Jim Kubiak has been analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for BNBlitz.com. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League, and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a “Doing Your Job” grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback’s responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
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Overview
It took some time, but the Bills, coming off a bye week and a tough loss to the Tennessee Titans rallied in the second half, scoring three touchdowns and a field goal to beat the struggling Miami Dolphins, 26-11.
It wasn’t pretty, particularly in the first half, but Josh Allen’s scintillating second half eclipsed his underwhelming first as he completed 29 passes on 42 attempts for 249 yards and accounted for two passing and one rushing touchdown in the game. Allen also was Buffalo’s leading rusher with 55 yards on 8 rushes. His overall QB Performance Grade was 92%.
Allen was pressing the entire first half, trying his best to get big plays, mostly when they weren’t open and certainly when they were outside his passing progressions. His tendency to choose the high-risk play can be traced to his need to do more than is required of his job on a given play. Open receivers underneath coverage are more valuable than the alluring prospect of deeper shots down the field. His lack of efficiency and patience was the key factor in the Bills’ slow offensive start.
Allen bounced back in the second half as he graded 100% with only three minuses in 42 plays. He operated with patience, poise, focus and the leadership necessary to get the offense on track and doing what it does best, spreading the football around the field and utilizing the short passing game.
Allen completed 21 of 27 in the second half, threw for two touchdowns and ran for a third. Clearly, he regained his composure, and adjusted his approach. This willingness to correct what was not working – looking for the big play – elevated the Bills to victory.
The Dolphins blitzed 25 times on 48 dropbacks, according to News charts, the most any opponent has blitzed against the Bills this season. Allen was 3 for 8 against the blitz in the first half, and 12 for 15 in the second. He totaled 119 yards and two touchdowns.
First quarter
Play selection: Nine plays – three passes, six runs.
Allen: 1 for 3 passing for 1 yard. Two carries for 34 yards.
Performance grade: 89%.
Score: Bills, 3-0.
Allen and the Bills offense ran only nine plays on two possessions. The Bills received the kickoff and went three-and-out on their first series. On third-and-5, Allen escaped to his right and had Stefon Diggs open in front of him as he was rolling to his right. He also had the ability to pick up the first down had he decided to run.
Here, Allen simply missed the gimme, resulting in a quick punt. Miami missed a 36-yard field goal and the Bills took over.
On third-and-10, Allen had another opportunity, and this time he made the most of it.
Allen recognized the Dolphins were in man-to-man coverage down the field. After he broke from the pocket, again to his right, he burst into the open field for a 44-yard gain. This was terrific awareness of man coverage combined with Allen’s tremendous athletic ability.
It was in the very next moment, however, that you could see Allen’s desire to make another big play as he went for it all on a well-covered out-and-up.
Here, it appears Allen’s mind is made up, and he is going deep no matter what the defense does. As you look closely at the footage, you can see running back Zack Moss standing undisturbed and uncovered in front of Allen for what would have been another first down. Miami cornerback Byron Jones did not bite on the double-move out-and-up fake and Allen looks to his right preemptively, trying to influence the free safety away from receiver Emmanuel Sanders. This tells you that Allen was thinking about taking a shot regardless of the coverage.
Completing the throw to Moss or tight end Tommy Sweeney on the other side would have been the right answer for Allen here, but his desire for a big play got the better of him. This take-a-shot mentality wore into the second quarter and caused him to lose his composure in frustration on the sideline. Sure he was fired up at the offensive line and the referees, but he was also frustrated that the offense was sputtering. Miami wasn’t playing great defense; Allen was not attacking the Dolphins’ weaknesses.
Tyler Bass made a 57-yard field goal to give the Bills a 3-0 lead.
Second quarter
Play selection: 16 plays – 14 passes, two runs.
Allen: 9 for 14 passing for 79 yards. One carry for -1 yard.
Performance grade: 80%.
Score: Tie, 3-3.
The first half was one of missed opportunities by both teams. The Bills’ offense struggled as the Dolphins attacked the Buffalo empty formation by blitzing one more player than the Bills could block and playing man-to-man coverage in the secondary. The Bills’ offense, in preparation for the Dolphins’ “amoeba- style” blitz looks, countered with wide receiver screens. One-third of the offensive play calls in the second quarter were screens.
Daboll was trying to use Miami’s aggressive, blitzing posture to the Bills’ advantage, sucking in the defense in toward Allen while getting the football to the outside very quickly. This was a successful strategy as we could hear Allen yelling out “Gold-Rip” and “Gold-Rain,” which appeared to be audible calls for wide receiver screens. Daboll also used an arrow-route screen concept seen here.
This simple idea looks like a quick passing concept, except Jake Kumerow and McKenzie are each tasked with blocking the defender in front of him. This puts the third defender in the difficult position of attempting to cover Gabriel Davis as he heads into the flat.
The most effective and timely screen call of the game, however, came on the Bills’ third possession of the quarter.
Here, the Bills’ offense is lined up in a tight bunch formation to the right with McKenzie zooming in motion to the left side. Allen fakes to Moss and then drops back to pass. Sweeney, who was also aligned to the right, worked back to the left side with McKenzie after the snap to complete the illusion that McKenzie was getting the football.
All of this action influenced the Dolphins’ defense away from the Moss screen on the right side. This was masterful planning and a great drive-starter by Daboll as this easy completion turned into a 16-yard gain.
However, Allen and the Bills ultimately stalled on this drive and ended up in a fourth-and-4 situation.
There is a lot to unpack here, but it comes down to this: Allen thought he had a free play and he wanted to take a shot. It looked as if Jaelan Phillips jumped on the snap count, but after reviewing the play from other angles it became apparent that he did not cross the line of scrimmage. In any event, Allen held the football too long as he tried to do too much, resulting in a late attempt to throw the ball away. It was likely, because of the intentional grounding, that the neutral zone infraction would not have been enforced. Allen lost his focus and composure again on the sideline, perhaps due to the situation and the missed call, but also due to the offense's struggles.
Third quarter
Play selection: 20 plays – 13 passes, seven runs.
Allen: 9 for 13 passing for yards, one passing touchdown. One carry for 5 yards.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Bills, 10-3.
The Bills’ offense and Allen returned to the field in the second half more focused following what might have been their worst half of offensive football on the season. With 11 minutes remaining in the third quarter, the Bills were only 1 for 7 on third downs. As the Bills punted away their first possession of the third quarter, Allen had just 10 completions on 19 attempts for 80 yards and no touchdowns.
Following a Miami offensive possession that resulted in a punt, the Bills managed to avoid a potentially catastrophic special teams blunder. McKenzie muffed his attempted catch and the live ball was nearly recovered for a touchdown by Miami. This seemed to jolt the offense into much-needed action.
Allen took over on his own 25-yard line and put together a 14-play scoring drive. Allen completed 7 of 8 attempts, and he converted two important third-down situations, including this amazing throw to receiver Cole Beasley.
Here, the Dolphins rushed five and played man-to-man in the secondary. Daboll used tight end Sweeney to initially block and then release to assist in the five-man pass protection. The pass protection on this play was the reason Allen and Beasley were able to connect. The Bills stoned the Dolphins’ rush as there was no penetration. Allen was able to survey the field and allow Beasley time to work into the open area in the middle. Without this superb pass protection, Allen and Beasley would not have had the time to make this happen.
Beasley and Allen heated up after this conversion as Beasley caught three more passes in succession to move the Bills into Miami territory and eventually a touchdown.
Here, Allen’s facemask was grabbed by Phillips, and despite the insurmountable distraction this would have been to a quarterback of lesser physical strength, Allen shrugged it off and threw a touchdown.
The design was intended by Daboll to again use McKenzie’s jet motion to influence the play to the left while bringing Davis across the formation to the right. The Dolphins’ defense was perfectly set up to stop the play. They blitzed with a six-man pressure. Jaelan Phillips and Brandon Jones were in position to sack Allen as Moss was unable to account for both. Allen’s pure ability and strength made the play as the Dolphins actually foiled the concept with the blitz.
Allen sidestepped Phillips to make the touchdown throw to the unaccounted-for Davis in the end zone. In a strange way, the Bills failed to account for Phillips and the Dolphins failed to account for Davis. The result was an Allen touchdown because of his superior strength.
The penalty was called and assessed on the ensuing kickoff, but it is worth noting that Allen’s attitude was focused only on what he could do in the second half and much less of what was happening around him. If this play would have happened in the first half, we might have seen him react negatively. In this case, I was most impressed with his ability to put all of the first-half distractions behind him and do what he was made to do, throw touchdowns despite surrounding circumstances.
Ultimately, Allen had only one minus in the third quarter. The simple change in what he started to look for – the short passing game – made all the difference in the outcome.
Fourth quarter
Play selection: 21 plays – 13 passes, eight runs.
Allen: 10 for 12 passing, 92 yards, one passing touchdown. Four carries for 17 yards, one rushing touchdown.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Bills, 26-11.
On the fifth play of the fourth quarter, Allen found Diggs on a post route for his second touchdown of the half.
Allen and the Buffalo offense are not seeing as many blitzes because Allen and the Buffalo wide receivers have been winning their one-on-one matchups. Here, the Dolphins are playing man-to-man with zero deep safeties, Cover 0, and Diggs beats cornerback Xavien Howard, inside on a quick post. Focus on how Diggs, anticipating the blitz, motioned himself slightly inside before the snap.
Allen and Diggs were expecting the blitz, and Diggs was trying to establish and maintain an inside position on Howard. This was high-level preparation and great anticipation. Allen stood in the pocket and delivered a perfectly timed post pattern into the open middle of the field. This throw by Allen demonstrated a couple of things.
• He knew it was a seven-man blitz and that he needed to get rid of the football.
• He knew Miami was in Cover 0 and that he could throw the football early into the middle of the field. This was a mature and knowledgeable strike delivered by Allen as he trusted Diggs to beat his defender to the inside and get to the reception area. A less-seasoned quarterback might have panicked and ran or tried to rifle the ball into the area with too much velocity.
• He knew what he had, he knew he could get the ball off and he delivered with confidence for the knockout blow as the Bills took a 17-3 lead.
The Dolphins came roaring back and capped off their next drive with a touchdown and two-point conversion to close the gap to 17-11.
On the next offensive series, Allen led the Bills on another long 14-play drive.
Beasley and Allen hooked up again for another important completion on third-and-11, which kept the possession from stalling. Without this play, the Bills would have given the football back to the Dolphins halfway through the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead.
Here, the Dolphins bluffed an all out blitz. They made it look as if they were rushing with a seven-man pressure, but they bailed out at the last second. Allen kept his poise and composure and adjusted his eyes down the field to where Beasley was crossing the field. Allen was able to reset his mind from the possibility of having to throw the ball hot to dropping back and surveying the open areas.
With 3:29 remaining, Bass kicked a field goal to cap this drive to make the score 20-11. Both teams had used all their timeouts trying to control the clock and momentum.
On the Bills’ final possession, on third-and-6, Allen scored on a boot pass to the right. He had the ability to throw to Tommy Sweeney or keep the football himself. This was a similar situation to the missed throw to Diggs on the first series. This time, Allen decisively attacked.
Conclusion
Allen scored an overall performance grade of 92%, threw a pair of touchdowns, ran for another and completed 70% of his passes. Allen played flawlessly in the second half and managed to overcome his early eagerness to create plays that weren’t there.
When the Bills have too much time to prepare for an opponent – such as the Steelers in the season opener and the Dolphins coming off the bye – they tend to overthink things. It sometimes appears as if they try to do too much, perhaps because they have so much talent at their disposal.
Allen’s biggest challenge going forward will be controlling and focusing his talents. He has the ability to make any throw on the field, and most quarterbacks don’t have that luxury. Allen is different, and has an extraordinary ability to physically make plays that almost no one else can make. The difficulty is reining himself in. Hopefully, he is learning that his best performances are built around his efficiency, not his long passing abilities. Allen must focus himself on one thing going forward. He must shape his performances around what it will ultimately take to win.
He can be both a greedy “two birds in the bush” type of quarterback as well as an unstoppable “bird in the hand” player. We saw first-hand in this game those two strategies, and I for one, am hoping the “bird in the hand” quarterback returns in the remaining weeks of the season because that version of Allen can win a Super Bowl.
