Beyond Covid in 2021: Bills stadium talks, casino negotiations and political intrigue

Covid-19, vaccines and a pandemic-triggered recession will continue to dominate headlines in the new year.

But there is other news on the horizon.

Talks over Bills Stadium in Orchard Park are likely to ramp up in earnest. New York State and the Seneca Nation must renegotiate the compact that authorizes the Seneca casinos. A downtown tech hub is poised to bring new life into the city's tallest building – if workers get back to the office.

There will be political intrigue, too. The offices of Erie County sheriff and comptroller are up for election, and eyes will be on whether or not Mayor Byron W. Brown seeks a record fifth term.

And plenty of uncertainty, too. Will schools get back to normal? Will nursing home residents get peace? Will vaccines free people to get back to business?

Read on to see what Buffalo News reporters will be watching for in 2021.

The economy

The Covid-19 vaccine can't come fast enough for the Buffalo Niagara economy.

After a downturn that sucked more than 40,000 jobs out of the local economy, any recovery that takes place in 2021 is going to depend on bringing the pandemic under control.

Widespread vaccinations will do for the local economy what the social distance measures that have been in place for the past year have not: Allow consumers to move about freely and safely in numbers that aren't held down by government-imposed capacity limits.

If that happens, expect a gush of travel as cooped-up families rush to explore new places – a dream-come-true for the battered travel and hospitality sector.

But there also will be lingering casualties, as financially weakened small businesses, from restaurants to stores, go under because they simply didn't have the resources to ride out the pandemic.

– David Robinson

2021 Lookahead Schools

Schools

Look for 2021 to be a catch-up year for schools, after a less-than-ideal one for tens of thousands of children in Western New York.

Some, including 32,000 kids in Buffalo Public Schools, have been connecting with their teachers only via computers and phones since March. Most others have been going to school in person just two days a week and learning remotely the other days.

Educators will be evaluating students to see what skills they need to improve, and how they can get them back on track to reach their educational milestones.

But that is likely to be a multiyear process as the disruption from the pandemic could have an impact on learning and education for years to come.

– Barbara O’Brien and Jay Rey

Nursing homes

With almost 6,900 nursing home residents killed statewide by Covid-19, we will be checking to see if the priority push to vaccinate this frail population is succeeding in saving lives.

Are these vulnerable residents getting the vaccine in a timely manner? What about staff? The state in 2020 cited staff as an unintentional source of introducing the virus into the facilities.

A bigger picture issue we’ll be exploring is whether nursing homes make permanent changes in infection control so that they do not experience such deadly outcomes if there is another pandemic.

– Lou Michel

Erie County government

In 2020, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz presided over a nine-month state of emergency, with Erie County government playing a critical role in the public health response effort to Covid-19.

The new year won't change that. But it will bring more things to the county executive's already full table.

After lease negotiations for the Bills Stadium were delayed by the pandemic in 2020, talks are expected to begin in earnest in 2021. The three-way lease agreement among Erie County, New York State and the Buffalo Bills expires in 2023.

Erie County will also play a major role in the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine to the general public, and ensuring public compliance with health safety rules so businesses can remain open.

– Sandra Tan

Real estate and development

Low interest rates, record-low inventory of existing homes for sale, and frenzied competition among buyers drove home prices in 2020, despite the pandemic.

Those conditions are expected to continue in 2021.

Development projects are still moving forward, but the pandemic and recession have prompted some rethinking, in part to factor in social distancing and remote-working. Some hotel and related hospitality projects have been put on hold – the Trico Building, for example – or may be converted to include more apartments or office space instead of guest rooms and restaurants.

– Jonathan Epstein

2021 Lookahead Seneca One

Downtown tech hub

One of downtown's biggest development projects is still moving forward. M&T Bank still has its eye on moving workers into its "Tech Hub" at Seneca One tower, but the timing is not yet certain.

The vast majority of M&T employees are working from home amid the pandemic, and the bank will maintain that policy through at least April 5.

The bank's workforce at the tech hub is expected to inject new life into Buffalo's tallest building once the move is made. M&T had hoped to move in last year but those plans were delayed.

– Matt Glynn

Northtown development

A number of redevelopment projects, including some years in the making, could move forward in the Northtowns in 2021.

Amherst: Officials working on a comprehensive "Amherst Central Park" deal, after making progress in 2020, could finalize an agreement this year. The revival of the former Northtown Plaza as a retail hub could restart after stopping last spring.

Clarence: The Eastern Hills Mall is eyed for transformation into a mixed-use, lifestyle center as traffic has declined. If the owners receive necessary approvals, they hope to break ground on the multiyear project by late 2021.

Grand Island: Another large warehouse proposed for the would-be Amazon site is under review and still facing resident objections. A group is trying to reopen Fantasy Island but it may be too late for the 2021 season.

Town of Tonawanda: A long-sought sale and reuse of the Huntley Power Plant site stalled in 2020 but town officials hope owner NRG Energy finds a buyer soon.

– Stephen T. Watson

City of Niagara Falls

Development initiatives in downtown Niagara Falls also are expected to progress.

Mayor Robert M. Restaino said the city received strong developer response to a November request for proposals for its South End Gateway project: the redevelopment of 91 lots in and around downtown. The city extended the time for proposals.

In addition, Restaino said the city is likely to receive final state approval this year for the use of $10 million in Downtown Revitalization Initiative funds granted in 2019. Some of the proposed projects are part of the private-sector makeover of Main Street sites purchased by Buffalo's Blue Cardinal Capital.

– Tom Prohaska

Seneca talks

The mayor of Niagara Falls also hopes the long-running deadlock between the state and the Seneca Nation of Indians is resolved, leading to the resumption of casino revenue for the City of Niagara Falls and Buffalo, and perhaps the beginning of talks on a new casino compact to replace the one that expires in 2023.

"The Nation and the state have both recognized the need to begin new compact negotiations as soon as the current health crisis abates," a statement from the Seneca Nation said.

– Tom Prohaska

Mayor-Byron-Brown

Politics

Political observers in the new year will once again train their eyes on Byron W. Brown, as he contemplates a race for a record fifth term as mayor of Buffalo.

"Strive for Five" seems to be the unofficial slogan of Brown's supporters in 2021, though a federal grand jury concentrating on City Hall activities could still affect the mayoral contest. If Brown enters the race, as most close to him expect, he will compete for a fifth term and the possibility of 20 years leading New York's second largest city – a feat accomplished by no mayor before him.

Community activist India Walton already has thrown her name into the ring to try to become Buffalo's first female mayor.

The coming year's county scene will be dominated by contests for sheriff and comptroller. Several Democrats and Republicans are already angling to succeed retiring Republican Sheriff Timothy B. Howard, while Republican Comptroller Stefan I. Mychajliw Jr. is expected to decide soon about running for re-election as he also ponders a race for Hamburg town supervisor.

– Robert J. McCarthy

Washington

The new year in Washington won't begin in earnest until Jan. 20 for two reasons, one obvious and one not.

That's the day Joe Biden will be inaugurated as president – but that's also around the time that Congress will reconvene knowing the exact shape of the U.S. Senate over the next two years.

Control of the Senate hinges on two runoff elections in Georgia on Jan. 5: If Democrats oust the two Republican incumbents, Democrats will control the Senate, but if the GOP can win just one of those races, divided government will continue in Washington.

At stake is the Biden agenda and everything it could mean in Buffalo, from state and local Covid-19 aid to a massive infrastructure bill that could help rebuild the region's highways. Those items would have a much easier time passing if Biden's fellow Democrats win the Senate.

– Jerry Zremski

Upsizing town boards

This year's elections in Orchard Park and Evans will feature two additional council seats that will be added to each town board Jan. 1, 2022.

Both towns were caught up in the downsizing bandwagon championed by regionalism activist Kevin Gaughan in 2009, and reduced the number of board members from five to three. Since then, residents pushed for more people making decisions in their towns.

Hamburg, West Seneca and Alden also went from five to three board members. Only Alden's Town Board remains at three members.

– Barbara O’Brien

A Buffalo budget hole

The new year will be a challenging one for the City of Buffalo, in more ways than one.

Mayor Byron W. Brown and Common Council members will have to confront a budget hole. The city included $65 million in pandemic aid that didn't come in the budget, which runs through June 30. Now, officials may have to figure out how to close that gap.

Reapportionment also is coming up again in 2021. Every 10 years, based on U.S. Census data, Common Council districts are redrawn so that Council members represent similar-sized areas.

– Deidre Williams

Suspended officers

The criminal case against two Buffalo police officers charged with felony assault for pushing a 75-year-old protester in front of City Hall is winding its way through the court.

Martin Gugino suffered a serious head injury when he fell backwards. A cellphone video of the incident shared on Twitter was seen by millions around the world.

The officers, Robert McCabe and Aaron Torgalski, were suspended without pay for a month and were charged with felony counts of assault.

– Maki Becker

Police discipline

Expect the curtain that hides the misdeeds of police to be lifted, inch by inch, in the new year.

With June's repeal of the law that kept police disciplinary records closed from public view, police departments in New York are required to fulfill the public's Freedom of Information requests for records on long-buried internal affairs cases.

News organizations, think tanks and special-interest groups have flooded police agencies in New York with requests for the disciplinary files that a section of the state's Civil Rights Law, known as 50-a, had kept hidden.

If the repeal of 50-a survives the expected court challenges, and police departments don't flout those records requests, the public should get a better view of how disciplinary cases were handled and the extent to which police commanders kept problem officers on the payroll.

– Matt Spina