Pima housing experts upbeat

Industry experts expect a slowing of foreclosures and rising home prices to be the highlights of next year.

They share their thoughts on the state of the local housing market:

The analyst

The 155 single-family permits issued in November was the highest in five years and pushed the year-to-date volume over 1,900, said Ginger Kneup, a residential market analyst and owner of Bright Future Real Estate Research, LLC.

"Exceeding 2,000 permits for the year will help everyone breathe a bit easier," she said in her monthly newsletter.

In an interview, Kneup said there is no longer a price chasm between foreclosed homes and new homes.

"As that gap narrows, this gives homeowners the confidence to put their home on the market," she said. "Narrowing that gap is key to stabilizing the market."

Kneup predicts that the price of new homes will rise in the last half of 2013 as the inventory of finished lots is developed.

"It means the price of a new home is going to increase rather significantly," she said. "This could benefit the resale market and help support further stabilization."

The homebuilders

"I think it's going to be a slow recovery, but by mid-2013 we're going to see prices start to climb," said Steve Soriano, vice president and chief financial officer for Robson Resort Communities, which specializes in age-restricted developments in Pima and Pinal counties.

"We turned the corner," Soriano said of 2012. "We've seen an increase in sales, an increase in traffic and a drop in resales within our communities."

He said Robson recently began hiring for the first time since 2006. About 600 jobs were added in 2012, but the builder is having a hard time finding skilled labor.

"Labor is tough to get and that will put pressure on costs and drive up prices," Soriano said.

Pent-up demand and a rise in rents led to a higher-than-expected sales year for D.R. Horton, said Glenn Marion, sales and marketing manager.

"Homebuyers have stated a renewed confidence in housing," he said.

D.R. Horton hopes to develop up to 10 communities in 2013.

"We hope that the Tucson housing market continues to improve," Marion said.

The lender

Arizona was one of the hardest-hit states in terms of the run-up in home prices and subsequent crash, said Derrick Polder, senior loan officer and production manager for Nova Home Loans.

"As a result, we were one of the hardest-hit markets in terms of lending restrictions," he said.

Still, Polder says, buyer hesitation was what surprised him the most in 2012.

"I'm very surprised at where interest rates sit and how many people do not realize what an opportunity we have right now," he said. "The notion that banks aren't lending anymore is not accurate.

"The reality is there are several loan options available to people, but there's more scrutiny," Polder said. "The pendulum swung from one extreme to the other, but I tell people, 'Bear with me. I'm going to get you through the process.' "

Most people with at least a 640 credit score and money for a down payment can get into a home, he said.

For 2013, he predicts interest rates will remain low until unemployment figures improve, but prices will rise as competition increases for entry-level homes, Polder said.

"Over the last year or two, we've really seen a bottom," he said. "If you look at appraisals now, they're stable and increasing."

The deal maker

In 2013, several types of homeowners will move the market, predicts Rosey Koberlein, CEO of Long Realty.

"Folks who did foreclosures in 2007 and 2008 are now in the buyer pool," she said. "Other buyers in 2013 will be those who have been renting for the last few years. Still others are the folks who have been watching our market for several years, waiting for us to hit bottom."

Winter visitors, for example, may be willing to make a purchase now that the market has stabilized before home prices begin to climb, Koberlein said.

Homeowners who have been in their house for more than 10 years and are not underwater will move up, she said.

"They see now is a great opportunity to buy a home that will appreciate," Koberlein said.

Other buyers are young first-time homeowners whose parents are helping them get into a house to take advantage of low interest rates.

"We're moving in the right direction," she said. "To have a nice, slow, methodical increase in prices is a real sign of health."

Contact reporter Gabriela Rico at grico@azstarnet.com or 573-4232.