Together with colleagues and students at the University of Arizona's department of atmospheric sciences, we are improving projections of future climate for the Southwestern United States.
Scientists use computer models to project the world's future climatic conditions. However, these methods - known as "global climate models" - lack the detail needed to make projections useful to local decision-makers.
That's particularly true for the mountainous terrain of the Southwest. We are solving the problem by feeding information from the global climate models into regional climate models specially designed for the Western United States.
Our work shows that by the second half of the 21st century, the Southwest's climate will likely be characterized by decreased precipitation in winter, the most important season for water replenishment.
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However, when large winter storms do arrive, they will likely be more intense because the atmosphere can carry more water in a warmer climate. This means, for example, that storms so severe that they only occur once every 50 years could bring 4 to 26 percent more precipitation. Lower levels of winter precipitation overall coupled with fewer but more intense storms mean more dry days between storms.
One potential consequence for the Southwest is less water available for the population, the economy and the natural resources of the region. Another is having to redesign any water infrastructure that cannot handle the increased intensity of future storms.
About the scientists
Francina Dominguez is an assistant professor in the University of Arizona's department of atmospheric sciences. She is a hydroclimatologist working on land-atmosphere interactions and the impact of future climate change on hydrologic systems.
Christopher L. Castro is an associate professor in the University of Arizona's department of atmospheric sciences. His research involves using of regional atmospheric modeling to improve weather forecasts and climate projections.
Experience Science
• Francina Dominguez's webpage: www.atmo.arizona.edu/~dominguez/Site/Home.html
• Christopher Castro's webpage: clcastroatmo.wordpress.com/
• UA Hydrometeorology Program:
