Local opinion: High stakes of crime policies in Pima County’s Democratic primary

In the Pima County Democratic primary election, criminal justice reform has emerged as a central issue, with particular resonance in communities of color that often bear the brunt of both crime and flawed policing practices. While well-intentioned reforms aim to improve the equity and effectiveness of the justice system, any perception of being “soft on crime” can be politically damaging for Democrats at all levels.

I say this as a Democrat whose business recently experienced a burglary where the suspects drove a stolen car into our store, tried to steal cash and inventory, and left a running Kia in our lobby. This happened about three weeks ago and caused over $20,000 worth of damage. Because a lot of glass was broken, it is very costly to replace it, including the labor costs. When property is damaged or vandalized, filing an insurance claim increases general liability premiums. When businesses incur these costs, they either raise prices, lock inventory, or simply shut down. These forces are not political but are more rooted in common sense cause and effect.

The government’s fundamental responsibility is to ensure public safety for all residents. In Pima County, crime rates and the sense of security in neighborhoods are key concerns for voters, especially in historically underserved areas. If a candidate seems weak on addressing crime, it can significantly undermine their support, particularly among moderate Democrats, independent swing voters, and communities of color seeking tangible improvements in safety and police-community relations.

Moreover, increased crime has cascading effects on the entire community, with communities of color often hit hardest. As crime rates rise, property values tend to fall as neighborhoods become less desirable. This decline often leads to reduced business investment and activity, as retail businesses may be reluctant to operate in areas perceived as unsafe. Consequently, sales tax revenues, a key funding source for local municipalities, naturally take a hit.

Recognizing this, one innovative idea is for municipalities like the City of Tucson to provide temporary sales tax rebates to businesses that experience crime-related property damage in lieu of filing insurance claims that would result in inequitable premium increases. This would provide tangible financial relief, help affected businesses stay afloat, preserve local economic activity, and demonstrate that the government has some “skin in the game” when it comes to the impacts of crime.

The potency of the crime issue extends beyond Tucson and Pima County to state and federal governments as well. In close statewide and Congressional general elections, a shift in voter sentiment on crime and public safety therefore can tip the balance and decide the outcome.

With the high-stakes 2024 elections on the horizon, Pima County Democrats will need to strike a balance between advocating for criminal justice reform and demonstrating their commitment to public safety. They should advocate for evidence-based policies that address root causes of crime such as poverty, lack of opportunity, failing schools, and untreated mental health issues, while still ensuring violent and repeat offenders face consequences.

Democrats should engage with law enforcement and community leaders to support effective community policing initiatives, reintegration and recidivism reduction programs, youth intervention efforts, and increased transparency and accountability in policing. Drawing on the lived experiences of neighborhood associations, neighborhood businesses, domestic violence shelters, and transit employees should help craft policies that are both effective and equitable.

In the Pima County July primary and beyond, Democrats will need to deftly navigate the tension between criminal justice reform and public safety, focusing on proven strategies to ensure we do not see a dramatic drop in business activity, property values, and municipal sales tax collection. Pima County also needs a high-integrity single source of truth on local crime data. Based on the research I have done, I believe Pima County needs new Democratic leadership including Mike Jette as County Attorney and Edgar Soto on the Board of Supervisors.