Getting ready to fill out your March Madness bracket? While it can seem overwhelming, we have the bracket tips you need. Winning your NCAA Tournament pool might seem like a tall task, but we have some tips to consider that will give you a good chance for glory.
March Madness always lives up to its name, so expect plenty of chaos, but the keys are not to go too crazy with the upsets early in your bracket, hit your Final Four teams, and pick the right champion. Picking a few upsets helps, but you don't want to risk an upset pick that eliminates a team that makes a run.
Play for free at The Lines: Pick the Perfect Sweet 16, Win $1,000Â
Now check out my top five March Madness Brackets tips to help you win your NCAA Tournament pool.
People are also reading…
March Madness bracket tip #1: Pick your champion first
Don't get distracted filling out your bracket round by round and get to the end and realize you don't have a team that can actually win the NCAA Tournament.
How do we know what teams can win it all, you might ask? There are three criteria you can use to narrow down possible champions.
100% of champions since 2002 have been in the top 39 for offensive-adjusted efficiency and in the top 23 for defensive-adjusted efficiency on Kenpom, and only one has not been in the top 20 offense.
100% of champions since 2004 have been ranked in the top 12 in the week 6 AP Poll.
100% of champions since 1998 have made it to at least their conference tournament semifinal.
These criteria have correctly picked every NCAA Tournament winner since 2004. This leaves us with just five teams that can win the NCAA Tournament: Duke, Florida, Houston, Auburn, and Tennessee.Â
More from Caleb Tallman: March Madness odds, predictions, sleepers picks
March Madness bracket tip #2:Â Don't pick too many upsets, know the history
What can kill brackets is picking too many upsets. Upsets get all the attention, but in reality, they make up only a few games each tournament.
The criteria we're using for an upset is a team beats an opponent that's at least five seed lines higher, meaning 8-9 and 7-10 matchups don't count.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there has been an average of 8.5 upsets each year. The fewest upsets were three in 2007, and the most upsets were 14 in 2021 and 2022. There is an average of 4.7 upsets in the first round and three in the second round, dropping to 0.25 in the Sweet 16, 0.30 in the Elite 8, and 0.10 in the Final Four. This means that if you have more than one or two upsets or picks per round by the second weekend, you have too many.Â
March Madness bracket tip #3: How to identify potential NCAA Tournament upsets
Here is data from the NCAA on how often first-round upsets occur.
No. 11 seed over No. 6: 39.1%
No. 12 seed over No. 5: 35.26%
No. 13 seed over No. 4: 21.15%
No. 14 seed over No. 3: 14.74%
No. 15 seed over No. 2: 7.05%
No. 16 seed over No. 1: 1.28%
Here is my advice: No 16s over 1s, no 15s over 2s, and if you pick a 14 over a 3, only pick 1. As for 13s over 3s, 12s over 5s, and 11s over 6s, don't pick more than two of any of them, with your total upsets for all three of those seed lines coming between 4-6, maybe even fewer, but definitely not more.Â
March Madness bracket tip #4:Â Crossing out your no-no's before filling out your bracket
Whether they listen to a ton of information, get really into team statistics, or do none of that, March Madness pool participants often talk themselves into Cinderella teams that are going to make magical runs. Looking at this year's bracket, Drake is one team many people love.
Can Drake upset Missouri? Absolutely. I might even say that's a good pick. But take Drake to pull off the upset for one round, maybe two. Don't convince yourself that they can make a Final Four run. Remember, if you miss on the 12, 13, or 14 seed, that makes the Cinderella run, so does 99% of everyone else. It doesn't often happen, and if a low seed you pick to go far loses in the first round, you lose points in your contest every single round; and even if you miss the Cinderella team, everyone else is missing those points, too.
March Madness bracket tip #5:Â Coaching and experience matters
Consider two things when looking at solid teams that can win a few rounds as higher seeds. Who is their coach, and what's their experience level? Is their team a bunch of freshmen, or do they have a solid mix of talent and older, experienced players? Yes, there are exceptions to the rule, like Duke, with their best players being freshmen. They will make at least a Sweet 16 in all likelihood, but what other top teams are good bets to go far?
Teams like Auburn and Michigan State have great coaches, Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo, plus solid veteran players who make up most of their rosters. Teams like Maryland lean too heavily on a star freshman, and so does Baylor. Michigan has a first-year head coach, and so does Louisville. Those are teams that I would look at that could have early exits.
Top sportsbook promos for March Madness
In addition to playing some bracket games, you also may be interested in opening a new sportsbook account to bet some NCAA Tournament games and props. Here are the best March Madness betting promos from our top-rated sportsbooks.
Catena Media provides exclusive sports betting and online gambling content in partnership with FrontPageBets.com and Lee Enterprises, including picks, analysis, tools, and offers to help bettors get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.
Caleb Tallman is an experienced Sports Betting & iGaming Writer. He also serves as a public address announcer for his local high school football team and loves the Detroit Lions and Michigan State Spartans. Caleb graduated from Western Carolina University in 2017.
Player, budget decisions loom as roster transition heats up for Arizona basketball
