Who will win this year’s Oscars? ‘Sinners,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ square off

That’s how the Best Picture competition stacks up — at this point.

But “Sinners” — which happens to be from the same company as “One Battle” — emerged as a sleeper, winning Best Actor and Best Ensemble prizes from The Actor Awards, the last of the big prizes before Oscar night. If that suggests a shift, we could see a surprise at the last minute. Knowing how stubborn Academy members are —and unwilling to let the actors force their hand — it could be a red herring. “One Battle” won Best Picture awards from the Critics Choice, Golden Globe and British Academy Award voters. That seems like an awful lot for “Sinners” to overcome. We say “One Battle” wins best picture.

Still, stranger things have happened.

Here’s how the rest of the Oscars could transpire:

Lead actress

This is the easiest category to handicap because Jessie Buckley has won everything for “Hamnet.” She provided the heart to a story about William Shakespeare and his budding career. If there’s a spoiler, it’s Rose Byrne in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” She has several prizes to her name, too, but “Hamnet” can’t go home empty-handed (it’s just too good), and she’s the one to carry the banner. Look for Buckley to win.

Lead actor

Those Actor Awards moved Michael B. Jordan out of the “also nominated” pack and onto the realm of “contender.” If there’s a sweep for “Sinners,” he has a chance. But if the prognosticators are right, it’s Timothée Chalamet’s for “Marty Supreme.” Chalamet did everything possible to make this happen, including intense table tennis study, and surely he deserves to win. He didn’t win last year for “A Complete Unknown” and should have voter regret working in his favor.

Likely to win: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme.”

Spoiler: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners.”

Supporting actress

This category has extremely strong contenders. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another,” seemed like the front runner, but the prizes have been split among her, Amy Madigan, “Weapons,” and Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners.”

When Madigan won The Actor, you could sense there’s a desire to reward someone who has been in the business for some time. She’s the only veteran in the bunch — remember “Field of Dreams,” “Gone Baby Gone” and “Places in the Heart”? — and that could work in her favor. Against her? “Weapons” is a horror film, and that doesn’t sit well with those who think a prestige picture should win. Taylor and Mosaku could be beneficiaries of sweeps for their films. But there’s a gut feeling that this is now one envelope away from being in Madigan’s hands.

Likely to win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons.”

Spoiler: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another.”

Supporting actor

This is the toughest category of all. Past winners (Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro) and veterans (Delroy Lindo, Stellan Skarsgård) compete with a hot young actor (Jacob Elordi). So far, it’s “something for everyone” with early contests. But it could come down to Penn, “One Battle After Another,” and Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value.” Because Penn already has two Oscars, Skarsgard could be a stronger choice. But Penn’s performance is so intense, varied and essential to his film, it’s impossible to say he’s out of the mix.

Likely to win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another,” or Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value."

Spoiler: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners.”

Director

Paul Thomas Anderson is destined to win this, largely because he has plenty of nominations and no wins. Plus, he’s one of the new elite, and his “One Battle After Another” is one of his strongest films.

Animated film

“KPop Demon Hunters.”

International film

It’s a split between “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent.” Either could win.

Original song

“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters.”

Other categories

“Frankenstein” should do well in the craft categories; “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “F1” will win in technical categories; and “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” should split the writing prizes.