The long runup to the NFL draft almost is over. We’re less than two weeks away. With Jay Skurski on vacation, I get to fill in. Here’s what you’re thinking about ...
WNY Watercooler asks: How could any rational person think that Terry Pegula would move the Bills, pay the relocation fee, get sued, lose the Bills’ brand and find another city willing to build him a new stadium?
Mark says: You’re right in the sense that the Pegulas would not want the stain of taking the Bills out of Western New York on their legacy. However, there is a larger truth in play: Never underestimate the willingness of billionaires to play hardball in negotiations and utilize every ounce of leverage at their disposal.
There was pressure on the Pegulas from the other NFL owners to get favorable terms in which the state would contribute a big portion of the stadium cost. The most influential owners – Dallas’ Jerry Jones and the Los Angeles Rams’ Stan Kroenke, to name two – surely were stressing to the Pegulas the idea that New York State and Buffalo are lucky to have you, and public tax money needs to be significant in this deal. Government officials have acknowledged the team mentioned relocation in its initial meetings.
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Had New York State tried to play hardball in negotiations – let’s say the position was we’re not giving you more than $200 million in public funding – there is no doubt the NFL would have publicly and aggressively promoted alternative cities for the Bills. San Antonio, London, wherever. It doesn’t matter. The NFL would have promoted a relocation as hard as possible to get New York to back down.
The NFL could snap its fingers and get two-thirds of the owners to vote to approve leaving Western New York. The track record is clear. The league left Oakland, San Diego, St. Louis, Cleveland and Baltimore.
You might argue: OK, the Pegulas would have rattled the relocation “sabre” very hard, but it merely would have been a negotiating tactic in the end. I say their NFL partners would have pushed them to leave. (Yes, that also would have ruined the Pegulas’ ownership of the Sabres.) But let’s say I’m wrong, and they never would have left (which I think is naïve). It’s still hard to imagine any hardball negotiation in which the state didn’t blink first.
There was no way the state could play hardball unless it was willing to let the Bills walk. This isn’t meant as a knock on the politicians. I don’t think Western New York voters had the appetite for a negotiation “war” with the Bills.
San Diego struggled for 15 years to find a stadium solution. In the end, the Chargers demanded quicker action and had an attractive alternative in Los Angeles. San Diego is a nice city. Buffalo still would be a nice city without the Bills. In my opinion, the Bills leaving would be a bigger bombshell to Buffalo than the Chargers leaving San Diego.
Like anyone, I don't feel good about corporate welfare. But it’s reality in cases in which giant corporations have massive political clout. Look up the tax breaks that Walmart and Amazon get from government. You can’t play hardball unless you’re willing to walk away from the table.
Luigi Mike Speranza asks: Are the NFL and its fans ready for a hard salary cap? The financial machinations that go on are getting a bit ridiculous. I realize that the Bills have an advantage with the brilliant GM Brandon Beane, but it’s getting way out of hand.
Mark says: I don’t think fans are ready for a hard cap. I think fans like to see teams keep their top stars. In recent years the Bills have given big extensions to Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins, Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano. Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Mitch Morse and Jordan Poyer all have been extended under Beane’s watch. That’s good, right?
All those contracts are working out just fine right now. Let’s go back to 2017, when Beane took over. The Bills had LeSean McCoy, Marcell Dareus and Cordy Glenn on big contracts. It wasn’t working out so well. Beane had to get out of cap trouble. If you sign players who don’t provide good value, you tend to have cap problems.
The Bills don’t have unlimited spending power. Beane has decisions to make on Tremaine Edmunds, Dawson Knox, Ed Oliver and Poyer. They’re not all going to get huge, top-of-market deals.
Meanwhile, there are some limits to spending. Kansas City decided it wasn’t worth it to keep Tyreek Hill. Green Bay figured out how to extend Aaron Rodgers but parted ways with Davante Adams.
Dallas is committing $18 million in cap space this year to running back Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are spending more than double at running back than 24 other teams. That’s restricting what Dallas can spend elsewhere. Tennessee is using $40 million in cap space on its quarterbacks this year, second most to Las Vegas. That’s not helping the Titans, because Ryan Tannehill isn’t a top-five QB.
I get it. It seems as if good teams avoid cap problems. But good teams tend to have good players earning their money. The Giants have loads of cap problems this year because the new regime inherited contracts of players who aren’t winning.
The ability to turn base salary to signing bonus conversions, which spreads out more money over future years, allows the NFL cap to be “soft.” That’s not changing because the collective bargaining agreement is signed through 2030.
The NFL cap is $208.2 million this year. The NFL’s new media deals, worth about $100 billion, are expected to kick in starting in 2023. Expectations are the 2023 cap might hit $225 million. Throughout the decade of the 2010s, the cap went up about $10 million to $12 million a year. From 2023 to 2030, it might go up about $15 million to $17 million a year.
One of the big problems with the salary cap is the spending minimum isn’t high enough, in my opinion. Teams are required to spend 90% to the cap over a three-year period, from 2021 to 2023. But that’s 90% of the leaguewide cap ($208.2 million this year), not each team’s adjusted cap, which includes rollover money unspent from the previous year. I’d like to see it higher.
Bill from North Buffalo asks: Shouldn’t the Bills trade some picks to move up a few spots somewhere in the draft? There’s no way all these picks are making the team, right?
Mark says: I think you’re underestimating the draft class. The Bills have eight picks (including two seventh-rounders). Let’s look at need positions: Cornerback, receiver, guard, linebacker, tight end, safety, punter. If the Bills wound up with players at those seven spots, they all would have a great chance to make the team. Throw in offensive tackle, too.
Jeffrey Miller asks: If a player were to retire before the end of his contract, is the guaranteed money due at once, or can it stay prorated out like it had been? That could be devastating to the salary cap.
Mark says: When a player retires, the team is relieved of having to pay the player's base salary and any roster bonus that may become due after that. The team has the option to pursue the return of a portion of the signing bonus he already has received, equal to the unplayed portions of the contract, and that money isn’t counted against the cap. So if he got an $8 million signing bonus over four years and retires after two, he keeps $4 million of the bonus and the team can demand that he give $4 million back.
Bo from Toronto asks: Give us some names to watch for in Round 3 at No. 89 for the Bills.
Mark says: Maryland safety Nick Cross, Ohio State guard-tackle Nick Petit-Frere, Memphis guard-center Dylan Parham, Texas A&M running back Isaiah Spiller, Alabama receiver John Metchie, Nebraska cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert, Memphis receiver Calvin Austin.
NOTE TO DRAFT FANS: My annual Draft Spreadsheet will be done early this week, with 350-some names, measurements and notes. I’ll email it to the first 200 subscribers who message me at mgaughan@buffnews.com.
Thank you for all the questions this week. As a reminder, they can be submitted via email to jskurski@buffnews.com or via Twitter, @JaySkurski.
