South Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District race is a “dead heat,” according to a poll released Friday by the Polling Institute at the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University.
“The 2nd District is living up to its billing as a competitive swing district,” said John Froonjian, Hughes Center executive director. “Turnout in the final days of mail voting and how the few undecided voters break will decide the race. Every vote counts, especially in this election.”
Democratic challenger Amy Kennedy held a one-percentage-point lead, 46% to 45%, over incumbent Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-2nd, according to the poll.
Van Drew is a former Democrat who switched to the Republican Party in December after declining to vote to impeach President Donald Trump.
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Kennedy’s lead is well within the margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
Froonjian said the Stockton poll has some good news for both sides in the race.
“Given other recent polls that have come out showing a slight lead for Kennedy, this poll is good news for Van Drew,” Froonjian said. “That’s not a knock on the other polls. You would expect it to tighten up as we get closer to the election.”
Favoring Kennedy is the fact that more Democrats said they had already cast votes in the election. The poll of 676 likely voters was conducted Oct. 22-27, Froonjian said.
In Atlantic County, for example, the Board of Elections reported that as of Friday, 102,461 ballots had been received. Of those, Democrats had returned 41,866 and Republicans 33,138, while independents had returned 26,949.
“It’s no surprise that this is a close race, but we know the only poll that matters is on Election Day,” said Kennedy’s campaign manager Josh Roesch.
“In the final days, we’re focused on making sure everyone knows how to vote, that everyone is making their voices heard, and that the people of South Jersey know that Amy is ready to fight for them.”
“I’ve gone through a lot of polls,” Van Drew said of his decades running for local, county, state and federal offices.
He said some had him up by more than he eventually won by, and others predicted he’d do worse than he ultimately did.
“They are a snapshot of a moment,” Van Drew said, “especially when a race is this close.”
He, too, said only Election Day really matters.
Another factor that may favor Kennedy is the impact of the presidential race, Froonjian said.
“Biden is leading by 3 points (over Trump in the district),” Froonjian said of presidential candidate Joe Biden. Trump won the district in 2016.
Van Drew led with independent voters — 48% to Kennedy’s 42%. Independent voters are still the biggest voting block in the district, although Democrats recently overtook independents statewide.
Most respondents said they had already voted in this year’s historic mostly vote-by-mail general election. But Froonjian said many Republican respondents had not yet voted less than two weeks from the election.
Six percent were undecided or refused to pick a candidate, and 3% said they are voting for another candidate, according to the poll.
