defense
The Sabres are expected to reunite with left-shot defenseman Lawrence Pilut after the 26-year-old had his contract terminated by Traktor Chelyabinsk of the Kontinental Hockey League. Pilut would compete for a roster spot in training camp, but it’s more likely that he’s the Amerks’ top defenseman. Pilut is a perfect depth option and has the type of upside you usually can’t find on the open market at a bargain price. He’s still technically a restricted free agent, so there’s no risk of losing him to another team. I’d still add another veteran defenseman, especially if prospect Ryan Johnson returns to college for his senior season.
• Troy Stecher: A right-handed shot, Stecher was Power’s partner on Canada’s top defense pair when it won gold at the IIHF World Championship in 2021. Stecher, 28, would come cheap at a projected $761,000 contract, according to Evolving-Hockey, and would be perfect in a depth role on a young team. He’s been effective on a third pair when healthy.
• Ethan Bear: The Sabres would need to work out a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes to acquire the restricted free agent, but he’s a talented right-shot defenseman with a skill set that perfectly fits Granato’s system. Bear, 25, was given permission to talk to other teams when talks stalled with Carolina. He was a scratch throughout the playoffs, though health reportedly played a factor. He would help the Sabres on the penalty kill and is projected to receive only a two-year, $2.48 million contract if he signs elsewhere.
• Ilya Lyubushkin: The 28-year-old isn’t flashy and won’t contribute much offensively, but he’s reliable defensively, particularly when trying to stifle an opponent’s rush offense. He’s a right-handed shot, cheap at a projected $836,000 for one year, and it wouldn’t hurt for the Sabres to have a Russian NHLer after they selected six players from the country over the past two drafts.
• Jan Rutta: The contract projection is low for the two-time Stanley Cup champion ($2.41 million for three years) and his right-handed shot is a nice complement to the Sabres’ stable of young defensemen. Difficult to imagine him leaving Tampa Bay, though. And if he does, would he want to come to Buffalo?
Conclusion: Send a draft pick to Carolina for Bear’s rights and ink the young defenseman to a two-year contract. There’s nothing wrong with having too many blue liners. Teams need to go six or seven deep. If the Hurricanes’ ask is unreasonable, I’m pivoting to Lyubushkin.
Goalie
The Sabres are scouring the goalie market to try to find value. The tricky part is that Adams wants someone to simply hold the job for one season – he’ll go two years for the right goalie – until Luukkonen and/or Levi are ready. There aren’t many available, though, as teams are now going with the tandem model, as opposed to a workhorse.
• James Reimer or Adin Hill: Sharks general manager Mike Grier is going to have to trade a goalie after he signs restricted free agent Kaapo Kahkonen. Reimer is my preference here. His underlying numbers were strong on a bad team last season and he’s under contract for one year at $2.25 million. He’s 34 years old and, by all accounts, a great guy who is a role model for young players. Hill is younger at 26, but I haven’t seen enough from him to think he can hold down the job.
• Laurent Brossoit: Vegas might want a more established goalie behind Robin Lehner and could use Brossoit’s $2.35 million of cap space elsewhere. Brossoit, 29, had success as a backup in Winnipeg when the Jets were a strong defensive team, but he struggled on an injury-burdened Golden Knights squad. He’s worth a flier if Vegas is willing to trade him for a low-round draft choice, though he’s never played more than 24 games in an NHL season.
• Eric Comrie: This is the only free-agent option that makes sense for Buffalo, in my opinion. Comrie, 27, posted an outstanding .920 save percentage in 19 games for Winnipeg last season, and his underlying numbers were exceptional, particularly his 9.89 goals saved above expected, which measures a goalie’s performance based on the quality of shots faced. He’d come cheap at a projected one-year, $1.248 million contract and appears ready for a starting opportunity.
Conclusion: I’m trading a draft pick to San Jose for Reimer, even if the cost is as high as a third rounder. The Sabres can’t be the last team standing in the game of goalie musical chairs, as they were last summer. This is the latest example of why you need to draft and develop goalies.
Depth signings
The Sabres need to fill out the roster with depth options, as they did last summer by bringing in Malone. A few candidates I’d consider are winger Anthony Angello and defenseman Dennis Gilbert (a Buffalo native). They can come in on two-way contracts and help the Amerks. Both are young enough that I’d like to see what they can accomplish with the coaching in Rochester. Ruotsalainen is also a big piece of the puzzle. He might make Hinostroza an unnecessary signing.
Additionally, I’d target one of two goalies to work with Luukkonen in Rochester: Andrew Hammond or Louis Domingue. Subban is a great fit for so many reasons, but I think it’s best for his career that he go somewhere he can be an AHL starter.
Final depth
This isn’t the offseason some wanted for Buffalo, but the Sabres aren’t ready to go big-game hunting. If they’re on the precipice of contention next summer, then you’ll see Adams weaponize his cap space to try to add a high-end NHLer. But he saw through his experience signing Taylor Hall that it can be counterproductive to overspend, even on a one-year contract. Young players need opportunity.
The Sabres are still developing and evaluating. They’ll use their pro scouts and analytics staff to find valuable players to fill out their roster. Getting to the floor won’t be difficult with the plan I applied here, especially the trades for Reimer and Bear.
With my plan, the Sabres’ training camp roster would include:
Centers: Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, Johan Larsson, Sean Malone.
Left wing: Jeff Skinner, Jack Quinn, Rasmus Asplund, Zemgus Girgensons, Brett Murray, Anders Bjork.
Right wing: Alex Tuch, Victor Olofsson, JJ Peterka, Vinnie Hinostroza, Kyle Okposo, John Hayden, Arttu Ruotsalainen.
Defensemen: Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson, Owen Power, Henri Jokiharju, Ethan Bear, Jacob Bryson, Casey Fitzgerald, Lawrence Pilut.
Goalies: James Reimer, Craig Anderson, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Louis Domingue, Michael Houser.
