The 'other' Erie County: Presidential election's 'ground zero' among battleground counties

ERIE, Pa. – It was no coincidence that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden chose a union training center in suburban Erie on Saturday evening to tout his job creation and economic development plan.

The "other" Erie County – the one just over the border in northwestern Pennsylvania – ranks as a key battleground for both Biden and President Trump. It may also paint the most accurate picture of the deep political divide dominating the 2020 presidential election.

Normally a 3-to-2 Democratic enclave, Erie County, Pa., nevertheless voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. And again this year, Erie's amalgam of urban, suburban and rural voters casts it as the ultimate battleground – a key swing county in a key swing state.

"Philadelphia and Pittsburgh hog the spotlight, but Erie could be ground zero in the battle for Pennsylvania," said Dave Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report. "Erie twice had double digits for Barack Obama, but Biden is looking to snatch it back. If he does, he's almost certainly on track to carry the state."

That is why reporters from around the globe are descending on the county of about 270,000 people to gauge feelings in a crucial battleground. And why Eric Trump spoke at a local rally a few weeks ago. And it is why Biden toured the plumbers union facility in Summit Township on Saturday (his seventh Pennsylvania visit since September), seeking the same voters outside the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh who may again determine the commonwealth's 20 electoral votes – and the next president.

"In Pennsylvania, you've got these pockets of blue surrounded by big swaths of red," said Erie County Executive Kathy Dahlkemper, a Democrat who said too much attention focused on Philadelphia and Pittsburgh four years ago.

"But we're very different from the East, we're more Midwest, and suffering from the manufacturing issues in our country," she added.

Ask just about any voter in Erie County, Pa., about the local role in the presidential election and the conversation turns to signs. Sure, they acknowledge, signs don't vote. But they point to the plethora of Biden-Harris placards in Erie, a Democratic city, and then to the Trump-Pence offerings throughout the suburban and rural areas.

Republicans complain that Trump signs are regularly stolen or defaced, and Democrats say they can't supply enough for their Biden supporters. It all seems to underscore the chasm between Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, Trumpers and Biden backers.

'Rioting' versus 'divisiveness'

At GOP headquarters on Edinboro Road a few days ago, a steady stream of Trump loyalists wandered in to grab one of the hundreds of stacked signs and other gear ready for distribution. Some want a standard "Make America Great Again" hat, others seek signs or bumper stickers. Just about everybody has a comment.

"I've always thought liberalism is a mental disorder," grumbled one visitor as he picked up a "Jobs not Mobs" sign.

Indeed, the crew staffing the rural office seemed to reflect that sentiment and all of the other themes espoused by the president. Richard and Shirley Brozell, members of the county Republican committee, are concerned about the rising influence of the "far left." They understand and support the Black Lives Matter goals that dominated the national discourse during the summer, but fear the ensuing mayhem in the streets that Trump has catapulted to the center of his campaign.

"Their initial and peaceful protests were great, but then the terrorists took over," said Richard Brozell, a retired contractor who echoes Trump's warnings of "Antifa" radicals and "socialist" dominance should Biden and his Democrats control Washington. 

His wife, Shirley, a retired tavern owner, said voters feel Trump needs four more years to defend the country against "the far left that has gotten too radical."

"If somebody doesn't stop all that rioting, what will happen to our city? What will happen to our county, or to our suburbs?" she asked. "Donald Trump wanted to go to Portland to stop all that, but the Democratic mayor wouldn't let him."

She again pointed to the Trump signs stacked in the office that seem to personify Erie County's political differences.

"I have a neighbor who wanted to put a Trump sign on his lawn but was afraid of the repercussions from liberals," Shirley Brozell said.

"Years ago, we could sit and argue politics and then go out and eat together. Not now," her husband added. "And it's not Trump dividing the country. It's the radical liberals and the media."

Back downtown on State Street, Cindy Purvis was checking on the volunteers at Democratic headquarters. The county committee's vice chairwoman said if one issue is embraced by northwestern Pennsylvania voters, it's the "divisiveness" fostered by the president.

"Democrats are afraid of Donald Trump and his destruction of our institutions," she said. "They see people on the other side who don't want to understand what's really happening. For Republicans and his core supporters, it's only about him and his personality."

Marie Troyer, volunteering after a 34-year teaching career, spends her days building a database of voters and coordinating the volunteers from Buffalo, Rochester and New York City who traditionally work the streets of Erie, because, back home, a Biden victory seems assured.

She believes "that our president has not done the job he was given."

"How many years have we had a Republican president who was elected and then did a good job?" she said. "They cared for the country. That's what I want – a president who cares for the country and not for himself."

She, too, recognizes the widened divisions among her friends and neighbors.

"You can't talk politics around someone who's not in the same group with you," she said, "and that's too bad."

Similar to Erie County, N.Y.

Nobody needs to remind those charged with winning Erie County about the daunting task ahead. Democrats and Republicans alike recognize that Trump triumphed four years ago with a cushion of only 1,957 votes – or 48% to 44%. They also know that since then, the Pennsylvania GOP gained about 160,000 new voters in a state Trump won by about 44,000 votes.

Rep. Mike Kelly, a Republican who has represented the district in Washington since 2011, recites a mantra of familiar Trump praise – but emphasizes that those qualities continue to appeal to Erie blue-collar voters. Kelly believes Biden faces a problem in reclaiming the Democrats who still believe in Trump.

"For whatever reason, he is the blue-collar candidate and the Republican Party under President Trump has become the candidate of the working man and woman," he said. "Tell me one thing he promised to do that he hasn't done. I'd like to know what it is."

Trump faces a stiff challenge now, Kelly says, only because Covid-19 derailed a booming economy marked by low unemployment and rising wages.

"There was this pride that America was back and we were leading the world," he said.

Erie County Democratic Chairman Jim Wertz deals with an urban core about 22% African American, rural and suburban voters who are predominantly white and conservative, and Democrats who vote more conservatively in federal elections – similar to the breakdown in Erie County, N.Y. But unlike their kindred New York neighbors who favored Clinton in 2016, he said, those Democrats in Erie, Pa., handed Trump a win by "looking for a nontraditional politician and rolling the dice."

"Many have thought better of it and are supporting Vice President Biden this time around," he said, adding he is optimistic in 2020 because of better organizing and a historically strong – if unsuccessful – 2018 congressional effort against Kelly in Erie County.

"That tells us there is a very, very strong Democratic base, as well as moderate Republicans looking for common-sense solutions," he said.

Like others around the area, Wertz noted Biden's recent endorsement by Tom Ridge, the Erie native, former governor and Homeland Security secretary. A Republican, Ridge recently wrote in the Philadelphia Inquirer that Trump "lacks the empathy, integrity, intellect, and maturity to lead."

"He sows division along political, racial, and religious lines," Ridge wrote. "And he routinely dismisses the opinions of experts who know far more about the subject at hand than he does – intelligence, military, and public health. Our country has paid dearly in lives lost, social unrest, economic hardship, and our standing in the world."

Wertz, a journalism professor at Edinboro University, says the Ridge letter ranks as an important development in a community that knows and likes their former governor and favorite son.

"Ridge was such a strong force here in Erie County, where he gained support as a pro-choice Republican in a very Catholic town," he said.

Jobs rank as a top issue, Wertz said, but amid the ravages of Covid-19, he sees health care and preserving the Affordable Care Act as the region's main concern. That could be why the commonwealth's top two Democrats – Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey – convened reporters via teleconference last week to link Trump's choice of Judge Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court with the potential end of Obamacare.

Casey labeled the ACA "in mortal danger," and said a vote for Trump means a Barrett confirmation that will ultimately doom health care for millions.

"He will continue to lead his party in the direction of destroying health care in America," Casey said of Trump.

"We have the potential to have good health care," Wolf added, "but without the ACA, we'll go back to a really bad place."

Perilous to predict

Still, Erie County Republican Chairman Verel Salmon, a University at Buffalo graduate, recognizes the slow but steady increase in Pennsylvania's GOP registration as a good sign for Nov. 3. Democratic union members, he said, regularly drop by the Edinboro Road headquarters for Republican registration forms.

He also senses a renewal of enthusiasm for the president as the increasing number of Republicans rally around his cause.

"I have never seen such a frenzy of voter activity in Erie County in my 73 years," he said. "I am observing 10 times as much activity as I did four years ago."

Salmon points to General Electric's sale of its Erie locomotive assembly plant and ensuing erosion of jobs as a local development that draws voters to Trump, who has promised to revive manufacturing.

"Throw in abortion – there a lot of Catholics in the city – and those are the kind of people who think before they vote," he said.

Dahlkemper, the county executive and pro-life Democrat, recognizes the importance of the anti-abortion sentiment that regularly polls 60% approval. And with support for gun rights equally strong, she says running as a Democrat can sometimes prove daunting – even in Democratic Erie County.

"Because of those two issues, we as a larger community are not always aligned with the Democratic Party," she said.

Even among Erie County political professionals, few are willing to predict any Trump-Biden outcome. Democrats cite their organizing efforts; Republicans like their strengthened numbers.

The latest Monmouth University poll shows Biden leading Trump in Pennsylvania 54% to 43%, and the Real Clear Politics average of polls pegs Biden with a 6-point advantage. 

Kelly thinks Trump will carry the area again because the concerns have not changed and he best represents their blue-collar values. He points to a successful economy, more employment and rising wages before Trump and the nation were hit by Covid-19, as well as his administration's response to the virus.

"If not for this president, we would follow the usual government route of taking years to find an answer," he said. "Not this president."

But Dahlkemper thinks Biden appeals more to Erie voters than Clinton, who she said erred by never visiting the area in 2016. The county will return to its Democratic roots, she said.

"The things that Trump said would happen?" she said. "They never really happened."