New post debate survey has Sinema leading in Senate race

The new polling from Data Orbital shows Sinema has a 5 point lead over Tucson Congresswoman Martha McSally, but factoring in the margin of error in a poll of 600 likely voters means the race is still incredibly close.

"We are continuing to look to turnout as they key factor in these midterms. If Democratic voters turnout in high numbers, Sinema’s position looks very strong," said George Khalaf, president of the Data Orbital polling.

If Democrats show up to the polls, often referred to as a 'blue wave', Sinema's lead would increase to about 8 percent. 

Roughly 7 percent of voters, according to Data Orbital, remain undecided.

Khalaf notes the even if Republicans turn out, Sinema still has a slim lead.

"While Sinema still holds the lead under that scenario, we still have 19 days to go and over 7 percent of voters remain undecided. There is still time and room for movement in the race," Khalaf said. 

One noteworthy aspect of the poll, 13 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Sinema, while 5 percent of Democrats chose McSally.

Independents also break for Sinema by almost 20 points, but are also the largest group of undecided voters.