Few political insiders keep their finger more firmly on the pulse of this year’s presidential election than Steve Greenberg.
The spokesman for the Siena poll at Siena College in Loudonville has been around a long time. He worked for top Albany Dems like Assembly Speakers Mel Miller and Saul Weprin, as well as Comptroller H. Carl McCall. His current public affairs firm finds itself in the thick of policy and politics in New York State.
Now in 2020, the surveys conducted by Siena’s Don Levy for the New York Times are landing on Greenberg’s desk, and provide him with one of the best vantage points in the nation. This year alone, Siena and the Times have polled the presidential contest 17 times in 14 battleground states, as well as one national survey. He not only sees, but dissects, them all.
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Greenberg is a Democrat – always has been, always will be. But he plays it straight in interpreting Siena’s surveys, even if his inner Democrat must like what he sees.
“The election map, at the moment, looks very challenging for the incumbent,” he told the Politics Column a few days ago.
The best election analysts will look at the national surveys, like the Real Clear Politics average that shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading President Trump by almost 10 points. But then the experts delve into the individual states – the places with the all-important electoral votes. That’s where Greenberg sees some interesting numbers.
He notes that Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton 306 to 232 electoral votes in 2016, with 270 needed to win. The national polling had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 points. She won by 2.1 points. Greenberg called the popular vote polling “very accurate.”
This year presents new math.
“Trump can lose 36 electoral votes and still win, 270 to 268,” he said, observing that in 2016 Trump won six states (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin) with 99 electoral votes that prove battlegrounds again this year. Then he points to three Clinton states the Repubs covet in 2020 (Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire), and notes the heavy lift. Siena has Biden up by nine points in Minnesota, six in Nevada, and three in New Hampshire.
This year, barring major surprises, Greenberg sees the Democrats entering the fray with more than 200 electoral votes – a pretty good head start. But then he watches them competing in normally solid Republican turf like Texas and Georgia.
“What does that say about the Republicans’ electoral map?” he asks.
Siena’s latest surveys show Biden leading by six points in Nevada and one point in Ohio – the state many consider the most bellwether of them all. But a one-point lead tells us little now – it is very much a statistical tie.
All of this underscores the lead that Biden appears to be building in several key states – or just as significantly – his competitiveness in battlegrounds usually chalked up for the GOP.
“The Democrats are competing in Georgia and Texas, and because of the Senate, in South Carolina and Montana,” Greenberg said. “So, they’re playing in Trump country.”
For sure, pollsters and every other pundit were blindsided by Trump’s electoral college victory in 2016. Lots of them never saw Trump pulling off what he did.
Greenberg says in 2020, there is more and better polling in key states – perhaps because of the lessons learned in 2016. And maybe because of 2016, he won’t discount anything – especially with more than three weeks to go and early voting underway.
Siena may poll more states for the Times in coming days during a period that will prove the most intense election-watching in the nation’s history. Greenberg says nobody should arrive at any conclusions because “every day is an adventure.” As with all polls, they provide only a snapshot of a moment in time.
Now, Greenberg says lots of pundits are arriving at “by the book” conclusions, even though 2020 is already dispensing its own lessons.
“This year,” he said, “there is no book.”
