{child_flags:top_story}Heads in the clouds
{child_byline}JOE MARTUCCI
Press Meteorologist
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South Jersey is no easy place for a meteorologist.
The four seasons, coastal storms and finding the rain-snow line has always made it one of the toughest places to forecast in the country.
The National Weather Service has remained a strong community partner in South Jersey on its 150th anniversary. And with a massive array of equipment, computing power and knowledge in its meteorologists’ hands, they continue to keep up with the increasing demand for higher quality and faster lead time for weather information.
“They’re our right arm when it comes to weather emergencies. We believe in the NWS, and that’s the bible,” said Martin Pagliughi, coordinator for the Cape May County Office of Emergency Management.
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The National Weather Service has maintained an active presence in southeastern New Jersey since President Ulysses S. Grant signed a resolution forming the weather observation and forecasting wing of the United States Army Signal Service on Feb. 9, 1870. Vague forecasts, out to 24 hours, were put out to protect mariners and military members, albeit with mixed results at first.
Being near the coast was central to these operations. An NWS office has had an active presence in southeastern New Jersey through 1995, and being a close confidant of the community was a pillar for success.
“It became a family atmosphere, much the same way down here now” said Jim Eberwine, retired meteorologist for the NWS and Absecon resident whose 38 years with the weather service was virtually all spent covering South Jersey, including being in “Building 301” at Atlantic City International Airport from 1977 to 1988 and at the NWS Mount Holly office from 1993 until his retirement in 2010.
It’s not just the countless emergency managers who walked through the doors that made it so, but the community involvement.
Jason Franklin, the current meteorologist in charge at the NWS Mount Holly office, “pretty much” started his career at the airport office in 1993 until its closing in 1995. He returned to New Jersey in 2018 as the top dog after the retirement of Gary Szatkowski.
“We’d go out and do events, like the boat show in Atlantic City. ... We did have a lot of connections with the surf community, coastal flooding was a big deal. For the areas that inundated, we worked a lot with the emergency managers at all levels,” Franklin said.
For Martin Ross, retired meteorologist in charge of the NWS office at what is now the Federal Aviation Administration’s William J. Hughes Technical Center in Egg Harbor Township from 1972 to 1984, that meant alerting people as early as possible about coastal flooding.
“Coastal flood warnings were in use when I started in 1960. However, by 1977, I suggested ... that the use of the term ‘coastal flood watch’ be authorized. Obviously, it would highlight an upcoming storm event rather than be lost in the body of the forecast. Its use was approved by NWS in 1978,” Ross said.
Eberwine and Dean Iovino, lead meteorologist at the NWS Mount Holly, mapped out what streets could see coastal flooding, especially in nuisance events, from the late 1980s to 1994. While coastal flood hazards have been done since the office at Atlantic City International opened, it was the duo’s work when residents could peg a tide forecast to flooding on their street. It became known as “Operation Crabcake,” after the meal they shared on the last night of their journey.
“I literally walked the beaches from Sandy Hook to Cape May (127 miles) up the New Jersey side of Delaware Bay and the Delaware side of Delaware Bay, the 21 miles of the Delaware coast, and the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the Delaware River up to Trenton. I videotaped the hot spots for flooding,” Eberwine said.
Not only has that protected the public, it also has tightened the bond between emergency management and the NWS.
“When I went to some of these tidal places and we looked at these different things, when the OEMs would call up, they’d be dumbfounded that I knew all of their roads. ... People never saw anyone from the weather service,” Eberwine said.
Today, the program that greatest exemplifies the relationship among South Jersey residents, emergency management and the NWS is StormReady. Beginning in 2000, the program prepares communities for their increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Since 1910, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Extremes Index in the Northeast has risen. The increase is especially noticeable since 2000.
“When a community is established StormReady, we have established that the community has the communication and infrastructure to get warnings and get them to the people who need to get it and those people know what to do with it,” said Joe Miketta, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS in Mount Holly.
Scott Morgan, emergency management coordinator for Upper Township, says StormReady has helped residents in special flood zones save 25% on their flood insurance premiums through the National Flood Insurance Program’s Community Rating System.
And typically in May, Morgan and thousands of others in the emergency management field attend the New Jersey Emergency Preparedness Conference in Atlantic City, due to the work of Eberwine and the NWS Mount Holly.
“Over the years, it grew from one day, one classroom at the Tropicana for 200 to 250 people. Now, it’s five days,” Eberwine said.
Since 1999, the accuracy and rate of forecasting hurricanes has grown exponentially. A hurricane forecast put out by the National Hurricane Center that year was as accurate three days out as it was five days out in 2018.
“Back in 1991, we’re all hunkering down in the Avalon Emergency Operations Center and paying attention for Hurricane Bob 2-3 days out. ... The storm actually went by us for 5-6 hours before we even knew it,” Pagliughi said.
Tornado forecasting has made gains in South Jersey, too. According to Miketta, stronger storms, above an Enhanced Fujita scale 2 of 5, have a lead time of 10 to 15 minutes, on average. Weaker tornadoes, an EF-0 or EF-2, now have a 1-3 minute lead time. This has provided people time to seek sturdy shelter and prevent numerous deaths and injuries.
“What I would like to see the office move into is get into really high detail with hazardous weather. Our clients are upping the ante on the level of detail and information needed,” Franklin said.
From the person wondering if the next tropical system will put water on their block, to the farmer looking for a seasonal outlook on drought, rapidly expanding technology and effective communication with those who serve their communities will be key.
“In the next 30 years, it’s going to be amazing what we’re going to be able to do,” Franklin said.
