Bills' roundtable: What's the best first-round matchup for Buffalo?

Vic Carucci

There isn’t a team in the AFC, or the NFL for that matter, that poses anything close to an insurmountable challenge for the Bills in the postseason. They are playing as well as, if not better than, any team in the league. They are hands down, a legit Super Bowl contender.

Still, if there’s an ideal matchup for the Bills’ opening playoff game, it would be the Miami Dolphins.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has done a nice job as a starter in helping to put the Dolphins in contention for a wild-card spot. But he’s still a rookie, he’s still learning on the job and opposing defenses are steadily gaining knowledge about his strengths and weaknesses as a pro. The additional advantage the Bills have is that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll coached Tagovailoa at Alabama, so he can provide invaluable information for the Bills’ defensive game-planning.

Jay Skurski

It’s Miami – and not just for the nostalgia. While the Dolphins coming to Buffalo in January just sounds right, the matchup would be a good one for the Bills. Quarterback Josh Allen has absolutely dominated the Dolphins in his career, going 4-1 in five starts and throwing for 1,328 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also run for 337 yards and three touchdowns.

If the Bills do face the Dolphins, it would set up an interesting scenario in that Miami would be playing in Orchard Park in back-to-back weeks. It’s expected that both teams would keep it vanilla in Week 17, but will that be possible if the Dolphins need the game to clinch a spot, or the Bills need it for the No. 2 seed? Either way, Miami is a favorable matchup. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa does not look to have elite arm talent, which could be problematic in Western New York in January. The Dolphins play hard for coach Brian Flores, but the Bills have a definitive talent advantage.

Mark Gaughan

The Miami Dolphins or the Indianapolis Colts would be good matchups for the Bills, but I’ll go with Miami as the best matchup. The team I think everyone in the AFC wants to avoid – even the Chiefs – is Tennessee. I also would prefer to see the Bills face the Dolphins or Colts than the Ravens. Baltimore is a big threat to Miami’s hold on the final playoff spot, because the Ravens have two easy games remaining. I think the Bills would rather face 39-year-old Phillip Rivers in Buffalo than the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson in the first round. The Colts have relied heavily on the run game of late and their offensive line is great. The defense is good, but they haven’t played as tough a schedule of offenses as Buffalo has played. Cleveland’s combination of run game, Baker Mayfield and edge rusher Myles Garrett worries me a little more than the Colts’ defense.  

A good scenario for Buffalo: Tennessee and Cleveland stay in the Nos. 4 and 5 spots and meet in a rugged first-round matchup. Then the winner (probably the Titans) goes to Kansas City. That’d be a tougher matchup for the Chiefs than the Bills would have facing Pittsburgh (presuming the Steelers and Bills got by the wild-card round). The first-round matchups in the AFC will be competitive. There are no slam dunks.   

Jason Wolf

The Bills’ best matchup in the first round seems like the Miami Dolphins, even though it’s tough to beat the same team three times in one season and it would mean hosting the Dolphins in consecutive weeks.

But the Bills can use the regular season finale to rest starters, in lieu of a playoff bye. And they’d rather face the warm-weather team with the rookie quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa – who’s started just seven games – over Indianapolis’ Philip Rivers, who has a losing record in the playoffs, but has seen everything, and Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield, who’s led the Browns to double-digit victories.

The Dolphins also have a less fearsome rushing attack than both the Colts and Browns, average fewer points overall and have a worse defense in all facets.